This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki’s Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The Phillies haven’t clinched until they have clinched, but they aren’t the 1964 Phillies or the 2007 Mets, either.

They are going to win their first NL East title since 2011.

FanGraphs gives the Phils a 99.4 percent chance to win the division, even after Friday night’s 11-3 blowout loss to the Mets at Citizens Bank Park. It could happen next week, especially if they win Saturday and Sunday. The Phillies have had rough stretches this year, but there is no reason to think they will not wrap up the division title, then possibly a first-round bye.

They are playing well, but they have a few lingering issues:

Bryce Harper’s power

Harper has not homered since Aug. 9, which makes this the second-longest homerless drought of his career (127 plate appearances). He had a 166-plate-appearance homerless streak last year.

Harper has been playing with a sore wrist and a sore right elbow, which has affected his swing. But there have been a few close calls recently. He hit a ball literally off the top of the right-field wall on Sunday in Miami. He hit a couple more balls off the right-field wall on Monday and Tuesday at the Bank. He had four hits, including three doubles, on Tuesday against the Rays.

“I don’t think I missed anything,” Harper said on Tuesday. “I don’t understand how the ball’s not going. You hit it at 108 [mph] and 20-22 [degree launch angle] and it’s not going out of the yard. I’ve never seen that at the Bank.

“I’ve just got to keep going.”

Harper has been barreling fewer balls and hitting more ground balls since he last homered. He barreled 11.3 percent of balls in play through Aug. 9, but only 4.5 percent of balls in play since. But Harper entered Friday with a .999 OPS since Aug. 23. He has barreled 6.6 percent of balls in play since then, an indication that he might be moving in the right direction.

Suárez’s effectiveness
If the postseason started Sunday and the Phillies could set up their rotation how they wanted, where would Ranger Suárez fit? He has a 4.19 ERA in four starts since missing a month because of a lower back injury. His velocity has been down in each of his past two starts. He gave up a career-high 12 hits on Tuesday against the Rays.

Suárez said he is healthy, but the Phillies have mentioned possible “dead arm,” or that the southpaw is still building up after missing a month.

“I feel like I’m in a good place right now,” Suárez said through the team’s interpreter.

Aaron Nola hasn’t pitched well recently, either. He hasn’t completed five innings in either of his past two starts. He allowed two three-run homers in the fifth inning on Friday night. Connor Brogdon was the last Phillies pitcher to allow two three-run homers in an inning (April 20, 2021, vs. the Giants).

“I have no concern,” manager Rob Thomson said. “We’re not in [the postseason] until we’re in. I’ve said that all along. But I think his performance in October has showed that he can bounce back.”

Alec Bohm’s left hand
Bohm injured his left hand on a swing on Aug. 29. It didn’t seem to be serious at the time, but the pain lingered long enough that the team eventually placed him on the 10-day injured list. But Bohm is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment on Saturday with Triple-A Lehigh Valley. He is expected to be activated on Monday in Milwaukee.

Bohm had his left hand wrapped on Friday when he took batting practice. He said Friday night that he will keep hitting with the hand wrapped.

“Right now, it’s safe,” he said. “It definitely feels better with it. It’s the wrap for now. If I get to a point where I’m hitting and I don’t need it, we’ll ditch it.”

No. 5 starter

Kolby Allard starts for the Phillies on Saturday. He will be the Phillies’ fourth No. 5 starter in the past four turns through the rotation. Taijuan Walker had a 9.17 ERA in four starts in August, which moved him to the bullpen. Tyler Phillips allowed six runs in two-thirds of an inning in Toronto on Sept. 3, and Seth Johnson allowed nine runs in 2 1/3 innings in Miami on Sunday.

The No. 5 starter is not a long-term issue for the Phillies. They will not need one in the postseason. But Allard will make two more starts before the end of the season, following Saturday’s game against the Mets. Those two games could be the difference between the Phillies earning home-field advantage throughout the postseason or only through the NLDS, if they would play the Dodgers in the NLCS, for example.

Allard doesn’t need to dazzle. He just needs to give the Phillies’ offense a chance to win the game.