Here are 3 big storylines for Bucs ahead of camp
This story was excerpted from Justice delos Santos’ Pirates Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
A year ago, when I loaded up my 2007 Toyota Yaris and ventured from the Bay Area to Pittsburgh, I, admittedly, didn’t know much about the minutia of the Pirates.
I didn’t know nothing. I read the local outlets. I scoured Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant. I scanned an endless list of faces and names. For all my research, I lacked institutional knowledge; there was so only so much I could realistically know.
A funny thing happens when you’re around a team just about every day for eight-ish months: the micro metamorphoses into the macro. A year ago, I would’ve struggled to conjure up the main storylines heading into Spring Training. Now? I could jot down a couple dozen things I’ll be looking at when I venture down to Spring Training. Instead of that comprehensive list, though, here are three storylines heading into camp:
1. The ballad of Bryan
When Bryan Reynolds’ trade request went public right before the Winter Meetings, there appeared to be a widespread belief that Reynolds would have a different employer by the end of the month.
Hypothetical -- and, far too often, unrealistic -- trade packages spawned and spread with whiplash-inducing speeds. Arguments bred counterarguments. If you perused the comment section of any national reporter, you were bound to find users who threw unpleasant, if not unnecessary, barbs at one another. The conversations splintered off to discuss Reynolds’ value as a trade chip. The quantity and sub-quality of five-cent analysis and takes was enough to induce migraines.
We’re nearing Spring Training and Reynolds remains a Pittsburgh Pirate. Circumstances could change. He could be traded today. Tomorrow. Next week. As of now, Reynolds will likely still be a Pittsburgh Pirate on March 30 for Opening Day in Cincinnati.
The All-Star might still be a Pirate, but questions remain. If anything, we have new questions to consider.
What will Reynolds say publicly during Spring Training? Does he share what led to the request? Is the request still valid? Will he announce a change of heart, or will he opt for ambiguity? Does he provide any insight on extension negotiations? And, of course, will Reynolds still be a Pirate on Opening Day?
2. Competition, competition, competition
The Pirates have emphasized that there will be competition during Spring Training, but a good chunk of their roster appears to be in place.
The starting rotation will consist of Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, Rich Hill, JT Brubaker and Vince Velasquez. The starting position players are pretty solidified as well: Ke’Bryan Hayes at third; Oneil Cruz at shortstop; Rodolfo Castro at second; Ji-Man Choi and Carlos Santana at first; Austin Hedges behind the plate; Reynolds in center; Andrew McCutchen and Jack Suwinski at the corners.
The bench and bullpen, by contrast, are far less defined.
The Pirates have only four bench spots, but the list of candidates includes Ji Hwan Bae, Connor Joe, Cal Mitchell, Miguel Andújar, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Travis Swaggerty, Ryan Vilade, Tucupita Marcano, Tyler Heineman and Jason Delay.
The bullpen is an even trickier proposition. Pittsburgh has room for eight relievers, but the candidate pool includes David Bednar, Jarlín García, Colin Holderman, Chase De Jong, Wil Crowe, Robert Stephenson, Yerry De Los Santos, Dauri Moreta, Johan Oviedo, Yohan Ramirez, Colin Selby and Duane Underwood Jr. That doesn’t include the additional non-roster invitees who could make some noise.
Some of those names are locks (i.e. Bednar), but with so much competition, expect the battle in the bullpen to come down to Spring Training’s final days.
3. The leap
Every year, without fail, we witness a small handful of players who make “the leap.” Sometimes they’re modest improvements. Sometimes they’re Bob Beamon-type jumps.
Linear progress isn't guaranteed; some players need several years to evolve from rough draft to full-fledged novel. That said, the Pirates have no shortage of young players who dazzled in spurts but have another gear -- or several gears -- they’ve yet to hit.
Cruz is one of the most athletically gifted baseball players on the planet, but he has a lot of room to grow. Can he improve as a defender and continue making better swing decisions to improve a subpar strikeout rate?
Hayes accrued a 4.3 bWAR in 2022 despite posting an 87 OPS+. Can Hayes find a way to tap into his 85th percentile average exit velocity and 89th percentile max exit velocity and evolve into a two-way force?
Contreras looked the part of a rotation mainstay, but he ended last season in the bottom tier for average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage and barrel percentage, among other metrics. He also hasn’t pitched more than 100 innings in a season since 2019. Can Contreras evolve on the mound and take a step forward while taking on an increased workload?
Cruz, Hayes and Contreras are far from the only players worth monitoring; the 40-man roster is filled with 20-somethings poised to improve. Throughout Spring Training, we'll discover who's been working on what and see whether there are players who might take a step forward.