After Ohtani's '23, these players will look for big walk years in '24
In the wake of the historic $700 million deal for Shohei Ohtani to join the Dodgers, we can look at Ohtani’s career to this point and see just why he was offered the largest contract in sports history. And a major component of what landed him that megadeal was a "walk year" for the ages.
Ohtani led the Majors in slugging, OPS and OPS+ while belting 44 home runs and posting a 3.14 ERA with a 31.4 percent strikeout rate on the mound in 2023. While the two-way superstar is in a league of his own, every Major League player on the cusp of free agency wants to enter the open market on the heels of a great performance.
The most prominent name in this category is one that also made some big news recently -- Juan Soto was sent from the Padres to the Yankees in a blockbuster trade with one year remaining on his current contract.
So, as we look ahead to a year from now, when the 2024 offseason is underway, which players might be looking to cash in following a prodigious campaign? Here’s a look at some notable names that could be on the market after next season:
Juan Soto, OF
Soto reportedly turned down an extension offer from the Nationals for 15 years and $440 million before being traded to the Padres in 2022. And despite a “down” year by his standards in ’22, the young superstar bounced back this past season, putting him in position to exceed Washington’s offer in free agency.
Now with the Yankees, Soto will have a chance to put together a career year on the biggest of stages in the Bronx as he prepares to hit the open market. If he does, could we be looking at half a billion dollars for his next contract?
After all, we’re talking about a guy who ranks fifth in AL/NL history in career OPS+ (157) for players 24 years old or younger (min. 3,000 plate appearances). How often have we seen a 26-year-old free agent in the company of luminaries like Ty Cobb, Mike Trout, Mickey Mantle and Jimmie Foxx? That could become a reality following next season.
Pete Alonso, 1B
With Alonso, you can basically pencil in 40-plus homers and 100-plus RBIs at the start of every season. He’s hit at least 37 home runs in each full season of his career (excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign), and over the past two years, he’s racked up 86 of them.
Alonso just turned 29, and he’ll be looking to rebound from a 2023 campaign in which his slugging was on par with his career norms, but his batting average dropped 54 points. He’d like to put together a season that looks more like his ’22, when he posted an .869 OPS and led the Majors with 131 RBIs.
If we see another typical Alonso performance in 2024, he’ll be primed to exceed the contract values a pair of fellow star first basemen inked in 2022 -- Freddie Freeman’s six-year, $162 million pact with the Dodgers, and Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168 million deal with the Braves.
The question is, will it be in the form of an extension with the Mets, or will the Polar Bear be wearing another uniform next year?
Jose Altuve, 2B
Altuve’s is an interesting case. He’ll be entering his age-35 season in 2025, but he has still been as productive as ever over the past couple of years following a swoon that begged the question of whether his best was behind him.
The former AL MVP, three-time batting champion and eight-time All-Star was hurt for much of the 2023 campaign, but he still managed to post a .915 OPS with 17 homers and 14 steals. Over the past two seasons, he hit .304/.390/.529 and has been worth nearly 8 WAR (Baseball Reference).
While the Astros would certainly love to retain this franchise icon and postseason hero with another contract extension, Altuve could command a pretty substantial sum for his next deal even as he enters his late-30s. Another stellar season in 2024 would all but make that a certainty.
Alex Bregman, 3B
Another core member of Houston’s dynastic run over the past several years, Bregman is also scheduled to become a free agent after next season.
The star third baseman will be 31 at that point, and while he’s had solid seasons at the plate since a disappointing and injury-shortened 2021 campaign, what he’d really like to do is recapture some of what he had in ’19, when he finished runner-up in AL MVP Award voting. That year, his OPS was 1.015 and he smashed a career-best 41 homers.
Bregman had become one of the game’s elite players by this point, but his production since then, while good, has never approached that level -- since 2020, his slash line is .261/.361/.442. He is one of the players on this list who stands to gain the most from a big year in ’24, one that could boost his earning potential next offseason.
Gleyber Torres, SS/2B
Like Bregman, Torres has been a solid offensive performer throughout his career, but he hasn’t quite returned to the level of his breakout campaign. That came in 2019, when he slugged 38 home runs with an .871 OPS for the Yankees in his second big league season.
From 2020-23, Torres hit .262/.332/.422 with 61 home runs. He’s been up and down defensively, with a strong season at second base leading to 4.1 bWAR in ’22, but -4 defensive runs saved and -3 outs above average this past season.
Torres stands to benefit greatly if he can put together a strong all-around performance in 2024, especially given that he’ll still only be entering his age-29 season in ’25.
Shane Bieber, RHP
Bieber rose to national prominence when he won the 2019 All-Star Game MVP Award in his home ballpark before posting a 3.28 ERA over 214 1/3 innings for Cleveland that season to finish fourth in AL Cy Young Award voting.
He followed that with a historic campaign in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, finishing with a 1.63 ERA and an incredible 41 percent strikeout rate to win the league’s Cy Young Award. Since then, he hasn’t been as spectacular, and in an injury-limited ’23, his ERA was 3.80 over 21 starts for the Guardians.
Of particular concern with Bieber is his declining fastball velocity and strikeout rate. His fastball has lost around 3 mph from its average and his strikeout rate over the past two seasons was 23 percent.
Still, given his track record as a workhorse -- he reached the 200-inning mark again in 2022 -- and his early success, Bieber’s market should be robust if he hits the open market following next season, especially if he rebounds in ’24. Given recent reported trade interest in the right-hander, that may happen with a new team.
Walker Buehler, RHP
The baseball world will be paying close attention to Buehler in 2024. The right-hander missed the entire ’23 season following Tommy John surgery, but before that, he had become the Dodgers’ ace. From 2018-21, he posted a 2.82 ERA and 0.99 WHIP for Los Angeles. Then he was hurt in ’22, having his season cut short after 12 starts.
If Buehler is the Buehler we saw in 2021, when he finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting thanks to a 2.47 ERA over 207 2/3 innings, the right-hander could be looking at a hefty payday as he enters his age-30 season in ’25.
Only time will tell if Buehler is the same guy we saw a couple of years ago, but he has an opportunity to showcase what he’s got in his walk year with the Dodgers. Given his age and -- assuming a strong 2024 campaign -- track record, he could command one of the highest contract values in next year’s free-agent pitcher class.
Corbin Burnes, RHP
Burnes has quietly been one of the very best starting pitchers in the game over the past three years, and he’s now the subject of some pretty intense trade speculation.
From 2021-23, the right-hander had a 2.94 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP over 562 2/3 innings for the Brewers, winning the NL Cy Young Award in ’21. He struck out 200 or more batters in each of those seasons, helping Milwaukee’s rotation become one of baseball’s most formidable.
Like Buehler, the right-hander will be entering his age-30 season in 2025, and there’s no reason not to think he’ll continue to perform at a high level if healthy next season, which could set him up for a nine-figure contract.
Max Fried, LHP
Fried had to exit his Opening Day start due to a strained left hamstring, and when he returned on May 5, he was hit hard by the Orioles to the tune of seven runs (five earned) over six innings. He then went right back to the injured list with a left forearm strain, missing another three months.
Upon his return in August, though, the left-hander tossed six scoreless innings with no walks and eight strikeouts to beat the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Overall, he was stellar, posting a 2.55 ERA in 14 starts a season after finishing runner-up in NL Cy Young Award voting.
If Fried is healthy throughout next season, and he has a typical Fried season, he’ll be well on his way towards a massive contract going into his age-31 campaign.
Tyler Glasnow, RHP
Glasnow, like Bieber and Burnes, has been the subject of trade talk this offseason. The right-hander has been great when healthy, but the trouble for him has been staying healthy. Entering the 2023 campaign, he had never made more than 11 starts in a season.
Midway through the 2021 season, Glasnow had to undergo Tommy John surgery. He missed most of ’22, though he did make two starts at the very end of the season for the Rays. Then in ’23, he missed the first two months of the season with an oblique injury.
Still, Glasnow made a career-high 21 starts this past season, a good sign heading into the final year of his contract. If he can manage to stay healthy for a full season next year, he could parlay that into a big free-agent deal. After all, he owns a 3.10 ERA over 37 starts since 2021.
Zack Wheeler, RHP
Given his age, Wheeler’s entry into free agency for the second time will be fascinating if he doesn’t sign an extension. The right-hander has consistently been one of the game’s best starters over the past few years -- since 2020, he owns a 3.06 ERA (2.90 FIP) over 629 1/3 innings.
Wheeler has proven to be a workhorse, a perennial threat to eclipse the 200-inning threshold and place himself squarely in the mix for a Cy Young Award. But when he’s scheduled to hit the open market, he’ll be heading into his age-35 campaign.
While he won’t be on the preferred side of the age curve, we’ve seen some starters in their late-30s have success -- Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer headline that list. If Wheeler turns in another stellar year in 2024, he should be in line to secure a strong deal in free agency in terms of annual average value.