Predicting the Opening Day starter for each team

Predicting the Opening Day starter for each team

A running list of the selections

February 13th, 2018

Of the many decisions a manager must make throughout a season, picking an Opening Day starter hardly is the most consequential. After all, every team needs at least five starters -- and almost always more -- to get through a grueling 162-game schedule.
Still, there is no denying that the assignment is a coveted one. Not only is Opening Day special, but being first to take the ball is considered a high honor.
With that in mind, here is a team-by-team breakdown of who is most likely to get the nod in 2018. This list will be kept updated as each club announces its choice leading up to March 29.
Longtime lock
Dodgers:
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts wasted no time making it official on Tuesday. Kershaw will make his eighth career Opening Day start, pushing him past Hall of Famers Don Drysdale and Don Sutton for the Dodgers' all-time record. Kershaw's eight will be consecutive, giving the left-hander the second-longest active streak behind the Mariners' .
Actual OD starter: Kershaw

No doubt about it
Braves:  
Now the unquestioned leader of a young rotation, Teheran already has made four straight Opening Day starts, tied for the third-longest active streak. His fifth would push him past Hall of Famers Tom Glavine and John Smoltz and into a tie for third in Atlanta Braves history.
Actual OD starter: Teheran
Cardinals:
The torch was passed to Martinez last year from . Martinez then made his second All-Star team on his way to crossing the 200-inning mark for the first time.
Actual OD starter: Martinez

D-backs: Zack Greinke
His second season in Arizona went much better than his first, with a 3.20 ERA and a fourth-place National League Cy Young Award finish. This would be Greinke's third straight Opening Day assignment.
Actual OD starter: . A groin injury put Greinke behind schedule and opened the door for Corbin, who got the nod over fellow left-hander Robbie Ray.
Giants:
Like Teheran, Bumgarner has made four straight Opening Day starts, and he should make it five this year. That would break a tie with for the most in total by a Giants pitcher since Hall of Famer Juan Marichal did it 10 times between 1962-73.
Actual OD starter: . It was scheduled to be Bumgarner until a comebacker fractured his pitching hand during his final Cactus League outing. With Jeff Samardzija also hurt and 's schedule not aligned correctly, the assignment fell to Blach.
Indians:
Kluber is the clear ace of a talented rotation as he looks to defend his second American League Cy Young Award. This would extend his streak of Game 1 starts to four, the longest for a Cleveland pitcher since Hall of Famer Gaylord Perry from 1972-75.
Actual OD starter: Kluber

Nationals: Max Scherzer
has four career Opening Day starts, including in 2017, when Scherzer was coming back from a stress fracture in his right ring finger. Assuming good health, Scherzer should get the nod for the third time with Washington as he looks to begin his journey to a third straight NL Cy Young Award.
Actual OD starter: Scherzer
Rays: Chris Archer
In each of the past three seasons, the right-hander has taken the mound for Tampa Bay's first game, and then gone on to throw more than 200 innings. Archer could be the first Rays pitcher to start four years in a row.
Actual OD starter: Archer
Red Sox: Chris Sale
The left-hander deferred last year to , who was then the defending AL Cy Young Award winner. However, Porcello struggled in 2017, while Sale posted a 2.90 ERA and became the first AL pitcher since Pedro Martinez in 1999 to reach 300 strikeouts.
Actual OD starter: Sale

Rockies:
While a foot injury limited him to 20 starts, Gray backed up his first Opening Day assignment by posting a 3.67 ERA, which made him the only Rockies starter to get under the 4.00 mark in 2017. This would be just the second time since 2002 that Colorado used the same Opening Day starter in back-to-back seasons.
Actual OD starter: Gray
Heavy favorites
Blue Jays:  
Going back to 2010, Toronto has used six Opening starters in eight years, including Stroman in '16. got the nod last year, and J.A. Happ enjoyed a stellar season, but the 26-year-old Stroman led the club in innings and ERA.
Actual OD starter: Happ. Because of a shoulder issue, Stroman had to take his time getting ramped up for the season, so he won't pitch until the team's fourth game.
Brewers: Chase Anderson
This would be more complicated if Jimmy Nelson weren't recovering from shoulder surgery, but Anderson's 2.74 ERA last year ranked sixth in the Majors (minimum 100 innings).
Actual OD starter: Anderson
Cubs:
Lester is one of three 2017 Opening Day starters in the rotation, along with (White Sox) and (Rangers). But even with those challengers -- plus -- Lester is the highly respected elder statesman of the group, with six career Opening Day starts to his name.
Actual OD starter: Lester

Padres:
San Diego has some intriguing young talent in its rotation, including and -- both of whom will pitch this season at age 25. But the 34-year-old Richard is by far the team's most experienced starter and was dependable in 2017 before re-signing for two more years.
Actual OD starter: Richard
Phillies:
Of the eight pitchers to make at least 10 starts for the Phillies last season, Nola's 3.54 ERA was the lowest by nearly three-quarters of a run. The righty will be 24 on Opening Day, which would make him to youngest Philly hurler to get such an assignment since Floyd Youmans (also 24) in 1989.
Actual OD starter: Nola
Rangers: Cole Hamels
There isn't an obvious challenger standing in the way of Hamels making his fourth Opening Day start, despite his 4.20 ERA last season.
Actual OD starter: Hamels
Royals: Danny Duffy
The left-hander got the nod last year, and he was Kansas City's most effective pitcher when he was healthy. Returning veterans and both posted ERAs higher than 5.00, while is now a free agent.
Actual OD starter: Duffy

Tigers:
This will be only the second time since 2007 that Verlander won't take the ball for Detroit on Opening Day. With having struggled in a Tigers uniform, Fulmer is the obvious successor as long as he makes a successful return from surgery on a nerve in his right elbow.
Actual OD starter: Zimmermann. New manager Ron Gardenhire surprised a lot of people when he overlooked Zimmermann's 6.08 ERA in 2017, citing his veteran status and leadership.
White Sox:
Shields is one of six active pitchers to make at least seven Opening Day starts, and he could join as the only ones to get the call for four different franchises. While Shields' numbers have dropped off over the past two seasons, the rest of the rotation is extremely light on experience.
Actual OD starter: Shields
Split decision

Astros:  
Verlander's nine career Opening Day starts rank third among active pitchers, though all of those came with the Tigers. The veteran righty seemed to take over as Houston's ace upon joining the World Series champions late last season, but is obviously no slouch and has made the start for the Astros in three straight seasons.
Actual OD starter: Verlander

Mariners:
This could be a fraught decision for manager Scott Servais, as Hernandez is a Seattle legend. Hernandez ranks first among active pitchers with nine straight Opening Day starts and second behind with 10 total, but his performance has dipped of late. Based on recent track record, the ball would go to Paxton. The lefty has faced durability issues, but his 2.61 FIP last season was third lowest in the Majors (minimum 100 innings), behind only Sale and Kluber.
Actual OD starter: Hernandez. King Felix remains the King and will become only the seventh pitcher to start at least 10 consecutive openers.
Marlins: Dan Straily
In Miami's first season following the passing of , Straily and were the only reliable members of the rotation. Straily had the edge in starts (33), innings (181 2/3) and strikeouts (170), although Urena posted the lower ERA (3.82).
Actual OD starter: Urena. Manager Don Mattingly described the choice between Urena and Straily as "almost a coin fiip." But with Straily now dealing with right forearm inflammation, he may not have been able to take the ball anyways.
Mets:
got the call in 2017, but then he missed almost the whole season due to injury. In contrast, deGrom threw a career-high 201 1/3 innings for a team with huge durability issues. If picked, he would be the Mets' seventh Opening Day starter in as many seasons.
Actual OD starter: Syndergaard. deGrom dealt with some back stiffness early this spring -- just enough to push him to the second game of the season.

Orioles:
Gausman was the choice last year and he is one of two pitchers on the Orioles' roster to have started more than six games in 2017. The other is , who posted similar season-long numbers. Gausman, however, produced a 2.70 ERA over his final 14 outings.
Actual OD starter: Bundy. Despite the re-signing of Chris Tillman and the additions of and the recently signed Alex Cobb, Bundy will start his first Opening Day.
Pirates:
With traded to the Astros, the door is open. has the experience and has been solid for the Pirates since arriving in August 2016. But Taillon, the 26-year-old former top prospect, could be the team's next ace and overcame testicular cancer to make 25 starts last year.
Actual OD starter: Nova. The Bucs opted for Nova's experience but will have Taillon start their home opener on April 2.
Yankees:
has gotten the assignment three straight times and is coming off a spectacular postseason performance. But while Severino will be only 24 on Opening Day, he was one of the top starters in the game last year, earning a third-place finish in the AL Cy Young Award race.
Actual OD starter: Severino

Contenders
Angels:  
Richards figures to have the inside track if healthy, but he has managed to pitch just 12 times over the past two seasons. would get the call on hype and pure talent, though it remains to be seen how he looks this spring and how aggressively the Angels push him. , and all could be in the mix if Richards encounters more health problems.
Actual OD starter: Richards
Athletics:
The right-hander stepped in last year for the injured , and with Gray now with the Yankees, the Oakland rotation is an inexperienced bunch. Lefty led the staff in innings (158 2/3), with an ERA (4.37) just slightly above Graveman's (4.19), and he may be the top challenger for the job.
Actual OD starter: Graveman
Reds:
DeSclafani was not one of the 16 pitchers to start at least one game for Cincinnati in 2017 -- he missed the season with a sprained elbow ligament after posting a 3.28 ERA in '16. Therefore, this could be a wide-open race also involving two other pitchers who have dealt with significant recent injuries (Homer Bailey and ). The wild card is , who debuted last June and was brilliant over 15 starts.
Actual OD starter: Bailey. The injury bug bit DeSclafani again, as he sustained a strained left oblique. Out of the remaining options, manager Bryan Price valued Bailey's extensive experience, despite his 6.43 ERA last year. 

Twins:
could have been in line for his third straight Opening Day start for Minnesota, but that was before the recent surgery on his right middle finger. That leaves Berrios as the frontrunner following a breakout season. The 23-year-old could become the Twins' youngest Opening Day starting pitcher since Brad Radke in 1996, although -- or perhaps a late free-agent pickup -- could get the call instead.
Actual OD starter: Jake Odorizzi. Acquired from the Rays on Feb. 17, Odorizzi got the nod over both Berrios and free-agent acquisition , in part due to the schedule. Minnesota wants Berrios to be on the mound on April 17 against the Indians in his native Puerto Rico, and starting the club's third game of the season will line him up for that assignment.