These 3 matchups could decide NL WC Game
Joe Trezza
WASHINGTON -- The baseball world will descend on the nation's capital on Tuesday night, when the Nationals and Brewers meet with their seasons on the line. This year’s National League Wild Card Game is packed with intrigue and big stars, featuring two teams that looked dead in the water earlier this season but used contrasting styles to rally to the brink of the postseason.
Win and advance. That’s the mindset. But what will victory hinge on?
Here are three key matchups that could decide the game:
1. Max Scherzer vs. the first inning
Score first, hand the ball to the bullpen and let them do the rest. That was the Brewers’ blueprint last postseason, and they rode it all the way to Game 7 of the NL Championship Series against the Dodgers. It’ll be Milwaukee's strategy again in a one-game, winner-take-all setting. And it won't be against just one elite arm in Scherzer for the Nationals, who are ready to deploy Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin behind him, if necessary.
Brewers manager Craig Counsell’s unit looks different this October around uber-reliever Josh Hader, but the math is largely the same. Hader has pitched primarily when the Brewers are ahead -- although that may not be the case in this one-game playoff -- and his ability to throw multiple innings often gets Milwaukee across the finish line.
Offenses don’t often get to Scherzer, obviously. But, as is often the case against top starters, when they do, it’s early. Scherzer’s 4.33 first-inning ERA is higher than in any frame outside the sixth; he almost allowed as many runs in the first as he did in the second and third innings combined this season.
The Brewers, for their part, scored more runs in the first than in any other frame this season.
All of which is to say scoring first will be paramount. Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff (11-3, 3.62) is no slouch, having received his first All-Star selection this season, but he is unlikely to pitch deep into this game, having made just two appearances since being activated from the injured list from an oblique strain. Milwaukee wants to get to Scherzer before he gets rolling, or before another ace-caliber arm enters the game.
So, who has the advantage? Head-to-head numbers only tend to say so much, but they can be useful in an exercise like this. No Nationals hitters have enough history against Woodruff to glean much (Anthony Rendon has the most with nine plate appearances). Scherzer, on the other hand, is no stranger to many of Milwaukee’s regulars. And they haven’t fared well: Lorenzo Cain is 0-for-15 with seven strikeouts lifetime against Scherzer, Ryan Braun is 0-for-14 with five strikeouts, Mike Moustakas is 6-for-36 with 11 punchouts, and Yasmani Grandal is 1-for-16.
2. Washington’s starters vs. Milwaukee’s relievers
Much has been made about the dual styles Washington and Milwaukee used to get here, but the dichotomy is the main theme of this matchup and worth digging deeper into. Pitching wise, the two teams are essentially inverses of each other in terms of roster construction. Washington has its trio of frontline starters, which comprises one of the game’s best rotations, but it also features the NL’s worst relief corps. The Brewers didn’t have a starting pitcher qualify for the ERA title this season, instead relying on a power bullpen for the bulk of their innings.
“It’s basically like we’re starting in the sixth inning with their pitching staff,” Nationals outfielder Adam Eaton said.
This game takes that to an extreme. Nationals manager Dave Martinez is likely to turn to Strasburg or Corbin before any of his relievers, which could nullify the advantage Milwaukee would seemingly otherwise enjoy in the middle and late innings. Woodruff is only stretched out to about 50 pitches, so even if the game is close, there is a chance the Brewers turn to Jordan Lyles (their best second-half starter), Brent Suter and Drew Pomeranz (and who knows, maybe even Hader) before Scherzer’s outing is over.
“It’s one game. We have to win this game,” Martinez said. “I brought Stephen into my office and asked if he’d be willing to come out of the bullpen. His response was: ‘I closed before, in college. I’m ready to do whatever you ask me to do.’”
Scherzer will probably have to put up zeros, given the frequency at which the Brewers’ relievers have done so lately. They enter as baseball’s best unit over the past month in terms of strikeout rate and strikeout-to-walk-rate while ranking third in WHIP and strand rate, and fourth in FIP.
The recently crowned NL Reliever of the Month for September, Suter pitched to a 0.49 ERA over 18 1/3 innings in his first month back from Tommy John surgery. He and Pomeranz both posted 0.60 WHIPs last month. Pomeranz and Hader ranked first and second in strikeout percentage. Suter and Pomeranz combined to issue two walks in 31 2/3 innings.
“We’re different, and playoff teams should be different,” Counsell said. “Teams have to play to their strengths, take advantage of their strengths, take advantage of their personnel. I think our depth and numbers are what make our pitching good, and that’s how we have treated games. They are starting a guy tomorrow night that’s probably going to the Hall of Fame. So, by nature, they’re going to handle the situation a little differently.”
3. Cat vs. mouse
In a winner-take-all game where runs figure to be at a premium, every base matters, so keep a close eye on how each team handles the running game.
The Brewers are almost certain to start Grandal over backup Manny Piña, despite Piña’s superior catch-and-throw skills. That could bode well for a Nationals team that in Trea Turner (35 stolen bases), Victor Robles (28 steals), and Eaton (15 steals), sport three players who can change the game with their legs. It’s a speed element that Milwaukee can't match with Christian Yelich sidelined and Lorenzo Cain battling an ankle injury.
The question is can the Brewers contain it? His passed ball issues from last year's postseason aside, Grandal is merely league-average at throwing out runners, and he actually outperforms his arm strength and pop-time metrics. Piña ranks among baseball’s best in both categories, but Grandal gives the Crew a much more potent offensive weapon.
“That’s something both sides are going to be contemplating,” Counsell said. “They have some runners that are capable of stealing bases. We know that. The best way to counter that is to keep them off base. We have some ideas about that. But it’s a factor.”