This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Still unsure what to make of that Padres’ first half? You're not alone.

San Diego returns from the All-Star break on Friday in Cleveland, sporting a 50-49 record and sitting one game out of the final National League Wild Card spot.

Could the Padres have been better? Yes. On multiple occasions they seemed poised to gain separation in the postseason picture -- and never did. Could they have been worse? Yes. This team dealt with injuries and absences to basically all of its most important players.

All of which is a long way of saying: You won't remember the 2024 Padres' regular season by their first 99 games. You'll remember it by their next 63.

"Probably the biggest thing is we're in contention,” said general manager A.J. Preller. “That's where you want to be. … Now it's definitely about things we can improve on. We're looking at that. If we're going to play in October, we've got some areas that we've got to continue to get better with.”

The next two weeks will be critical. Before the July 30 Trade Deadline, San Diego has a nine-game trip through Cleveland, D.C. and Baltimore. Without a winning record on that trip, the Padres would head into the Deadline as a .500 team or worse. When they return home, the first-place Dodgers await for a two-game series at Petco Park.

A fortnight from now, we’ll know a lot more about the direction of these 2024 Padres. For now …

“We’re in a spot where I think we can play into October,” Preller said. “We also understand we’ve got to be better in some areas. … We’ve basically got a 60-game sprint now.”

Second-half goal: Earn a Wild Card, enter postseason healthy
A season ago, the Padres felt they had a roster built for the postseason. They didn’t get there. This year, that roster has some question marks (mostly injury-related). But if Fernando Tatis Jr. and Joe Musgrove return from their injuries and perform to their All-Star capabilities, this is the type of group that could do damage in a short series. But again, they’ve got to get there first, and the NL Wild Card race remains a jumbled mess with eight teams separated by only four games.

Trade Deadline strategy: Add pitching, but buy smart
The Padres have already swung two major trades this season, landing Dylan Cease as they broke camp in Peoria, Ariz., then adding Luis Arraez in early May. Those deals addressed two major needs, but they also thinned the farm system. Clearly, San Diego still needs pitching -- at least one starter and one reliever. But in a seller’s market, the Padres would be wise not to swing too big, considering the resources they’ve already sacrificed. A back-of-the-rotation starter and a seventh-inning, medium-to-high-leverage-type reliever might be enough to fill out this staff.

Key player: Musgrove
Musgrove has been sidelined for most of the season while dealing with a bone spur in his right elbow, which caused inflammation and triceps tendinitis. He was scheduled to throw his first bullpen session on Wednesday, and he’s trending toward an August return. The Padres’ thin rotation could desperately use a stabilizing force, and Musgrove has proven that, when healthy, he can be one of the sport’s most dominant pitchers and an October weapon.

Prospect to watch: SS Leodalis De Vries (San Diego’s No. 4 prospect)
De Vries was MLB Pipeline’s top-ranked player in this year’s international class, and lately, he’s begun to show why. The 17-year-old switch-hitting shortstop recently went deep four times in a three-game span, including homers from both sides of the plate on July 5. Right now, the Padres need pitching, and the cost will be steep. Potential trade partners will undoubtedly inquire about De Vries, but San Diego would need to be completely blown away to move a talent like him.