Inbox: Draftees up, draftees down
Much of the MLB Pipeline crew was at the Draft Combine for a few days in Phoenix and we got to see, and talk to, a lot of college and high school players whose names we will hear called in under a month at this year’s Draft.
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So if I didn’t have Draft fever before… it’s raging now. So this week’s MLB Pipeline Inbox is 100 percent Draft-related. And be sure to check out all of the great content churned out by the Pipeline crew at the Draft Combine this year.
Is Walker Janek still the third best catcher or has he moved himself up to No. 2? Who does he profile like as a hitter? Looking at Twins grabbing him with pick No. 33 -- @MNTwinsZealot
Based on our current Top 200 Draft prospects rankings, Janek is actually listed as our top catcher. He’s at No. 23, just ahead of Stanford’s Malcolm Moore, with Cal’s Caleb Lomavita coming in at No. 33 overall. The three college backstops could actually go in any order, most likely in the back half of the first round, and I will resist the urge to nudge Janek up solely because he came over and said hello to us at dinner while we were in Phoenix.
In our most recent mock draft, when Jim Callis and I took turns making picks, we ended up with Moore going No. 29 to the D-backs and Janek going No. 30 to the Rangers. We’ve heard Janek’s name mentioned as high as No. 8 -- with other teams’ scouts thinking he could be in play should the Angels decide to cut a below-slot deal with a college hitter there (more on this subject in a bit) -- but it seems like the college catching market really starts to heat up in the middle of the first round, when there are a lot of college bats being mentioned. Seeing any, or all, three of them go in the 16-30 range, is extremely feasible. If I had to guess right now, I think the Twins would have to take Janek at No. 21 to get him, but it’s certainly not far-fetched for him to still be on the board at No. 33.
Janek has the chance to hit for average and power, showing off much better plate discipline and a willingness to take walks during his junior season at Sam Houston. He also runs well for a catcher and isn’t afraid to steal a base, and has the chance to be a very solid all-around big league catcher, with more than enough arm to help control a running game.
Why did PJ Morlando drop for so many talent evaluators? How did he slip from the projected 1st round pick he was in February? -- @TKoppe22
The winner of the High School Home Derby and the MVP Award at the High School All-American Game at the All-Star Game last July, Morlando did indeed rank as one of the top high school hitters in the entire class when we did our Draft Top 100 back in December. He became a little tougher to project through the course of a rough senior season, with questions about his overall athleticism (and long-term defensive position) and getting to his raw power in games.
To make it even tougher, Morlando rarely saw a strike, getting walked routinely as teams avoided his left-handed bat in South Carolina. That’s obviously not on him, but it does make it tougher to see any gains at the plate, adjustments Morlando told me at the Combine he’s been making to answer those questions about in-game pop. So the combination of that, the fact most see him as a left fielder or first baseman with average speed (he also told me he’s worked on that part of his game, too), and that he’s 19 on Draft Day, all have contributed to him falling down the boards a bit. But he was one of the top performers on the first day of the Combine with a very impressive batting practice display, and got the chance to meet face-to-face with a ton of teams. While he may not go in the first round, it wouldn’t surprise me if a team takes him in the comp or second round and pays him to forego his commitment to South Carolina.
How many 2024 draftees will be in the midseason top 100 prospects update? -- @Blahbla92342524
A year ago, we had 11 players from the 2023 Draft class hit the re-ranked list, the same number we had in 2022. So the easy answer would be … 11?
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I remember being surprised it was the same number given how strong last year’s Draft class was, but a lot of it has to do with the current makeup of the Top 100 at the time of the re-rank. This year, for example, we’ve had a lot of guys graduate (with 2023 draftee Wyatt Langford already graduated and Paul Skenes about to come off the list next week), so there could potentially be room to add a fair amount of new draftees.
The flip side of that coin is that this is not the greatest Draft class in the world. There does seem to be a solid 10-11 names who have solidified themselves atop Draft boards. On our Top 200, that’s from No. 1 Travis Bazzana down to No. 11 Trey Yesavage, so 11 isn’t a terrible guess. I think there are some other college hitters who could sneak on outside that group, guys like James Tibbs or Cam Smith and the high school arms are tough to predict, but William Schmidt or Cam Caminiti could be considered (though we often wait on prep arms until they really get going unless they are true top 10 talents). All that said, I’ll be bullish and take the over, with at least a dozen of these Draft prospects making our Top 100 in August.
If the Angels go underslot with the 8th pick, who could be a realistic over-slot in the second or third that might drop -- @Rfnosebleeds
I told you I’d talk more about the Angels’ pick at No. 8. And while there could be a top college hitter, like a Nick Kurtz, available at No. 8 who is too good to pass up, a lot of people around baseball see this scenario playing out where the Angels save some money with that pick, allowing them to be more aggressive later on if they want to. In 2022, the Angels did it with Zach Neto, saving about $900,000 that was used for a few over-slot deals, namely getting current top Angels pitching prospect Caden Dana for $1.5 million in Round 11. In 2021, Sam Bachman was the money-saver, with Mason Albright getting $1.25 million in Round 12.
I bring up these two examples for two reasons. The first is that you shouldn’t assume the over-slot deals will come in rounds two or three. Sometimes, teams can’t totally be sure they’ll have the right amount of money left over to sign a guy they want until Day 2 is over. The second reason is the demographic. More often than not, and not just with the Angels, high school pitching is what is targeted with bonus pool savings. If the Angels want to go after some prep arms early, could names like William Schmidt, Ryan Sloan or Kash Mayfield still be available? Sure, though it feels like all might be gone by the end of the sandwich round. Maybe a Braylon Doughty, who has some first-round buzz, Bryce Meccage or lefty David Shields, could be on the board. Keep in mind that evaluations of high school pitching is so subjective. Albright and Dana were both ranked in the 120 or so range in their years. Albright has since been traded, but Dana is on the cusp of being a Top 100 prospect.