Projecting 12 stats leaders for the 2024 season

Projecting 12 stats leaders for the 2024 season

February 6th, 2024

With Spring Training just days away and the dawn of a new season upon us, there’s another season that is already underway: projections season.

Whether it's win totals for each club, predictions about which teams will make the postseason or individual stat leaders, the conversations and even debates over these prognostications are always lively.

Let’s consider the third of those categories, using the ZiPS projection system provided by FanGraphs. Sure, there are some notable repeat leaders from last season, such as reigning National League MVP Award winner Ronald Acuña Jr. (projected to lead the Majors with 7.6 fWAR and 140 runs scored), Luis Arraez (.316 batting average), Spencer Strider (15 wins and 234 strikeouts) and Logan Webb (192 innings pitched).

But let’s focus on players projected by ZiPS to lead the Majors in a category they did not lead in 2023.

, Braves: 43 home runs
After the show Acuña put on in 2023, becoming the first player in AL/NL history to hit at least 40 home runs (41) and steal at least 70 bases (73), is there anything this guy can’t accomplish in this game? Particularly in the home run department, 43 seems very doable for the 26-year-old superstar -- he’s already hit 41 homers in a season twice in his young career. What’s two more for the reigning National League MVP?

, Dodgers: 122 RBIs
While it’s true that Ohtani won’t be able to pitch in 2024 due to right elbow surgery last September, there is a silver lining: He’ll be focused completely on hitting. If we thought we had seen his best at the plate, we might have to think again -- without the strain of having to keep himself at the top of his game on the mound, imagine what the greatest baseball talent on the planet could do if all of his considerable energy is focused on what he’s doing at the plate. The Majors’ RBI leader in 2024? That sounds about right, especially when you consider the company around him in the Dodgers’ star-studded lineup.

, A's: 53 steals
It’s hard to think Acuña won’t lead the Majors in steals again after the 73 bags he swiped in 2023. But considering that Ruiz set an American League rookie record with his 67 stolen bases last season, he’s the best candidate to dethrone the great Acuña in that department.

, Yankees: .421 OBP
Wait, Soto didn’t lead MLB in on-base percentage last year? Doesn’t he lead in that category every year? Thanks to Acuña’s historic campaign, Soto did not have the highest OBP in 2023 -- Acuña bested Soto’s .410 mark by six points. But if there’s anyone you’d pick to lead the Majors in on-base percentage, it’s Soto, who walks more than any other player in the game while also doing plenty of damage when he does swing the bat, as evidenced by his career-high 35 homers last season.

, Astros: .592 SLG, 167 wRC+
The crazy thing about Alvarez’s career to this point is that he’s put up prodigious numbers despite having missed significant time due to injury. If he plays in 150 or more games in 2024, we could really see something eye-popping. In five Major League seasons, he’s hit 129 home runs and owns a .978 OPS -- and that’s with playing only two games in the 2020 campaign and never playing in more than 144 games in a season. His career slugging percentage is .588, so a .592 SLG this year would be right in line with his average in that department. And his career wRC+? That would be 166.

, Blue Jays: 179 hits
Nobody in the AL has more hits over the past three seasons than Bichette’s 555. So it stands to reason that he’ll be in the running when it comes to the race for the most hits in baseball in 2024. Bo is coming off an injury-limited season of 135 games, though he did still accumulate 175 hits along with a .306 batting average. A 200-hit season seems only a matter of time for him, so 179 is certainly a reachable figure -- projections are usually conservative, but Bichette is a sound pick in any case.

, Rangers: 41 doubles
Langford? Langford! There’s been a lot of discourse regarding the potential for 2023 No. 1 overall Draft selection Paul Skenes to take the mound for the Pirates just a year or so after being drafted. But Langford, who was selected three picks behind him last June, could very well find himself on the Opening Day roster for the defending World Series champs if he has a strong spring. Could he really lead MLB in a major offensive category like doubles? Considering he had 17 in just 44 games over four levels in the Rangers’ farm system last year -- culminating in a successful, albeit brief, stint at Triple-A Round Rock -- that remarkable feat doesn’t seem out of reach for the 22-year-old.

, D-backs: 9 triples
The reigning NL Rookie of the Year became the first rookie in AL/NL history to hit at least 25 homers and steal at least 50 bases in 2023. His speed is a major part of his game, and while he didn’t lead the Majors in the category last year, he did lead the NL with 10 triples. With a Sprint Speed of 30.1 feet per second (99th percentile) and a baserunning run value of +5 (also in the 99th percentile), taking the extra base is a customary part of Carroll’s craft. That could lead to a lot of three-baggers in '24.

, Mets and , Giants: 35 saves
Díaz missed the entire 2023 campaign after injuring his right knee during the World Baseball Classic last spring. But now that he’s healthy again, there’s no reason to believe he won’t be as dominant as he was before he got hurt. In '22, the right-hander was about as automatic as it gets, posting a 1.31 ERA with 32 saves and an incredible 50.2% strikeout rate for the Mets.

Doval, meanwhile, has quietly become one of the best closers in the game. In his age-25 season last year, he tied for the NL lead with 39 saves while pitching to a 2.93 ERA for the Giants.

, Phillies: 4.9 pitcher fWAR
Fresh off a seven-year, $172 million contract extension with Philadelphia, Nola is projected to be the most valuable pitcher in the game, by fWAR, in 2024. The veteran right-hander has had his ups and downs, and there’s been some inconsistency in his performances over the years. But when he’s on, he’s one of the very best starters in baseball. He’s had two top-four Cy Young Award finishes and is just a year removed from leading MLB with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 8.1. If ’24 is a “good” Nola season, it could be great for the Phils.

, Mariners: 3.27 ERA
The caveat here is that Castillo is the projected ERA leader among qualified starters in 2024. In other words, he has the lowest projected ERA among starters projected to pitch at least 162 innings (to qualify for the ERA title, a pitcher must throw at least one inning per team game during the season). Castillo is projected to pitch 176 innings this year, and though the Rangers' Jacob deGrom, the Rays' Shane McClanahan and free-agent right-hander Brandon Woodruff are all projected to finish the season with a lower ERA, none are projected to hit the qualifying innings threshold. Castillo finished fifth in AL Cy Young Award voting last year after posting a 3.34 ERA over 197 innings for Seattle in his third All-Star season.