Inbox: Who will Orioles nab with No. 1 pick?

April 28th, 2022

In case you haven’t noticed, we’re getting a little excited about the 2022 Draft over here.

Yes, we know it’s still more than two months away, but we’ve really started to focus in on the best this amateur class has to offer. To fuel the fire, we’ve launched our new Draft Top 150 earlier this week and the first mock Draft of the season was just released.

So it stands to reason that this week’s Pipeline Inbox would be completely focused on the Draft. Enjoy!

What do you do if you’re the Orioles at No. 1? College under-slot or high-end high school? Who do you take?
-- @ElDuceBrown

We tackled this one on this week’s MLB Pipeline Podcast and actually took it in two directions: What would we do? And what do we think the Orioles will do?

I’ll take the second one first, even though it wasn’t actually asked. As I stated in the mock Draft, the Orioles are definitely scouting the top high school bats at the top of all boards -- Druw Jones, Elijah Green, Termarr Johnson and Jackson Holliday -- heavily, and I do think there’s a good chance they go in that direction, especially if they determine that one of them will sign for a significant amount under slot. That said, it’s impossible to ignore the O’s history of late, and they’ve taken two college hitters and made bonus pool-saving deals with them the last two years. So it’s certainly feasible they could do that with someone like Brooks Lee (who I had them take in the mock) or perhaps Jacob Berry, a name that has been brought up a bit.

Now for the actual question. I’m a firm believer in taking the best player available, especially when you pick 1-1. If all else is equal, or there isn’t a clear-cut choice or choices that stand above the rest, then making a deal of some sort can make sense. Baltimore general manager Mike Elias was with the Astros when they took Carlos Correa and saved a bunch of money, but Houston actually had him on top of their board. And even last year, with the Pirates saving money with Henry Davis, there wasn’t an obvious pick, and they were really high on Davis. This year, the high school bats are better, in our opinion. If the Draft were today, I’d take Jones and help him reach his All-Star potential.

With a deep Draft class this year, where do you think Chase DeLauter gets drafted?
-- @StevieDAles97

There’s been so much talk about the injured pitchers, especially on the college front, that we should take time to discuss an injured hitter. DeLauter is No. 12 on our Top 150 and was having a ridiculous season numbers-wise (.437/.576/.828) at James Madison University when he broke his foot, leaving some national scouts and directors shrugging their shoulders because they had plans to circle back to see him again.

DeLauter did have a good Cape Cod League showing, with a .986 OPS and nine homers with a wood bat, but there were some questions about the outfielder's setup at the plate and his ability to hit professional pitching. Some scouts I talked to pointed to a season-opening series against Florida State, when DeLauter, a left-handed hitter, looked completely overmatched against Draft prospects Parker Messick and Bryce Hubbart. And with no more looks, in all likelihood, scouting directors contemplating him in the first round will have to rely on last summer or early looks and decide how much one weekend means. Once thought to be a top-10-type pick, I think he’s probably more in that 11-20 range, and I had him going No. 18 to the Reds in my mock.

With Dylan Lesko getting Tommy John surgery, how will that affect his Draft stock?
-- @kabengelestan

And now on to the biggest injured high school arm. It was recently announced that Lesko, the Georgia high school right-hander who is our highest-ranked pitcher at No. 9 (ranked before the surgery was announced), had Tommy John surgery. In some ways, it might be better that it’s a known thing instead of it being shrouded in mystery like it was before the announcement. There are many teams who aren’t afraid of taking a pitcher who had elbow reconstruction and rehabbing them under their watch, but there isn’t as much history of doing that with high schoolers (Lucas Giolito being one example).

Lesko has incredible stuff and feel for pitching and gets very high marks for his makeup and work ethic, so there might be more confidence in his ability to come back as good as new post-surgery. I don’t see a top 10 selection now, which seemed likely, but I do think he could go in the middle of the first round somewhere. (I had the Padres taking him at No. 15 in the mock.) Could he go in the supplemental first round? Of course, because the high school pitching market is always volatile, even when we’re talking healthy arms. But if I’m a team that doesn’t fear TJ surgery, I wouldn’t shy away from taking the most talented arm in the class.

Did Max Rajcic get some consideration for the top 150?
-- @darylhauck

I wanted to give one non-Top 150 guy some love, and I’ll admit I’ve always liked Rajcic ever since I saw how ultra-competitive he was on the mound while pitching for Orange Lutheran in the National High School Invitational before he headed on to UCLA. He was an effective closer last year, showed some good things on the Cape and he has continued to pitch well in the Bruins’ rotation this spring.

There was a scout or two who thought maybe Rajcic belonged in the back end of the Top 150, but he’s not that big (6-foot-1), is kind of maxed out physically, and with some effort in his delivery, there’s a little reliever risk while working with a fastball that averages only around 90 mph. That said, he still competes as well as anyone with what he has and I’ll probably get him in the 151-200 range. If you told me he’s going to pitch for a while in the big leagues, I’d believe you.

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Jonathan Mayo is a reporter for MLBPipeline.com. Follow him on Facebook and @JonathanMayo, and listen to him on the weekly MLB Pipeline Podcast.