Inbox: Will Andrew Painter's Fall League success mean he reaches MLB in '25?

4:40 PM UTC

If the end of the World Series has you looking for more baseball, don't despair! The Arizona Fall League has two-plus weeks remaining, with all the action streaming live on MLB.com and the Fall Stars Game and championship game broadcast on MLB Network.

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With how Andrew Painter has been in the AFL, do you expect him to be in the majors next year? -- @StevieDAles97

Painter missed the last two seasons with an elbow injury and subsequent Tommy John surgery, but the Phillies right-hander is showing why he was regarded as baseball's best pitching prospect before he got hurt. He has pounded the strike zone with four quality offerings, including an upper-90s fastball and an upper-80s slider. In 10 innings with the Glendale Desert Dogs, he has posted a 2.70 ERA with eight hits, one walk and 10 strikeouts.

There's no doubt that Painter will be in the big leagues in 2025. The two bigger questions are whether he makes the Opening Day roster and how many innings he can log next year.

Philadelphia remains in World Series-or-bust mode, so the priority should be having Painter available in October. His career high is 103 2/3 innings (in 2022), so he shouldn't be counted on for much more than that next year. The best plan might be to start him some brief outings in Triple-A to save some innings and bring him up in June or so.

We’ve yet to see a PPI pick awarded for a top-three Cy Young or MVP finish. How soon will that change and who will it be that bucks that trend? -- @Blahbla92342524

Players yield a Prospect Promotion Incentive selection at the end of the first round if they accrue a full year of service as a rookie and either win a Rookie of the Year award or finish in the top three in MVP or Cy Young Award voting before qualifying for arbitration. In the first two years with the rule in effect, Rookies of the Year Julio Rodríguez, Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson delivered bonus picks for their teams.

Bobby Witt Jr. looks destined to finish second in this year's American League MVP balloting behind only Aaron Judge, which would give the Royals a PPI choice. If Jackson Merrill loses the National League Rookie of the Year Award to Paul Skenes or Jackson Chourio, he'd be a candidate for a top-three MVP finish in the next two seasons. Neither of Merrill's closest competitors are eligible for a PPI pick, because Skenes didn't get a full year with the Pirates and Chourio signed a long-term contract prior to debuting with the Brewers.

The Tigers have a lot to be excited about. A most improbable postseason run, a highly ranked farm system, and now they have Josue Briceño and Thayron Liranzo going bonkers in the Arizona Fall League. (I'm trying to make Sway and Thay a thing.)

What's your take on those two? -- @DetroitTankCity

Sway and Thay, I like it. They both have devastated AFL pitching, with Briceño slashing .458/.515/.915 and leading the league in batting, slugging, OPS (1.430) and homers (seven in 16 games). Liranzo has raked at a .389/.476/.694 clip.

Signed for $800,000 out of Venezuela in 2022, Briceño features some of the best power potential in Detroit's system but didn't get a chance to show it much this season because he missed three months with a sprained posterior cruciate ligament in his right knee. He makes consistent contact and has a left-handed swing designed to drive balls in the air.

Acquired from the Dodgers in the Jack Flaherty trade in July, the switch-hitting Liranzo has a similar offensive profile to Briceño with perhaps a bit more power and a little less hitting ability. The biggest question with both is whether they can remain at catcher, which would greatly enhance their value.

Briceño almost certainly will wind up at first base because he's a below-average receiver with similar arm strength, and he has split his time between first and DH while with the Scottsdale Scorpions. Liranzo needs to polish his framing and receiving, though he does have a plus arm. He's the better prospect because he has a realistic chance to stay behind the plate.

Is Brice Matthews good enough to be the everyday 3rd baseman for the Astros next year? Can he make the position switch? -- @OrangeFire_

A suburban Houston product who starred in college at Nebraska before going 28th overall in the 2023 Draft, Matthews is one of the best athletes in the Astros system. He combines plus raw power with plus speed and batted .265/.384/.481 with 15 homers and 32 steals in 79 games during his first full pro season, playing at four levels while missing time with back issues.

Matthews spent the last two weeks of the season in Triple-A and played a total of 21 games at third base after spending most of his college and early pro career at shortstop. Houston will have a hole at hot corner if Alex Bregman departs as a free agent, but Matthews' bat probably needs another half-season in the Minors and his defense at third base needs a lot more work. He has just average arm strength and inconsistent accuracy with his throws, so he may be best suited for center field or second base in the long term.