Here's what might decide Padres-Dodgers Game 5

Here's what might decide Padres-Dodgers Game 5

42 minutes ago

LOS ANGELES -- What’s at stake in Game 5 of the National League Division Series on Friday night? Oh, just about everything.

Most importantly, a spot in the NLCS awaits the winner. But there are Southern California bragging rights at stake, too. The Dodgers are looking for a payoff on their massive offseason investments. The Padres are looking for a payoff on their massive Trade Deadline investments.

It’s a big one, folks.

So how will Game 5 be won? These five factors might decide it:

1. Can L.A. get to Darvish early?
The Dodgers struggled to get anything going against Padres’ right-hander in Game 2, allowing the right-hander to dominate for seven innings. If that happens again, the Dodgers will be headed for a third consecutive NLDS exit.

Getting to Darvish early would give a raucous crowd something to cheer. It could also force the Padres into their bullpen earlier than they would like. The Dodgers have gotten to San Diego’s middle relievers in each of their two victories this series.

But the trio of Jason Adam, Tanner Scott and Robert Suarez is arguably the best in the game at the back end. If the Dodgers have to play from behind late, the task of winning a win-or-go-home game gets a lot more daunting.

2. Can Arraez set the table?
Fernando Tatis Jr. is the hottest hitter on the planet. He leads the postseason with four home runs and is hitting .500 with a 1.759 OPS.

The guy in front of him? After winning a third straight batting title during the regular season, has struggled to solve Dodgers pitching this series (and all season, really). He has just three singles in 18 at-bats in the NLDS after batting .152 in eight games vs. L.A. during the regular season.

If Arraez is on base, the Padres’ lineup is a force. It’s deep, and it’s excellent situationally. If Arraez isn’t on base, it’s suddenly just a touch easier to navigate the toughest stretch in that lineup, starting with Tatis.

3. Dodgers’ lineup depth
Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman need to be the best players on the field for the Dodgers. It’s why they’re among the highest-paid players in the game and why they each have a case to earn their way to Cooperstown when they retire.

But the middle and bottom of the Dodgers’ lineup could make their lives a whole lot easier. In the Dodgers’ two wins this series, the supporting cast has played a big role. Ohtani’s three-run homer in Game 1 was made possible because of quality at-bats from the bottom of the order. In Game 4, and Will Smith each hit a homer and Kiké Hernández set the table for Ohtani and Betts to get RBI hits in the second inning.

If Ohtani and Betts are coming to the plate with runners on base, the Padres -- as we’ve seen all series -- are in trouble.

4. Who gets creative?
The Padres have a plan, and it probably looks an awful lot like Game 2 -- a quality start from Darvish, before the back end of the bullpen locks it down.

The Dodgers have a plan, and it probably looks an awful lot like Game 4 -- lights-out stuff in short bursts from all of their pitchers.

But this is winner-take-all baseball with everything at stake. How often do these games go according to script? If Darvish is out early, how do the Padres cover those innings? Manager Mike Shildt wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Game 3 starter Michael King pitching in relief, and King said he’d make it known he wants to be available.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers nearly ran out of relievers in Game 4 (though with an eight-run lead, it wasn’t consequential). If the Padres get to and into the L.A. bullpen early, how do the Dodgers cover the rest of the innings?

Stay tuned. As the Dodgers have proved before -- handing the ball to Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer for saves in the past -- a Division Series Game 5 can get wild.

5. Which vibe wins out?
These two teams don’t like each other. That’s been pretty clear all decade, but especially in this series. A big part of that is because of how differently both teams operate.

The Padres are more vocal and boisterous than the Dodgers. When the Padres get ahead, it’s hard to stop the avalanche. The Dodgers, on the other hand, love boasting about their calm demeanor. It’s hard to argue with the success that has come with 11 NL West titles in 12 seasons.

But with both of their seasons coming down to one game, it could be a battle of which style wins out -- the energy of the Padres or the efficiency of the Dodgers.