Let’s predict the rest of the ASG rosters
The fans have spoken, and the starting lineups for the 2019 All-Star Game presented by Mastercard, set to be played in Cleveland on July 9, are set.
So: Now what?
Now, in a lot of ways, comes the fun part. The fans have selected 17 players (eight in the National League, and nine, including a designated hitter, in the American League), but that's hardly the entire roster that will show up at Progressive Field, because each side brings 32 players. That means the NL has 24 more names to add, and the AL has 23. That's 47 more All-Stars. Who will they be?
Let's see if we can figure out what is essentially a giant jigsaw puzzle, because this isn't just "name 47 more great players." There are rules that need to be adhered to when rounding out the rest of the rosters.
• Both leagues must have 20 position players and 12 pitchers.
• Player vote to select one backup for each position, along with eight pitchers.
• The Commissioner's office selects the remaining 14 players (8 NL, 6 AL).
• All-Star managers (Dave Roberts and Alex Cora) no longer have a say.
• Every Major League team must be represented.
Remember: We're trying to guess what will happen, not what "should" happen, and the player vote is traditionally more about the back-of-the-baseball-card Triple Crown stats over the first two months of the season, rather than more advanced metrics or longer timeframes. (Sorry, Lance Lynn.) That means this roster is going to be different than your roster. That's sort of the point.
Seventeen names down. Forty-seven more to go. Here's a best guess as to how it might look.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Pitchers
Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD
Max Scherzer, WSH
Jacob deGrom, NYM
Luis Castillo, CIN
Zack Greinke, ARI
Clayton Kershaw, LAD
Mike Soroka, ATL
Caleb Smith, MIA
Josh Hader, MIL
Kirby Yates, SD
Will Smith, SF
Felipe Vazquez, PIT
Ryu has a 1.27 ERA. He probably doesn't need to worry about making the All-Star team. He'll probably start the game.
Pitcher selections tend to be a combination of "low ERA" (Ryu, Soroka, Castillo), "big names having good years" (Scherzer, Greinke, Kershaw, deGrom), "tons of saves without a high ERA" (Yates, Will Smith, Hader, Vazquez), and "players needed so that every team has a selection" (Caleb Smith, though to be fair he's also struck out more than 11 per nine, and should be back from the injured list next week).
You can credibly argue for Walker Buehler or Cole Hamels or Stephen Strasburg or Kenley Jansen or Amir Garrett here, and you wouldn't be wrong. "Too many good players, not enough spots" is going to be a recurring theme.
Catcher
Starter: Willson Contreras, CHC
Reserves: Yasmani Grandal, MIL; J.T. Realmuto, PHI
Contreras (.300/.395/.586) easily earned this spot, and Grandal (.266/.377/.536 with 18 homers and excellent pitch framing) should get the backup spot without much controversy. Here's the real question, though: Who's next? Long-time stars like Buster Posey and Yadier Molina haven't had strong seasons, and Realmuto has provided far more value on defense than with his bat (.261/.318/.434.) Still, All-Star teams almost always have three catchers, and the likes of Tyler Flowers and Brian McCann haven't done enough to push their way on. We’ll assume Realmuto makes it as the lone Philadelphia representative.
Apologies to: no one, really
First base
Starter: Freddie Freeman, ATL
Reserves: Josh Bell, PIT; Pete Alonso, NYM
Good luck picking between Freeman, Josh Bell and Pete Alonso, who all had various cases to start. Freeman won, so Bell and Alonso should be relatively slam-dunk choices to be reserves -- so long as no one goes with the long-term track record of Anthony Rizzo over the rookie-year power display of Alonso. Really, what stands out here is who probably won't make the team, because Rhys Hoskins, Max Muncy and Rizzo have each been very good. Imagine if Paul Goldschmidt, Daniel Murphy, Joey Votto, or Jesús Aguilar were playing up to expectations?
Bad news for their teams. Good news for trying to put together an All-Star roster.
Apologies to: Hoskins, PHI; Muncy, LAD; Rizzo, CHC
Second base
Starter: Ketel Marte, ARI
Reserve: Mike Moustakas, MIL
Marte's huge breakout (.316/.364/.585) -- hit the ball hard and in the air, kids -- makes him a deserving starter here, and we'll assume that Moustakas gets the backup slot. Adding second base to his resume helps him here, because second base in the NL is much thinner than third base is, but that shouldn't sell short the fact that a multi-positional guy hitting .280/.356/.584 with 23 homers is having a very strong year.
Apologies to: Howie Kendrick, WSH; Ozzie Albies, ATL
Shortstop
Starter: Javier Baez, CHC
Reserve: Trevor Story, COL
Baez is an easy and deserving choice, and then it gets a little complicated. Paul DeJong started out red-hot, but he has scuffled for weeks. Fernando Tatis Jr. looked great before he got hurt, and has looked great since returning, but he still hasn't reached even 200 Major League plate appearances after missing all of May. Story continues to impress on both sides of the ball, but you never know how the players will consider a Colorado hitter with a 1.074 OPS at home and a .774 mark on the road. (He's also currently sidelined with a thumb injury.)
We're guessing that Story will get the edge here, though he may end up being replaced anyway if he can't return from the thumb in time to play.
Apologies to: DeJong, STL; Tatis, SD
Third base
Starter: Nolan Arenado, COL
Reserves: Anthony Rendon, WSH; Kris Bryant, CHC; Justin Turner, LAD
You thought first base was stacked? Every single year, we realize that the hot corner in the NL is historically loaded. Rendon (.313/.402/.625), who probably should be the starter here, still hasn't even made a team yet, despite three Top-12 MVP finishes. He'll make one this year, as will Bryant, who looks back to his MVP-caliber form. Will a fourth third baseman make it? If so, who? It's not hard to see Justin Turner, hitting .300 yet again, getting a spot.
Apologies to: Josh Donaldson, ATL; Manny Machado, SD; Eduardo Escobar, ARI
Outfield
Starters: Christian Yelich, MIL; Cody Bellinger, LAD; Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL
Reserves: Marcell Ozuna, STL; Jeff McNeil, NYM; Charlie Blackmon, COL
Yelich and Bellinger are neck-and-neck for the NL MVP, and Acuna is having a good season as one of the brightest young stars in baseball, so the top three makes sense. After that, well, we're trying to read the tea leaves here. Jeff McNeil is hitting .346, second-best in the Majors, so he'll probably make it. We haven't added a Cardinal yet and probably won't on the pitching side, so Marcell Ozuna (20 homers with a .519 slugging and the fifth-most RBIs in baseball) fits here, again trying to assume what the players will look at.
And then? Pick from a half-dozen guys. We'll assume that Blackmon's massive home-road splits won't be enough to prevent him and his .325/.371/.629 line from earning a spot. You could also just take the "barely missed" guys and still end up with a pretty great outfield. There's that many good players out there.
Apologies to: Juan Soto, WSH; Joc Pederson and Alex Verdugo, LAD; Hunter Renfroe, SD; Michael Conforto, NYM; Bryan Reynolds, PIT
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Pitchers
Justin Verlander, HOU
Gerrit Cole, HOU
Mike Minor, TEX
Lucas Giolito, CHW
Charlie Morton, TB
Jake Odorizzi, MIN
Jose Berrios, MIN
Marcus Stroman, TOR
Shane Greene, DET
Ryan Pressly, HOU
Aroldis Chapman, NYY
Brad Hand, CLE
Verlander fills the "obvious Hall of Famer having a Cy Young-caliber" season role, while Giolito is having his long-awaited breakout and Minor, Morton and Stroman have been various flavors of "very good." (Stroman and Morton are also their team’s lone reps here.) Neither Odorizzi nor Berrios have been quite as good as their shiny ERAs, but they have indeed still been good, and wins and ERA sell at this time of year. Cole, meanwhile, leads the AL in strikeouts.
In the bullpen, we'll assume Greene gets the Detroit nod over teammate Matthew Boyd because he has a 0.90 ERA with 21 saves, though both are deserving. Chapman and Hand both bring the ERA and the saves; Pressly (1.31 ERA, 39/4 K/BB) isn't a closer, and that's often tough to fit on an All-Star team, but we have to imagine everyone saw him set the Major League record for most consecutive scoreless appearances earlier this year, right?
Catcher
Starter: Gary Sánchez, NYY
Reserves: James McCann, CHW; Omar Narvaez, SEA
Last winter, the White Sox swapped Narvaez to Seattle in a deal for reliever Álex Colomé, then signed McCann to replace him. Now, they may be All-Star teammates in Cleveland. McCann's stellar .328/.387/.520 line may be buoyed by a likely unsustainable .413 BABIP, but that doesn't change how productive he's been so far this year. Narvaez has followed up last year's breakout .275/.366/.429 with an even better. .292/.370/.469 follow-up, though the fact he might be the lone Seattle rep helps him break out from the pack here.
Apologies to: Mitch Garver, MIN; Robinson Chirinos, HOU
First base
Starter: Carlos Santana, CLE
Reserve: Luke Voit, NYY
With most of the other first-base options on the ballot at other spots -- we'll get back to some of you in the outfield or at DH -- Voit (.270/.386/.491 with 17 homers) is the clear choice to back up Santana here, as he's proven his late-2018 breakout was hardly a fluke. Some will make an argument for José Abreu since he's leading first basemen in RBIs, but it's difficult to look past the .299 OBP in what's been his weakest season to date.
Apologies to: Abreu, CHW; C.J. Cron, MIN
Second base
Starter: D.J. LeMahieu, Yankees
Reserves: Tommy La Stella, Angels; Whit Merrifield, Royals
In a year where long-time star Jose Altuve has been limited by injury, it's difficult to argue with LeMahieu (.336/.385/.522) atop the list here, as his transition from Denver to the Bronx has been a smashing success. Behind him, La Stella, Merrifield and Tampa Bay's Brandon Lowe have all been about equally valuable in different ways, but we're guessing La Stella gets a spot because of the narrative around his power breakout -- his 16 homers are more than he had in the previous five seasons combined -- and so does Merrifield because he keeps hitting over .300 with double-digit steals. That's arguable, but he at least fills our Royals spot, too.
Apologies to: Lowe
Shortstop
Starter: Jorge Polanco, MIN
Reserves: Xander Bogaerts, BOS; Francisco Lindor, CLE
Now we're getting back into the positions where there's simply more talented players than spots available. Polanco's a deserving starter. Bogaerts will probably get the player's vote because he's flirting with .300 and leading AL shortstops in RBIs. Then it gets complicated: The A's Marcus Semien has a strong case, but ones that rely on defense are tough sells here. Ankle injury aside, Tim Anderson is deserving, hitting .317 on his way to a 20/20 season. The Yankees' Gleyber Torres and his 19 homers and .549 slugging is deserving. They can't all make it.
Our guess is the biggest name of all, albeit one who's taken a bit to get his season back to its normal levels: Francisco Lindor. With José Ramírez continuing to struggle and Corey Kluber injured, it's difficult to see a Cleveland All-Star Game without a hometown hero, Santana aside.
Apologies to: Semien, Torres and Anderson
Third base
Starter: Alex Bregman, Astros
Reserves: Matt Chapman, OAK
With Frankie Montas suspended and Blake Treinen unable to repeat his fantastic 2018, Chapman seems the most obvious Oakland representative, though he's not merely a token addition, thanks to 19 homers, a .534 slugging percentage, and some of the most elite third base defense around. There are cases to be made for a few others, but as much as 22-year-old Rafael Devers and his .322 average might deserve it, there’s just not room on the roster.
Apologies to: Devers, BOS; Yoan Moncada, CHW; Hunter Dozier, KC
Outfield
Starters: Mike Trout, LAA; George Springer, HOU; Michael Brantley, HOU
Reserves: Joey Gallo, TEX; Trey Mancini, BAL
There's two obvious things to note here: Of course Trout is here, and of course there are more than six deserving candidates. There always are. The fans made three defensible choices in Trout, Springer,and Brantley, and Mancini is the most obvious Orioles candidate -- though he's worth the honor, hitting .298/.356/.548 on his way to his third-straight 20-homer season.
You have to have Gallo, who has returned from injury to continue what had been an MVP-caliber season. (He hit two more home runs in Thursday’s 3-1 win over Detroit.) And then... reigning MVP Mookie Betts, having a good-not-great follow-up? Any of the three deserving Minnesota outfielders? How do you pick between Tampa Bay's Austin Meadows or Tommy Pham, or really how do you not have both? You can't have everyone.
Apologies to: Max Kepler, MIN; Eddie Rosario, MIN; Betts, BOS; Pham and Meadows, TB
Designated hitter
Starter: Hunter Pence, Rangers
Reserve: J.D. Martinez, Red Sox
The currently-injured Pence managed to gain a starting spot from the fans here, a somewhat surprising -- if not entertaining, at least -- choice that somewhat throws a wrench into the expected selections. This could be Martinez, or Edwin Encarnacion, or Nelson Cruz, or Dan Vogelbach. That last name will get this spot if Narvaez doesn't behind the plate, but assuming that's not a requirement here, Martinez seems the safest bet among somewhat similar players.
Apologies to: Encarnacion, NYY; Cruz, MIN; Vogelbach, SEA