Breaking down NL East bullpens for 2020

Breaking down NL East bullpens for 2020

February 11th, 2020

Early last season, as the Braves, Nationals, Mets and Phillies all jockeyed for position in the National League East, one scout commented that whichever team fixed its bullpen first would win the division. The Braves were most active, making multiple trades to improve their relief corps. As predicted, they ended up winning the division. But it was the Nationals who laughed last, altering their bullpen usage to an extreme during their World Series championship run.

Over the winter, all five NL East teams changed their bullpen mixes -- and perhaps with them, the balance of power in the division.

• NL East position-by-position: Catcher | Middle INF | Corner INF | Outfield | Rotation

Here is a look at the NL East bullpens.

Division’s best: Braves
The Braves will designate the closer, but Will Smith will draw plenty of save opportunities for a club that has significantly upgraded its bullpen since last year’s Trade Deadline. Like Melancon, Shane Greene and Chris Martin made immediate impacts after coming to Atlanta. Smith could also be an instant difference-maker.

Decisions about when to use Smith and Melancon will be influenced by when the opposing teams’ top left-handed hitters are most likely to bat. But Smith’s dominance extended beyond the left-on-left matchups he encountered during last year’s All-Star season with the Giants. Greene, who is also coming off an All-Star campaign, provides the Braves another quality setup option.

The three-batter minimum rule will enhance the value of depth, which the Braves strengthened when they re-signed and Martin. Luke Jackson, who was forced into the closer’s role last year, will be more fittingly used in middle-relief situations. Smith currently serves as the only left-handed option. But the Braves could opt to once again use as a reliever after giving him a chance to start during the Grapefruit League season.

The rest (in alphabetical order)

Marlins
Of all 30 MLB bullpens, only one had a negative Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement in 2019: the Marlins at minus-2.2. Their ERA was 4.97, which ranked sixth highest. Fully aware of the numbers, the Marlins' front office spent the offseason revamping the ‘pen.

, a 2017 All-Star who signed for $3.25 million, is considered the favorite to close. , who sported a 6.53 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP a year ago, returns as a lefty with tremendous pure stuff, but he has yet to put it all together. , limited to 15 appearances last year due to right elbow inflammation, is expected to be healthy and ready to go. , acquired from the Rays in a deal that sent Nick Anderson to Tampa Bay, is in the picture to throw high-leverage innings. , formerly with the Dodgers, brings postseason experience. And is a lefty acquired from the Yankees who has a chance to throw multiple innings.

Bullpen competition promises to be one of Miami's primary focuses in Spring Training.

Mets
Ask general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, and he’ll say this is one of baseball’s best bullpens. Their ceiling appears to be high, with , , , and Justin Wilson all serving as late-inning options. But Lugo is the only one of those pitchers without obvious question marks.

Díaz and Familia are both coming off career-worst seasons; the Mets expect bounce-back years from both, but it’s difficult to project exactly how they will fare. Betances is a four-time All-Star who missed nearly all of last season due to multiple injuries, signing with the Mets as he recovered from an Achilles tear. Wilson battled left elbow problems for much of 2019. All five of those pitchers could earn saves, though Díaz figures to have first crack at winning back the full-time closer job.

If even a few of those five prove trustworthy, the Mets should be in decent shape. Others in play for significant roles include and , as well as a rotating cast of younger pitchers who debuted in recent years. The Mets ranked 25th in bullpen ERA last season and made only one major addition in Betances. They’re banking on significant improvement from Díaz and Familia to transform this unit into an elite one.

Nationals
Think the Nationals weren’t concerned with their 2019 bullpen after finishing with the Majors’ second-worst ERA (5.68), and avoiding all but their top relievers during their World Series run? Consider the moves they made this winter: re-signed for two years; was acquired via trade; Minor League strikeout expert joined the staff; and Will Harris, one of the game’s most consistent relievers, signed for three years.

Also in camp for the first time are Trade Deadline acquisitions and . The Nationals hope that they, along with , can take steps forward this spring.

Throw in , closer and whoever loses the fifth-starter battle, and the Nats figure to have a much-improved bullpen. They likely won’t challenge the record they set of the highest bullpen ERA for a postseason team.

Phillies
The Phillies pinned many of their 2019 struggles on a bullpen that dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness. It is curious, then, that the front office made no significant offseason acquisitions to improve it.

Essentially, the Phillies are banking on , and Adam Morgan to successfully return from elbow injuries, and a handful of other relievers to step up. There are few certainties entering camp. returns as closer. Lefty José Álvarez is back. Lefty should also return, unless he upsets and for the No. 5 job in the rotation. If Pivetta or Velasquez do not make the rotation, they will move to the bullpen.

The Phillies are playing a numbers game. They claimed , and off waivers to compete for jobs. Veterans , Blake Parker, , and are in camp as non-roster invitees. The Phillies are bringing in prospects like Damon Jones and Kyle Dohy to camp to get their feet wet. There is talent here, but the Phillies will need some things to break right to be effective.