Here are 5 keys to tonight's NLCS Game 3

October 16th, 2024

The last time the NLCS was played at Citi Field, it was Oct. 18, 2015, and Daniel Murphy homered for the fourth straight game in what would become a six-game streak. On the mound, Noah Syndergaard combined with Jon Niese, Addison Reed, Tyler Clippard and Jeurys Familia to beat the Cubs -- a team that had, at the time, not won a World Series in more than 100 years -- and their rookie third baseman Kris Bryant.

On Wednesday, Citi Field will play host to the NLCS again, with the Dodgers in town for Game 3 of a series that the Mets tied at 1-1 with an impressive win on Monday in Los Angeles. Mets fans have had nearly a decade to build up an appetite for a game of this magnitude, so much so that you’re going to be able to feel the ground shake in Hoboken.

Here are the five biggest storylines as these teams get ready to battle for the NLCS lead.

NLCS Game 3: Dodgers at Mets (Tied 1-1)
8:08 p.m. ET, FS1
SP: Walker Buehler (LAD) vs. Luis Severino (NYM)

1. What can the Dodgers get out of Buehler?

The Dodgers really didn’t have much of a choice other than going with a bullpen game strategy in Game 2, but it didn’t work out well for them, as the baseball that Mark Vientos sent screaming out of Dodger Stadium can well attest. While Buehler slots in for Game 3, giving the Dodgers (in theory) a more traditional starter, it should be noted: The way things have been going for Buehler, the Dodgers really can’t be sure they’re not getting another bullpen game.

It was a year of misery from Buehler in his return from Tommy John surgery, as he went 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA over 16 regular-season starts, looking nothing like the two-time All-Star who finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2021. That continued in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Padres, with San Diego roughing him up for six runs (all in the second inning). While Buehler did stick the game out for five innings, they were anything but efficient: He gave up seven hits and, most alarmingly, didn’t strike out a single batter. If anything, he was lucky he didn’t give up more.

How many runs will the Dodgers be willing to sacrifice to get some innings from Buehler? And what does it say about the state of the Dodgers’ rotation that we’d even ask such a question?

While this begins a stretch of three games over three straight days in Queens, manager Dave Roberts mostly stayed away from his key bullpen pieces in both Games 1 and 2, giving him some leeway to have a quick hook if Buehler struggles again.

2. Will Francisco Lindor set the stage again?

It didn’t take long for the Mets to make it clear that they were putting their miserable Game 1 in the rearview mirror. Lindor, the first batter of Game 2, fouled off some tough Ryan Brasier pitches before launching a 90 mph cutter far, far over the right field wall. The homer not only ended the Dodgers’ streak of 33 straight innings without giving up a run, it immediately brought back all those Mets Vibes that we’ve all been witnessing for the last fortnight. The Mets looked like these Mets again.

It’s no surprise that Lindor would be the guy who would pivot the series, and thus the Mets’ season, the way he did: He has, after all, been doing just that all year. Over the next three days, only one player is going to hear “M-V-P!” chants every time he comes to the plate. It’s, uh, not hard to see why.

3. Can the Dodgers’ MVPs bounce back?

The reason Lindor is not headed for the first MVP Award of his career is on the other side in this series. Shohei Ohtani, of course, is one of only three past MVP winners in the Dodgers lineup, along with Mookie Betts and a hobbled Freddie Freeman. It should be noted, however, that they all just collectively had a very miserable Game 2, going 0-for-12 with six strikeouts. (It is the opinion here that if you get those three to go 0-for-12 in a game, you should get a medal.)

This isn’t quite the same as shutting them down entirely, by the way: They did walk a combined three times. But the Dodgers were unable to make the Mets pay for those walks. Teoscar Hernández and Will Smith, the other batters in the top five spots of the L.A. lineup, went 0-for-7 themselves.

It looks like the key for New York is keeping the bases free of traffic. It’s pretty incredible that Ohtani is now 0-for-19 with the bases empty this postseason. (That’s a bit of a problem considering he’s the team’s leadoff man.) The Dodgers have had a top-heavy offense all season. It can’t really afford it to be, well, top-light.

4. Just how nuts will this ballpark be?

We attended every NLCS and World Series game at Citi Field in 2015 -- remember when Billy Joel sang along with 47,000 Mets fans to “Piano Man?” -- and the roar that stadium made still rings in our ears today. Because there haven’t been that many postseason games since that stadium was built -- again, this is the first NLCS game played there since then -- it has been sort of easy to forget just how loud and wild that building can get.

One could make the case that the Mets Vibes this year, with this out-of-nowhere run that can feel blessed by divine providence, are even better than they were back then. The place is going to have a Knicks-in-the-Finals-at-the-Garden, Thunderdome-esque atmosphere, one we suspect no one’s quite ready for. There have been a lot of huge moments happening with the Mets of late, and most of them -- Lindor’s NLDS Game 4 grand slam aside -- have gone down outside of Queens. This place is going to more than make up for it Wednesday. Seriously: Watch this again.

Prepare yourself.

5. Uh … aren’t the Mets the favorites now?

OK, forget the names on both the fronts and backs of the jerseys for both teams. If I told you one team:

  • Has a clear starting pitching advantage, lined up perfectly for them.
  • Has home-field advantage for the rest of the series.
  • Has an MVP candidate who is on an absolute heater right now.
  • Has, unlike their opponents, no major injury issues.
  • Has won so many comeback postseason games at this point that their fans have been floating on air for two weeks.

… wouldn’t you think that team was the obvious favorite in this series?

The Mets are thought to be the underdogs, and that’s reasonable, considering they finished nine games behind the Dodgers in the regular season, are the No. 6 seed and, you know, aren’t the team that has reached the postseason for 12 consecutive years. But if you look at the contours of how this series is now set up after the Mets’ Game 2 win, well, it’s sort of perfect for them right now, isn’t it? One Dodgers win in Game 3 would switch that, of course -- it is baseball, after all. But you’re kidding yourself if you think the Dodgers aren’t sweating right now. They should be.