And the winner of the 2024 HR Derby is ...

A very early prediction of the Derby field 5 years down the road

July 5th, 2019

The field is now set for the 2019 Home Run Derby. One of the fun aspects of the Derby is seeing players in the event you’ve never seen before. It is one thing to hear about how far Blue Jays phenom can hit the ball; it is quite another for him to announce his obscene power on the big stage for the world to see. But it’s just as enjoyable to see an old hand go out and dominate the competition like he has in the past; the joy of the 2014 Derby was watching successfully defend his own title.

That 2014 competition, by the way, featured:

• Cespedes

• Jose Bautista



• Justin Morneau

Look at that list. Five years later, two participants (Bautista, Morneau) are out of baseball, and three others (Stanton, Tulo, Cespedes) are riddled with injuries. The best current hitters from that Derby are Todd Frazier and Adam Jones. (What a bummer, by the way, that Puig’s one appearance in the Home Run Derby ended with … zero homers.) The point is: Five years is a long time.

But, just to be masochists, we thought today we’d try to predict what the Derby lineup will look like five years from now, at an All-Star site that is yet to be determined. (Note: Please do not revisit this article in five years.)

, 1B, NYM (current age: 24)

Will Alonso be bored with the Home Run Derby by 2024? It might depend on whether he has won it by then, because it’s not like he’s going to have any less power or be any less popular. (If he can break through and be a fan favorite with the way this Mets season has gone, he has undeniable staying power.) If there’s one player who ends up becoming the Cespedes of future Derbys, our guess is that it’s Alonso, who will make his Derby debut on Monday night.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, TOR (current age: 20)

Guerrero will still be under contract for two more years with the Jays, and you have to think they’ll be a lot more competitive by then than they are now. The only question with Vlad is whether he will have finally won the Derby he’s destined to win by 2024 … or whether he’ll be going for his sixth win in a row. At some point, he and his dad are going to be the only father and son to win Derbys, whether it’s this year or in 2024.

, OF, SD (current age: 23)

By 2024, The Padres Project will be in full bloom, and if Reyes can figure out plate discipline by then, he could be a superstar. Even if he’s not, he’ll still be able to hit the ball to the moon.

Adley Rutschman, C, BAL (current age: 21)

The 2019 No. 1 overall pick will be 26 years old in 2024, just entering the prime of his career. By then, he’ll be leading the Orioles’ resurgence under the management team they hired way back in 2018, and quite possibly the most exciting young star in the game. Fun fact, by the way: No catcher has ever won the Home Run Derby, so maybe he’ll be the first!

, OF, CHW (current age: 22)

Jimenez is establishing himself, especially of late, as the prodigious slugger we all thought he was going to be, and by 2024, shoot, the way baseball is going, he may already be approaching 200 career homers. This guy hit a home run with a broken bat; imagine what he can do in a Derby?

Andrew Vaughn, 1B, White Sox (current age: 21)

He was the top power prospect in the draft, so if we include Rutschman, we have to include him. It is not difficult to imagine Vaughn and Jimenez wearing those cool black White Sox jerseys and launching baseballs deep into the night. Vaughn seems destined to be a crowd favorite because for such a power hitter, he's not particularly tall. That doesn't matter when your swing looks like this:

, OF, Astros (current age: 22)

We're already getting a sense of the massive power Alvarez brings to the table. He, Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger are the only players to have reached the 30-homer plateau this year (including Minors for Alvarez), and the only issue is figuring out where to fit him (and Kyle Tucker, for that matter) in this Astros lineup for the next half-decade. I mean, Astros fans are already selling T-shirts dedicated to the guy. Imagine what it's going to be like in five years.

, OF, LAA (current age: 27)

Someday, right? Someday he’ll decide he’s tired of having everyone harangue him about joining the Derby and just do it already, won’t he? We can all dream.