How can Padres reach the next level in '23?

November 3rd, 2022

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SAN DIEGO -- Suffice it to say the questions presented to the Padres this offseason aren't quite as existential as the questions they faced this time last year.

San Diego's got a manager in place. The bulk of the club's coaching staff is expected to return. And the Padres got out in front of one major question by signing to a five-year extension in July.

But that doesn't mean this winter won't be eventful. Quite the opposite, in fact. The Padres will retain the core of a roster that reached the National League Championship Series in 2022, and they'll add Fernando Tatis Jr. to that mix.

Now, it seems imperative that general manager A.J. Preller fills out the fringes of this roster correctly, because the ceiling might be World Series-caliber high. Here's a look at some of what lies ahead:

Which players will be free agents?
Not too much roster turnover, save for two critical spots: In the rotation and at first base. Midseason trade acquisitions and are free agents, and first baseman is almost certain to join them. (More on that in a second.)

On the pitching side, and will hit free agency, leaving a void at the back of the Padres' rotation. Right-handed relievers and will also hit the open market.

Which players have options?
It's a fairly substantial list -- not necessarily in number but in the impact of the players who might depart.

Myers has a $20 million team option that will almost certainly be declined, though both the Padres and Myers have said they'd be open to a reunion at a lower price tag.

Meanwhile, three Padres have very interesting decisions ahead regarding their player options. Left fielder (slated to make $7.5 million in 2023) and right-handers ($5 million) and ($6.5 million) can all opt out.

All three might be able to make more on the open market, having posted solid seasons in 2022, but the Padres have interest in retaining each of them.

Where does the 40-man roster stand right now?
Lots of room. The Padres will welcome only two players back from the 60-day injured list in and . Meanwhile, it's possible they see 10 players depart via free agency, not to mention a couple of non-tender candidates.

That should leave the Padres plenty of room to make additions to the 40-man this winter, whether via free agency or protecting prospects from the Rule 5 Draft.

Who are the non-tender candidates?
is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility. Adams has two more. Both are candidates to be non-tendered by the Padres.

Adams missed nearly the entire season with an elbow injury and underwent flexor tendon surgery in August, likely ruling him out for most, if not all, of next season.

Alfaro, meanwhile, struggled mightily in the second half and would be due a raise on his $2.73 million salary. The Padres seem content to turn to and as their projected catcher tandem, while scouring the free-agent market for other backstop options.

Where will the Padres look to add?
We've covered most of it already. The rotation and first base are near certainties. The Padres like to fill out their bullpen, too, though if they bring back Suarez and get a healthy Pomeranz, it's doubtful they'll make a major splash in free agency.

Two positions to keep an eye on: Catcher and center field. Ultimately, Nola and Trent Grisham seized those roles down the stretch and thrived in the postseason. But both struggled at times, too, and the Padres will weigh their options.

Any extension candidates? 
The Padres took care of the Musgrove deal during the regular season.

Now it might be the offseason of . In his end-of-season presser, Preller noted the possibility of Soto spending "many years to come" in San Diego. Soto, of course, turned down a reported 14-year, $440 million extension with the Nationals before he was dealt to the Padres. Preller added that talks would only begin this winter, saying, "This offseason is kind of taking the temperature, seeing where his head is at going forward."

One other extension candidate to keep an eye on is , who is set to become a free agent after the 2023 season. The Padres could use some stability in their rotation beyond '23 and Darvish, even at 36, just turned in one of his best seasons in the big leagues.

What's the status of the coaching staff?
There still may be some turnover as other teams look to fill out their own staffs, with the potential they’d pluck from the Padres. But Bob Melvin is back, and he said he was very pleased with the job his staff did in 2022. Sounds like if Melvin has his way, he'll bring his entire staff back for the '23 season, though it remains to be seen if that will be possible.

What are the key dates to know?
The General Managers Meetings take place from Nov. 7-9 in Las Vegas. The deadline to protect prospects from the Rule 5 Draft is Nov. 15. The non-tender deadline is Nov. 18. The Winter Meetings are set for Dec. 4-8 in San Diego. The international signing period closes on Dec. 15. Option decisions are due five days after the end of the World Series.