Forgive us if we have an early case of MLB Draft fever. We just put out our new Draft Top 100 and it’s a class full of a ton of talent, as always. With the list fresh in everyone’s minds, I asked if people had Draft-related queries for this week’s MLB Pipeline Inbox and, lo and behold, people did! So I decided to split this week’s edition in half, with a pair of Draft questions and then two “regular prospect” ones.

Without knowing what team is going to picking number 1, who has the highest odds of going first in the Draft? -- @Blahbla92342524 on X

Not only do we not know – that will happen via the Draft Lottery at the Winter Meetings on Tuesday – this is a class where there isn’t a clear-cut top guy, so anything could still happen, even beyond the guys we have at the top of the list.

But given who we have at the top, I consulted with my Draft partner-in-ranking Jim Callis to come up with what we think those odds might look like right now. Obviously, the guys we have ranked the highest in the Top 100 are the ones we feel, as of right now, have the best chance to get taken early in the Draft. Here’s how I’d break it down:

1. Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwell HS (Okla.): 30%
2. Jace LaVioltette, OF, Texas A&M: 25%
3. Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State: 20%
4. Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara: 20%
5. The field: 5%

Seth Hernandez is the actual No. 5 player on our list and we think he’s very good, but a high school right-hander has never gone No. 1 overall in the history of the Draft, so it seems unlikely that it would happen now. That’s why I’m using “the field” to represent anyone else who could climb into top pick consideration with a big spring. Speaking of which…

Over the years, we’ve seen a lot of fluidity with these lists as we get closer to the Draft. With that said, who are some players who could propel themselves into the top 6 that are currently lower ranked? – @WatchPGHSports on X

Fluidity is a good way to put it. We’ll put out a Top 150 in the spring, followed by expansions to 200 and 250 leading up to the 2025 Draft, and each time we’ll move the order around based on what the industry is saying about the class. It changes frequently, and remember, this new Top 100 is based on the high school summer showcase circuit, college leagues, USA Baseball performances and fall ball. How everyone performs in the spring season will carry a ton of weight.

Starting pretty high up, I’ll point out a pair of high schoolers in the Pacific Northwest: third baseman Xavier Neyens and left-hander/first baseman Kruz Schoolcraft. I’m not exactly going out on a limb here since they are at No. 8 and 9. But some scouts were a little concerned about Neyens’ swing-and-miss at the end of the summer; if he comes back this spring and looks like one of the best hitters with power in the class, he could sneak up there. Schoolcraft is a fascinating two-way guy, and if he takes a step forward in one direction – my bet would be on the mound – a big young left-hander like him could be a top 5 pick.

Digging a little deeper, I’d keep an eye on No. 26 Kyson Witherspoon at Oklahoma, who if he finds the zone more consistently could move up in a relatively weak class college-pitching wise, and No. 27 Gavin Fien, who some scouts thought was the best pure high school hitter in the class and could leap up if his power shows up a bit more.

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Who are some Single-A/High-A catcher prospects to watch? -- @brittneybush on Bluesky

The first one who comes to mind does so because I just saw him in the Arizona Fall League, and that’s Tigers No. 6 prospect Thayron Liranzo. Detroit got him from the Dodgers in the Jack Flaherty deal. He’ll move up to Double-A in 2025, but spent last season in High-A, performing very well after the trade (.315/.470/.562 in 26 games), then won Fall Stars Game MVP honors thanks to his go-ahead home run. He still needs to work on his receiving, but scouts covering the AFL raved about his arm and he’s going to hit.

Other than Ethan Salas, who’ll also move up to Double-A next season, the other obvious one is Blake Mitchell, who is No. 51 on our Top 100, and had an up-and-down first full season of pro ball with the Royals. But his power (60 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale) and arm strength (70) are legit. I’d also keep an eye on the Reds’ Alfredo Duno, Astros 2024 first-round pick Walker Janek and the Angels’ Dario Laverde.

Why is the Seattle Mariners farm system rated so highly when they don't have any premier prospects above High-A nor have a prospect with a FV above 55? -- @othertimbo on Bluesky

In our most recent farm system rankings, which came out back in mid-August, we had the Mariners at No. 9 on our list, which was a healthy jump from No. 18 at the start of the season. There are a few things we look at when ranking systems. Yes, some of it is top-level prospects, but while no one has higher than a 55 overall grade, it’s important to note that they have six players on the Top 100, one of only five teams with that many. They’re especially good at finding exciting hitters these days, both through the Draft and internationally.

Beyond the elite guys, it’s a deep system and there are interesting players all the way down to 30. We have an internal saying of sorts, that if you’re writing up a guy at the end of a list and he sounds like a big leaguer, that’s a pretty good thing. I mention this because it’s high-end talent and depth that have them ranked so far. And, personally, proximity to big leagues doesn’t matter all that much to me, but also… Cole Young (MLB No. 38) and Harry Ford (MLB No. 49) were in Double-A in 2024. Sure, we’ll have to adjust if players get to the upper levels and don’t perform as expected, but right now I’m a believer in what Seattle has going on down on the farm.