3 key series that will determine O's fate

September 4th, 2024

This story was excerpted from Jake Rill’s Orioles Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

BALTIMORE -- The Orioles didn’t play their best in July (12-13) or August (13-15). Their list of injured players continues to grow. They haven’t been able to get on a roll in the second half, as their active three-game winning streak marks their first since mid-July.

Yet, the O’s (81-59) entered Wednesday with a half-game lead over the Yankees (80-59) in the American League East.

“We’re right in the thick of things,” veteran catcher James McCann said. “We’re right in the thick of things, not only in our division but for the best record in baseball. I’ve said it for several months: We don’t want to peak in July and August; we want to peak in the middle of September going into October.”

Baltimore could be on its way to doing exactly that, as the club appears to be building momentum and has injury reinforcements on the way.

With September underway, let’s look ahead to three key series for the O’s that will help decide how the AL standings shake out.

Sept. 9-11 at Boston
Season series: Orioles lead Red Sox, 7-3

Although Baltimore has already clinched a victory in the season series against its AL East rival -- ensuring the O’s would win any potential standings tiebreaker with the Sox -- Boston will have the opportunity to play spoiler, even if its own postseason hopes are dwindling.

The Red Sox, who entered Wednesday 4 1/2 games out of a Wild Card berth, have hung around to at least keep things interesting. They also split the four-game series with the Orioles the last time the two teams met at Camden Yards from Aug. 15-18.

A lot of meaningful baseball has been played at Fenway Park in Septembers past, and these games could impact both the AL East and AL Wild Card races. Baltimore also could benefit by improving its divisional record, which could come into play for potential Wild Card tiebreakers.

Sept. 24-26 at New York
Season series: Orioles lead Yankees, 6-4

Circle the calendars for these dates, because this could be one of MLB’s biggest series of the season.

It’s quite possible the O’s and Yanks will be battling for the AL East title over these three nights in the Bronx. The two rivals have been jockeying for position atop the division standings for weeks, as both have been in first place for periods of time since the beginning of August. But neither has pulled ahead by more than 1 1/2 games during that span.

The Orioles need to win at least one of these three contests to win the season series, which would decide the division champion if they finished with identical records atop the standings. Of course, they’ll be looking for more than that to capture the crown before the final weekend of the regular season.

Sept. 27-29 at Minnesota
Season series: Orioles lead Twins, 3-0

If Baltimore excels in New York and wraps up the AL East race earlier than this, then this series won’t carry much importance for the Orioles. But what if things go wrong and the O’s need to try to secure the first Wild Card spot instead?

Well, then this three-game set at Minnesota could be big. The Twins (75-63) entered Wednesday in the second AL Wild Card spot, and they’ll be looking to chase down either the Orioles or Yankees down the stretch. The first WC team gets to host a best-of-three Wild Card Series, while the second and third will be on the road.

Like the previous set vs. the Yanks, the O’s will need to win only one of the three games against the Twins to take the season series.