What does rest of offseason hold for SD?

December 26th, 2024

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The holidays mark the unofficial halfway point of the baseball offseason, and the Padres still have plenty of work to do. Their first half was quiet. Their second half won’t be.

With three months until Opening Day, MLB.com asked its reporters: What's the biggest question your team has to answer before Spring Training?

As far as I'm concerned, it's not about Japanese ace Roki Sasaki. That's fairly straightforward: Will he or won't he? No, the most important question facing the Padres over the next couple months is:

Outside of their pursuit of Sasaki... what else will they do?

Here's a breakdown of what comes next:

Why the Sasaki decision doesn’t dictate much

Sasaki's free agency is a unique one. Typically, when an elite free agent is available, teams construct their offseason plans around that player. Sasaki is certainly an elite free agent, but that isn't the case here.

Why? First, Sasaki was posted at 23 years old, meaning he will make only a rookie salary, plus an international signing bonus. In terms of the big league roster, Sasaki's signing wouldn’t change things financially.

"We're able to go do other things and put our team together," said general manager A.J. Preller. "And then focus on Roki, see where that leads us."

Then there's the nature of his position. Sasaki is a 23-year-old starter who hasn't yet thrown more than 130 innings in a season. He's coming from NPB, where starters traditionally pitch once per week. Even if the Padres land Sasaki, they'd need to handle him with care this year. Which means they still need another starter. At least one.

A trade in the works?

The Padres feel relatively confident in the upside of their current roster. They’ve got superstars on offense, front-line weapons in the rotation and one of the best bullpens in baseball. But if, as has been reported, the Padres would like to remain under the first CBT threshold, they don’t have much wiggle room to supplement that group.

Which is why trade rumors have begun to surface. Dylan Cease has been the most prominent name mentioned, for obvious reasons. First, he’s very good, and the Padres could theoretically fetch a strong return. He’s also entering his final season before free agency -- and he’s due a raise in arbitration.

So what are the Padres trying to accomplish if they were to deal Cease (perhaps their best pitcher)? Think of it like a lite version of the Juan Soto trade. In that deal, they traded a clearly superior player in order to fill multiple holes with players with multiple years of control.

Who else could be dealt?

Other Padres with seemingly tradeable salaries and contracts: Michael King, Luis Arraez, Robert Suarez and Jake Cronenworth.

Each of those situations is different. It’s somewhat unfair to lump them together. But with each, the contract is relatively affordable, and the Padres could get something in return, plus financial flexibility.

Arraez and King are also in their final year before free agency. Unlike Cease, however, their value is less straightforward, given Arraez’s polarization and the fact that King has only spent one season as a starter. Cronenworth is another trade candidate, but that would open a hole in the Padres’ infield -- and for what return?

Does that make Suarez the likeliest of this group to be dealt? He plays a position (closer) in high demand at a relatively affordable salary ($10 million). The Padres have other options for the back-end of their bullpen, and they’d likely boost their roster significantly with whatever return they’d get.

Where do the Padres add?

The first priority should be catcher -- but, well, there aren’t a bunch of those available. Still, even if it’s a cheap, defense-first option, the Padres could use a complement for Luis Campusano. Any starters they’re looking to woo -- including Sasaki -- will (rightly) want to know who they’ll be throwing to.

And speaking of starters… they could use a couple. It’s possible they would look to move a reliever or two into a starting role. Maybe Matt Waldron or Randy Vásquez takes a step forward. Still, they’ll be looking.

“Every year -- I don’t think it’s ever going to change -- you’re looking for starters,” Preller said.

Then there’s the glaring vacancy in left field and the middle of the lineup. Jurickson Profar filled it last season and still hasn’t signed. There's a clear desire from Profar to return to San Diego.

But Profar is coming off a career year, and despite several cracks at free agency, he's yet to truly cash in. This is his best chance, and it remains unclear if the Padres would meet his demands. At the very least, they’d probably need to shuffle their roster elsewhere to do so.