Which prospects will make a big jump in 2022?

March 30th, 2022

With all 900 reports for all 30 teams’ Top 30 lists now live on our site, we’re ready to get the 2022 season started!

We’re still unveiling our Top 30 farm system rankings and have a few days remaining in our 30-camps Spring Training coverage, but we’ll admit to peeking ahead to when games will start. With news like Hunter Greene making the Reds rotation to fire us up even more, finding good questions about good prospects for this week’s Pipeline Inbox was an easy task.

Who are a few prospects outside of your top 50 this year that you think could make a leap up into the top 25 in next year’s rankings with a big season? -- @shadsman15

We get this kind of question, a “which prospect/s will make a big jump” type, in all varieties, and they’re always fun to answer. In this case, we’re looking at prospects in the Top 100 (or beyond, but I’m going to stick to the list) who could make a big leap up into the top quarter of the list a year from now.

The first name that comes to mind is Guardians’ pitching prospect Daniel Espino and it’s not just because he’s just barely on the outside of the top 50 at No. 53. It’s not really going out on a limb picking a guy who struck out 14.9 per nine in 2021. But he was creating a ton of buzz in Spring Training this year, dominating hitters of all shapes, sizes and experience levels. He’s going to keep refining his command as he reaches the upper levels of Cleveland’s system, and he’s only 21. I don’t want to say any jump like this is a slam dunk, but this one’s pretty close.

Another pitcher a bit further down the list is the Rays’ Taj Bradley, at No. 74. Now maybe I have a little familiarity bias after talking to him at length earlier this spring. But he’s young (only 21), has a ridiculous fastball-slider combination with above-average control and might only be scratching the surface after a big 2021 across two levels of A-ball.

I’ll throw out two hitters as well, starting with Giants outfielder Luis Matos. Our No. 63 prospect has ridiculous contact skills and had no problems with the transition to full-season ball as a teenager last year, earning Low-A West MVP honors in the process. This is a hitter who could hit over. 300 with 20 or more homers annually in the big leagues.

Then there’s the Reds’ Elly De La Cruz, at No. 76. He jumped on the map last year when he came to the United States and dominated the Arizona Complex League so much they had to jump him to full-season ball. He can play the infield, he’s athletic enough to play center, he’s still growing into his body and has the chance to be a true five-tool player.

Could you tell us more about Connor Phillips? Has he shown improvement this spring in his command? How good of an addition was he for Cincinnati in that trade? Thanks! -- @aaronwelch

It was announced on Tuesday that Phillips was the player to be named later in the trade that sent Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez to the Mariners. While that trade was an obvious hit to the Reds’ big league lineup, they did get two very intriguing pitching prospects in Brandon Williamson and Phillips.

The Reds liked what Phillips, the Mariners’ second-round pick in 2020 out of the junior college ranks, did during his first full season, namely missing bats at a 13.1 K/9 rate. He was also tough to hit overall (.224 BAA) and gave up just two homers in 76 innings. It’s hard not to like his size and athleticism on the mound, not to mention the raw stuff. And he doesn’t turn 21 until May.

Yes, there are command concerns, as he walked 5.4 per nine last year. And after last year, a lot of evaluators would have predicted a move to the bullpen eventually. But there have been signs this spring of substantial steps forward. Scouts have seen better control, improved feel for his changeup and saw both his curve and slider as at least above-average. He was 95-98 throughout a recent four-inning outing. Sure, small sample size, but an uptick in stuff, plus feel for a changeup he didn’t use very often in 2021 and an ability to throw it all for strikes? There’s more belief he can develop into a starter now than there was last year, a big reason why the Reds chose him as the PTBNL.

Worst-case, he does slide to the pen, where he should be a back-end, high-leverage reliever. He’s at No. 14 on the Reds Top 30 now, but if the gains he showed this spring are legit, he’s going to take a big step forward as the season progresses.

With the acquisition of Shea Langeliers, do you expect the A’s to continue developing Tyler Soderstrom as a catcher or move him to 1st base? -- @theelephantin13

The Matt Olson trade sent several prospects from the Braves to the A’s, with Langeliers the best of them as our No. 59 prospect. It also gives the A’s the best catching prospect tandem in baseball, with Soderstrom, the team’s first-round pick in 2020, coming in just ahead of his new organization-mate at No. 56. They are Nos. 9 and 10 on the Top 10 catchers list.

One thing the A’s have in their favor is time. Langeliers will be in Triple-A, waiting for his first opportunity in the big leagues. Soderstrom will probably move up to High-A. There’s no question his bat could help him move quickly through the system after he had a .957 OPS in Low-A in his pro debut. But it was only in 57 games as injuries cut short his development time. Right now, there’s no talk of moving him out from behind the plate, and there’s no reason to make that decision yet anyway. I think this year will show a lot in terms of whether the strides he’s made defensively are enough to stay there long-term. He’ll continue to see time at first, so that will be an option if and when the need arises. I think eventually it does, not necessarily because of the acquisition of Langeliers.

What do you see as a realistic expectation for both Spencer Strider and Michael Harris? I like to think they’ll both become All-Star or better caliber players. -- @JJinHisBag1

Think whatever you’d like, there’s no charge for that, though I’m curious what qualifies as better than being All-Star caliber.

Anyway ... Harris and Strider are now the top two prospects on the Braves’ Top 30 after the Matt Olson trade, with Harris the lone member of the Top 100. He’s a super-talented switch-hitter who has become a better all-around offensive player in a hurry to go along with plus defense in center. He had passed up Drew Waters and the since-traded Cristian Pache on the depth chart and has the best chance to reach the ceiling you laid out there.

I suppose it would be a mistake to limit what Strider could become since, in many ways, he’s already been better than expected. The Braves’ fourth-rounder in 2020, the right-hander was coming off 2019 Tommy John surgery and he’s just thrown harder and harder the longer he’s put that in his rearview mirror. He went from Low-A to the big leagues in one season in 2021, with a fastball that can touch triple digits and a power slider that keeps improving. His offspeed stuff has looked good this spring, a good sign. If that continues and he can refine his command, then he has the chance to start in the big leagues. If not, could he be an All-Star caliber closer? I’d say yes.