FAQ: Padres gearing up for busy offseason

October 31st, 2023

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell's Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

When the World Series comes to an end at some point this week, things are going to get awfully busy for the Padres. In addition to hiring a manager, they’re faced with a number of key dates and decisions on the horizon.

Here's what to expect in the coming weeks:

Which players are free agents?
In short, the Padres have a lot of them. Earlier this offseason, I looked at the potential outcomes for all 13 possible free agents, but a handful of those players have team or player options. Currently, the team has nine players who officially become free agents five days after the World Series ends. Here's the list:

Blake Snell, Josh Hader, Gary Sánchez, Garrett Cooper, Luis García, Jurickson Profar, Ji Man Choi, Rich Hill and Drew Pomeranz.

Snell and Hader are the big ones, with Snell coming off an All-Star-caliber season and Hader his fifth consecutive trip to the All-Star Game. But Sánchez, Cooper, García and perhaps even Profar are players the Padres could look to bring back or replace.

Who might receive a qualifying offer and what are the deadlines for that?
Snell and Hader are almost certainly the only two. (And, considering their stature as two of the market's biggest free agents, they seem likely to decline those offers.)

In brief, a qualifying offer represents a one-year offer worth the mean salary of MLB’s 125 highest-paid players. The offers must be made by clubs five days after the World Series ends, and players have 10 days to decide whether to accept.

Because San Diego exceeded the Competitive Balance Tax in 2023, the compensatory pick(s) should either Snell or Hader depart after rejecting a qualifying offer would come after the fourth round of the Draft.

Which players have options?
Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha each signed a complex contract last winter featuring both team and player options. In short, the Padres have a two-year, $32 million option on each pitcher. If those options aren't exercised, the decision moves to the player. Martinez has an $8 million player option for each of the next two seasons. Wacha, meanwhile, has a $6.5 million player option for 2024, followed by $6 million options in '25 and '26. That process will play out over the five days following the conclusion of the World Series.

The other two option situations seem a bit less complicated. Seth Lugo is coming off an outstanding season in his return to a starting role, and he owns a one-year, $7.5 million player option. It seems likely he'll decline it.

Meanwhile, Matt Carpenter owns a one-year, $5.5 million player option. Chances are high he'll exercise it, and the Padres will either look to find a way to offload that salary or release him.

When is the non-tender deadline and who is a candidate to be non-tendered?
The Padres must decide to tender contracts to eligible players before the Nov. 17 deadline. All arbitration-eligible players are guaranteed a 2024 contract if they're on the team after that date.

The Padres have six such players -- Juan Soto, Scott Barlow, Tim Hill, Adrian Morejon, Trent Grisham and Austin Nola.

Nola is an obvious non-tender candidate. Grisham is a tricky one. He’s an elite defensive center fielder, but he hasn’t come close to meeting expectations offensively. While Grisham’s glove provides plenty of value, his bat -- after two seasons below the Mendoza line -- might make him expendable. Grisham made $3.175 million in 2023, his first year of arbitration.

What's the status of the 40-man roster?
Right now, it’s full. But with at least nine free agents set to come off the books after the World Series, San Diego has room to activate its seven players who finished the season on the 60-day IL.

Of course, there are a handful of prospects who must be added to the roster or be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft. That list includes two of the organization's top 10 prospects per MLB Pipeline, Jairo Iriarte (No. 6) and Brandon Valenzuela (No. 9). The deadline to protect players by adding them to the 40-man roster is Nov. 14, with the Rule 5 Draft taking place Dec. 6 during the Winter Meetings.

Nonetheless, it would be a bit much to call those forthcoming decisions a "roster crunch" considering the team's overall lack of depth. There are a handful of players on the current 40-man roster who are candidates to be designated for assignment.

What will they be looking to add in free agency?
Pitching. Pitching. Probably a bat or two. And also: pitching.

The number of pitchers San Diego acquires is largely contingent on the forthcoming option decisions. But even if Wacha and Martinez return, the Padres would still be looking for a back-end rotation option or two. They could also use help in the bullpen.

Offensively, the lineup seems mostly settled. But San Diego's lack of depth was exposed in 2023, and it will look to add a couple of pieces to its bench -- presumably a first-base-type bopper and a catcher to pair with Luis Campusano (perhaps even Sánchez).

Which players are trade candidates?
Let's get the biggest out of the way first: Soto. He's due a raise on his 2023 salary of $23 million in his final season of arbitration. A year before he is slated to hit free agency, the Padres have said they plan to first explore an extension. But if it seems like Soto is bound for the open market next winter, San Diego will likely explore the possibility of recouping some value for him in a trade. Of course, the cost for any interested club would be steep.

The aforementioned Grisham is another trade candidate before the non-tender deadline. Ha-Seong Kim is coming off the best year of his career and, like Soto, is a free agent after next season. It's unlikely he'd be dealt, but not inconceivable. By moving either Kim or Jake Cronenworth, the team could alleviate its middle-infield logjam -- though trading either of those two comes with obvious downsides. Both are solid offensively, excellent defensively and well-liked in the clubhouse.

Perhaps the biggest question on the trade front (after Soto) is which prospects the Padres would be willing to move. They've been burned in the past by dealing young players for short-term fixes. They've also managed to restock their farm system after making big trades.

So how do they fix some of these holes on a big league roster that’s undeniably talented but also flawed? Remember, general manager A.J. Preller has never been one to shy away from the trade market.