Rodríguez, Peña headline latest Rookie Power Rankings

June 2nd, 2022

Welcome to the second edition of the 2022 Rookie Power Rankings. Once per month, the MLB Pipeline staff votes on who we believe to be the likeliest Rookie of the Year winners at the end of the season.

Be sure not to miss that last part. We’re not voting on who would win if the awards were handed out now. Instead, we weigh both performance to date and rest-of-year expectations, adding up to a judgment call from our prospect experts.

Here’s how we voted (all odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change):

1. Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners (previous rank: 2)
DraftKings Rookie of the Year odds: 2-1

Rodríguez hasn’t fully caught fire, but he’s still been an above-average hitter (117 OPS+) and a force on the basepaths while playing a credible center field. He cut his strikeout rate in May, posted a .309/.339/.527 line for the month and amassed 11 extra-base hits in 28 games. We’ve never not believed in him, and now the production is catching up with the ability.

2. Jeremy Peña, SS, Astros (previous rank: 3)
DraftKings Rookie of the Year odds: 1.75-1

Peña ripped four homers in May, giving him eight on the year, but he also started to find some base hits. He’s playing a strong shortstop while holding down the position that was long occupied by one of the game’s best players in Carlos Correa. If the vote were taken now, Peña probably takes it by a hair over his AL West rival, but as his ranking indicates, it’s not like we expect him to fall way off.

3. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals (previous rank: 5)
DraftKings Rookie of the Year odds: 6.5-1

Our No. 1 prospect coming into the year, Witt joined some other top prospects by getting off to a slow start. But like many of his compatriots, he’s finding his groove. He smacked 11 extra-base hits in his last 14 games of May and slashed .243/.295/.534 for the month. Maybe most notable is where he’s appearing in the lineup -- he’s moved over to his natural position of shortstop and he’s regularly batting third. He has arrived.

4. Seiya Suzuki, OF, Cubs (previous rank: 1)
DraftKings Rookie of the Year odds: 2.7-1

Suzuki found the going a lot tougher in May than in April, following a .934 OPS in the first month with a .616 mark in the second. He is now on the injured list with a left ring finger sprain. Still, while he fell three spots in our overall rankings, he’s still the highest rated National League player -- which is to say we still think he’s the most likely Rookie of the Year winner in the senior circuit.

5. MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Padres (previous rank: 7)
DraftKings Rookie of the Year odds: 2.7-1

A month ago, we wanted to believe in Gore but we still had some understandable doubts due to sample size. Those doubts are starting to fade. Gore posted a 1.69 ERA in five May appearances (four starts), striking out 27 against eight walks. He was one of the best pitchers in the league -- rookie or otherwise -- and every week he comes to resemble the former No. 5 overall prospect that he was just a few years ago. Gore’s ceiling is as high as any young pitcher in baseball and he’s climbing toward it.

6. Joe Ryan, RHP, Twins (previous rank: 4)
DraftKings Rookie of the Year odds: 7.5-1

Let’s be clear: Ryan’s slight drop in the rankings has little to do with his performance. He was a little less brilliant in May than in April, but still quite good -- especially for a rookie. He just got passed by a couple of high-octane prospects who got hot. Ryan remains an effective, reliable starting pitcher with a very good chance to appear on this list all year long.

7. Juan Yepez, OF, Cardinals (previously unranked)
DraftKings Rookie of the Year odds: 12-1

Yepez spent seven years in the Minor Leagues before finally getting a chance and he’s seized it. He hit his way onto the Cardinals’ radar in 2021 and has followed it up with a strong showing so far in ’22. Yepez posted a .278/.340/.456 slash line across 25 games in May with solid strike zone judgment and some power to boot. He’s not a defensive whiz, but as the saying goes: If you can hit, they’ll find a place for you.

8. Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Tigers (previous rank: 6)
DraftKings Rookie of the Year odds: 28-1

We still believe in Torkelson, but much of May was not kind to the budding slugger. He showed some power in mid-April before hitting a deep funk that he’s finally starting to dig out of. Looking for reasons for optimism? Torkelson finished May on a .319/.389/.489 kick over his last 15 games, walking almost as many times (six) as he struck out (seven). He’s the same polished hitting prospect he was before the season started and he’s more likely to climb back up this list than to fall farther.

9. Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles (previous rank: 10)
DraftKings Rookie of the Year odds: 13-1

Yep, we ranked Rutschman even before his debut, so naturally he’s still on the list now that he’s in The Show. Rutschman -- like so many before him -- is finding that hitting in the Majors is very, very hard, but we are unconcerned. He has both the hit and the power tool, plus elite defensive chops to keep him valuable even when he’s not hitting. Don’t worry about that .179/.273/.256 slash line through 10 games, it will be trending upward soon enough.

10. MJ Melendez, C, Royals (previously unranked)
DraftKings Rookie of the Year odds: 50-1

Melendez, the Royals’ No. 1 prospect now that Witt has graduated, was not expected to spend much of this year in the big leagues. You may have heard of the guy ahead of him on the depth chart, a fellow named Salvador Pérez. But after Melendez was called up due to an injury to Cam Gallagher, the 23-year-old showed he belonged. Kansas City is now looking for ways to get Melendez into the lineup even when Pérez is playing, so he could stick around on this list for months to come.