Forecasting the Phillies' 40-man roster

Forecasting the Phillies' 40-man roster

October 26th, 2021

PHILADELPHIA -- The Phillies played their final game 22 days ago, finishing the season 82-80 and 6 1/2 games behind the Braves in the National League East. The Phils have a lot of work to do to catch the Braves. Here is a look at the players they currently have on the 40-man roster, and how they might fit heading into next season.

In parentheses next to each player’s name is their contract status entering the offseason. If there is nothing next to the name, that player is under team control and not eligible for salary arbitration:

CATCHER

(signed through 2025)
Realmuto battled a sore right shoulder in the second half, which affected him at times. His 4.4 WAR, however, still ranked fourth out of 24 catchers with 350 or more plate appearances, according to FanGraphs.

(third year of salary arbitration)
A clubhouse favorite, Knapp batted .152 in 159 plate appearances. He is a non-tender candidate, if only because the Phillies like their organizational catching depth with Rafael Marchan, Logan O’Hoppe, etc.


Manager Joe Girardi raves about Marchan’s work behind the plate. It could be enough to make him Realmuto’s backup in 2022. But enough teams like Marchan that he could be traded, too. Keep an eye on that.

FIRST BASE

(second year of salary arbitration)
Perhaps folks finally started to appreciate Hoskins’ impact on the offense, after watching it struggle without him in September. Since Hoskins’ big league debut on Aug. 10, 2017, he is 12th in baseball in homers (118) and 36th out of 450 qualified players in OPS (.862).

(free agent after the World Series)
Miller hit 20 homers in only 377 plate appearances, posting an .842 OPS against righties. The Phillies expect Hoskins to play every day next season, but is there a place for Miller in a potential platoon/bench role (and a possible DH?).

SECOND BASE

(signed through 2022, with a '23 club option)
Segura had his best season with the Phillies, slashing .290/.348/.436. The left side of the Phillies’ infield is in flux, but Segura always seems to be mentioned in trade rumors. This offseason should be no different.

THIRD BASE


It is imperative that Bohm improves because the organization cannot fix every problem via trades and free agency.

SHORTSTOP

(signed through 2022)
Gregorius had the worst year of his career with a .639 OPS and a 71 OPS+. He attributed his struggles to health. Regardless, the Phillies made it clear: Gregorius will have to earn his job in 2022.

BENCH

(free agent after the World Series)
The front office values what Galvis brings besides his defense: leadership. Are those things enough to bring him back?

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Both filled in admirably at times, with Maton playing short and second and Williams playing second, short, third, left and center. Both are utility candidates.

(salary arbitration eligible)
Torreyes is a Girardi favorite, so don’t rule out the possibility that he is in camp next spring.

OUTFIELD

(signed through 2031)
Is he the 2021 NL MVP or not?


Haseley left the organization for personal reasons in April. He returned, but never rejoined the Phillies. The club has holes in the outfield. Perhaps he gets a look in a platoon role.

(club option for 2022)
Girardi and the coaching staff like Herrera, although he cannot be their leadoff hitter again. Expect the Phillies to decline their $11.5 million club option, taking a $2.5 million buyout. But Herrera remains eligible for salary arbitration, meaning they could still tender him a contract if they want him back. Or, perhaps, they try to work out a deal at a lesser amount.


Moniak was supposed to play in the Arizona Fall League, but the team said he had a minor injury. Moniak had three hits in 33 at-bats last season. The Phillies need to get something from Haseley or Moniak in 2022.

(2022 club option)
McCutchen had a 1.027 OPS against lefties, but a .650 OPS against righties. Expect the Phillies to decline their $15 million club option and pay McCutchen a $3 million buyout.

(salary arbitration eligible)
The Lancaster, Pa., native did his job as a reserve. He is eligible for salary arbitration. Expect him to be non-tendered, although it would not be surprising to see him re-sign on a Minor League deal.

(first year of salary arbitration)
Quinn tore his left Achilles tendon in May. It is difficult imagining the Phillies tender him a contract in his first year of arbitration eligibility.


Vierling did enough in 77 plate appearances to enter discussions about his 2022 role. Could he fit in a platoon role with Haseley or Moniak?

ROTATION

(third year of arbitration)
He had surgery on the patellar tendon in his right knee on Sept. 10. The team estimates his recovery to be six to eight months, which means he could be pitching for the Phillies as early as March or as late as May.

(signed through 2022)
Gibson had a 5.09 ERA in 12 appearances with the Phillies following the trade with Texas. He will provide depth to the back end of the rotation.

(signed through 2022, with a 2023 club option)
Nola struggled by his standards, but almost everybody in the organization thinks he will bounce back big.


The Phillies would not have hung with the Braves as long as they did without Suárez’s contributions in the rotation in the final two months.

(signed through 2024)
Did he do enough to edge Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes and others for the NL Cy Young Award?

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The fivesome represents the organization’s starting pitching depth on the 40-man roster, although it makes sense for the Phillies to bring in a veteran or two to better handle inevitable injuries or struggles that arise.

BULLPEN

(second year of salary arbitration)

Girardi loves velocity and Alvarado has it, even if he doesn’t always find the strike zone. He is expected to return, although he would be an interesting trade chip.

(free agent after the World Series)

Bedrosian helped a short-handed bullpen down the stretch. If he returns, it likely would be on a Minor League deal.

(free agent after the World Series)
Bradley said he would love to return, but there are always a ton of relievers on the market, so it remains to be seen.


He figures to be a key piece in Girardi’s bullpen.


Like Brogdon, Coonrod will fit somewhere in the 2022 bullpen.

(enters second year of salary arbitration)
He is a bit of a wild card. Domínguez pitched better late in Triple-A, but he will need to show more in camp to win a job.

(free agent after the World Series)
He had a 4.13 ERA with the Phillies with 10 saves in 13 opportunities. The Phillies need a closer, but it is unlikely to be him.

(free agent after the World Series)
He struggled with the Phillies. He is unlikely to return.

(free agent after the World Series)
It makes a lot of sense for the Phillies to bring back Neris. Sure, he always seems to have a two-week stretch when he really struggles, but he always gets straightened out and pitches well the rest of the way.


Romero had Tommy John surgery in May, meaning he might not return until next summer at the earliest.

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This group shuttled back and forth at different times to help the bullpen. Anybody on the 40-man roster in camp is a candidate for a job, especially in the bullpen.