The first signs of a Minor League season are starting to pop up like crocuses peeking out from beneath a long winter frost. Some of the game’s top prospects are starting to ramp up at facilities in Florida and Arizona, with many teams holding mini-camps as they start gearing up for Spring Training.
It’s with that “hope springs eternal” mindset that we hit this week’s MLB Pipeline Inbox, taking a look at where new international signees might land in 2022 prospect rankings, how quickly some top pitching prospects from a couple of organizations might advance and where there might be room in a big league lineup for one of the game’s best emerging sluggers.
Do any of the international signings from January break in to their individual teams’ top 10 prospect lists? -- @burleighwood
Farm systems across baseball added a whole lot of exciting, albeit far away, talent, when the international signing period began last month. Players up and down our Top 50 International Prospects list have signed and are set to embark on their professional careers this spring and summer.
Exactly where they land on their respective team Top 30s remains to be seen, but there are a couple of high-end prospects who at least have the chance to land in the top 10 on their organizational lists, looking at a combination of the top prospects on that list and the strength of the farm systems they are joining. Keep in mind because these players are so young and have yet to play an inning of professional baseball of any sort, we tend to err on the side of caution. But here are a few candidates:
Roderick Arias, SS, Yankees: He was No. 1 on that Top 50 and the Yankees signed him for $4 million, a very large chunk of their international bonus pool. The Yankees system was thinned out a bit last Trade Deadline to bring in big league talent, though there are still some elite-level players at the top. Arias might just miss the top 10, but could easily play his way in.
Cristhian Vaquero, SS, Nationals: The Nats set a franchise record by signing the No. 2 international prospect for north of $4.9 million. This system is on the rise as they brought in prospects at the Deadline last year, but it’s still not super-deep, so someone as talented as Vaquero is bound to crack the top 10.
Oscar Colas, OF, White Sox: No. 5 on the international list, Colas is older than most in the rankings at age 23, so he has the chance to start his career a little higher up the ladder of affiliated ball. That, plus the overall weakness of Chicago’s system makes Colas a virtual slam dunk to land in his team’s top 10.
Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson, Bryce Jarvis or Brandon Pfaadt debut first for Arizona? 2022…Crossed fingers? Or extra development and wait until 2023? -- @spencer_ogara
This is a pretty good problem to have, isn’t it? This is a solid list of interesting and fairly advanced arms on their way to Arizona. And some of them have moved faster than anticipated, for sure. I do think you’ll see some get to the big leagues this year, but not all. But considering two are from the 2019 Draft (Nelson and Jameson) and two are from 2020 (Jarvis and Pfaadt), getting all of them up by 2023 would be a big positive, no? And I’d say there’s a non-zero chance that all four do touch the big leagues in 2022.
The best guesses for arrival this year might be Nelson and Pfaadt. Nelson, the club’s second-rounder in 2019 out of Oregon, is still learning to pitch after spending two years as an infielder/reliever in college and pitching mostly out of the bullpen as a junior. His command has improved to the point where there’s confidence now that he’s a starter long-term, and a good one, with a plus fastball and curve, but the chance to have four pitches.
Pfaadt has a really advanced feel for pitching and is super-competitive on the mound, reasons why he was able to pitch across three levels and reach Double-A in his first pro season. He pounds the zone, maintains his velocity (92-97 mph on the fastball), has an outstanding changeup, and also has a usable curve and slider. He’s a mid-rotation starter type and while Nelson has every chance to start, I could see him getting up first and helping out of the bullpen if there’s a need, even if the long-term plan is to have him in the rotation.
Do you think Mick Abel will/can make it to double A this season? -- @UlyssesSect82
This was the question we answered on this week’s Pipeline Podcast, so be sure to give it a listen. In the end, we all ended up somewhere in the “Can? Possibly. Will? Don’t know about that” camp. I was probably the one of the three of us (myself, Jim Callis and Sam Dykstra) who felt the strongest that it could very well happen.
Abel, the Phillies’ first-round pick in 2020 (taken No. 15 overall), is coming off of an uneven first full season of pro ball. A shoulder issue sidelined him some and the Phillies were understandably cautious with the 6-foot-5 right-hander, so he only amassed 44 2/3 innings in Low-A during his debut. When he was on the mound, he did miss a decent amount of bats (13.3 K/9) and was very tough to hit (.174 BAA), though he somewhat surprisingly struggled with command (5.4 BB/9).
It’s the lack of innings, along with the mixed results, that does make one pause before making any kind of guarantee of a bump to Double-A in 2022. Given the low workload last year, it’s hard to imagine Abel, who’ll be just 20 for nearly all of the season, making a huge jump up in terms of innings for the season. If, say, he tops out at around 100, will that give him enough time to pitch his way from Jersey Shore to Reading (at least it’s a short trip)? Maybe not, and maybe the Phillies will remain cautious and let him get a year of success at one level under his belt. But, the stuff still plays and it’s certainly feasible that he takes the lessons he learned from 2021 with him, dominates High-A and pitches his way up to Reading before the year is over.
With the Cardinals crowded corners, where does Jordan Walker likely end up on the field? -- @NeilBMills
Universal DH, anyone? In all seriousness, that could be one option for Walker, though he’s far too young to worry about it just yet. The good news is, the Cardinals won’t have to make a decision of this nature in the short-term.
Cardinals Nation is understandably excited about Walker, the club’s first-round pick from 2020. All he did is hit his way from Low- to High-A as a teenager in his first season of pro ball, finishing with a combined .317/.388/.548 line over 82 games. There’s a lot of confidence the bat is going to play.
Where he’ll play defensively remains in question. He actually played a decent third in 2021, but there’s work still to be done there. He’s also 6-foot-5 and the concern will continue to be what happens when and if he slows down as he fills out that frame. Perhaps first base is an option, with some thinking an outfield corner might be best. Even if he were outstanding at third, he obviously isn’t going to play there because Nolan Arenado is signed through 2027 (though he does have an opt-out after the 2022 season). At first, Paul Goldschmidt is signed through 2024, but with Walker’s trajectory, he could be ready before then. The outfield does seem set with younger players, so there would have to be a personnel shift for there to be room for Walker in a corner.
That brings me back to my original thought. There very likely could be a universal designated hitter by 2024 and that might be a way to get Walker’s bat into the lineup, at least until Goldschmidt’s contract runs out.