FAQ: Here is the O’s offseason checklist

November 1st, 2021

BALTIMORE -- What sort of winter will it be for the Orioles? After completing their third 100-loss season in four years, the club is now preparing for a 2022 season that should feature the debuts of top prospects Adley Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez, and perhaps a turn toward more winning ways.

But first, an entire offseason awaits. And with it, pressing issues. Let’s break down the main decisions the club will face in the coming months:

What’s the first order of business?
The Orioles have already begun reshaping their 40-man roster, clearing five spots in October. They also reshuffled their big league and Minor League coaching staffs, parting ways with hitting coach Don Long, Triple-A manager Gary Kendall, Triple-A pitching coach Kennie Steenstra, and Florida Complex League manager Alan Mills. The team must also find a new Double-A manager to replace Buck Britton, who will take over for Kendall at Triple-A.

Which players are free agents?
The Orioles have one impending free agent: right-hander . Signed to a Minor League deal last offseason, Harvey earned a rotation spot and went 6-14 with 6.27 ERA in 28 starts, completing his largest workload in years at age 32. The former All-Star wasn’t dominant, and is no longer the flamethrowing strikeout artist of his prime. But there was enough to like in his underlying metrics and the presence he brought to Baltimore’s very inexperienced clubhouse to suggest a reunion this winter might be possible.

Which players have options?
None.

Who might be a non-tender candidate?
The Orioles trimmed their potentially large arbitration class with significant roster shuffling over the summer, and by outrighting Pat Valaika amid other moves this month. As it stands, six arbitration-eligible players remain: , , , Pedro Severino, Jorge López and .

Mancini is third-time eligible. Santander and Severino are second-year eligible. Means, López and Scott are entering their first year of arbitration.

Of those, Severino seems like the most vulnerable after struggling on both sides of the ball in 2021. Since 2019, Severino has hit .249/.315/.397 with 29 home runs as Baltimore’s primary backstop, owning a share of the American League lead in passed balls in each of the past two seasons. The impending arrival of Rutschman also suggests Severino’s time in the Charm City might be reaching an end.

Who might be a trade candidate?
All told, the O's '22 arbitration salaries could represent about $10 million in total raises for what is effectively the core of the Orioles’ rebuild minus Cedric Mullins. Will the front office keep it together?

The Orioles have cut payroll extensively during this rebuilding period and frequently shopped Mancini, Means and Santander on the trade market without pulling the trigger. Mancini is healthy again and a free agent after next season. Means is still affordable enough to warrant interest league-wide. Santander is coming off a down year but is still young (27) and productive (50 homers since ’19) enough to be coveted by other clubs.

With many fans asking if the Orioles will start spending this winter, the best sign of their 2022 intentions will be whether they subtract from this group in deals before the arb deadline.

When does the club have to make those decisions?
The non-tender deadline is Dec. 2 at 8 p.m. ET.

Who needs to be added to the 40-man roster this winter to avoid the Rule 5 Draft?
The Orioles have five Top 30 prospects per MLB Pipeline who are Rule 5 eligible for the first time this winter: left-hander DL Hall (No. 3), right-hander Kyle Bradish (No. 8), infielder Terrin Vavra (No. 13), left-hander Kevin Smith (No. 14) and infielder Adam Hall (No. 15). Triple-A outfielder Robert Neustrom and left-hander Nick Vespi are among those also Rule 5 eligible who could warrant consideration.

Baltimore protected six prospects last winter, a relatively large class. The club has already cleared five 40-man roster spots and has five players to reinstate from the 60-day injured list before the Rule 5 deadline. That means more 40-man shuffling is on the way.

When does all this need to be set?
Teams must reinstate players from the 60-day IL by five days after the conclusion of the World Series. The deadline to protect prospects from the Rule 5 draft is Dec. 1. These deadlines will happen as scheduled because they are covered by the current collective bargaining agreement, which expires on Dec. 1.

Will the Orioles be active in free agency? What kind of help do they need? Who might they target?
If the Orioles are ready to begin adding via free agency in earnest, they have several areas of need. The infield and pitching staff in particular were glaring weaknesses in 2021 and don’t figure to be filled by top prospect promotions in ’22, unlike, say, catcher (read: Rutschman).

But the stronger likelihood is the team not diving into the deep end of the free agency pool just yet, give its ’21 struggles at the big league level. The Orioles still need pitching depth and infield help. They could be in the market for both a shortstop and third baseman for the second consecutive winter. They’re also expected to sign a veteran starter or two for depth like last winter, perhaps to Minor League deals.

Any other housekeeping?
At the big league level, the Orioles must replace Long at hitting coach and decide on a new role for José Hernández, who served as the club’s assistant hitting coach under Long. There is also talk of the Orioles adding an analytics-minded coaching position to Brandon Hyde’s staff.