Evaluating Mets' plans for Draft, No. 10 pick
NEW YORK -- In addition to spending tens of millions on player contracts this winter, the Mets, in their first offseason under owner Steve Cohen, made a series of less-heralded additions to build out their front office. That included several analytics hires who have worked to provide a more quantitative approach to the annual MLB Draft.
According to general manager Zack Scott, the Mets are now able to evaluate and compare players in ways that vice president of amateur scouting Tommy Tanous has advocated for years. How that translates into 2021 Draft strategy for Tanous and scouting director Marc Tramuta remains to be seen, but the Mets will begin to showcase their new approach when the Draft begins on Sunday night.
• The Draft begins at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday (ESPN/MLB.com)
• The Mets have the 10th pick in Round 1
• The Mets' bonus pool is $9,026,300
“The art of decision-making is difficult when you’re dealing with so much information,” Scott said. “So any tools or people that we can add to help think more critically through that process is a good thing, and I know [is] welcomed by Tommy and Tram.
“I’m feeling very confident about the work that those guys have put in. They have a good track record of success, so I feel pretty good about it. And I really like their process, and I like that they have the open-mindedness to think about things critically and in different ways.”
Day 1 of the 2021 Draft will take place live from Denver’s Bellco Theatre on Sunday. It will feature the first 36 picks and will air on MLB Network and ESPN at 7 p.m. ET. Day 2, which will span rounds 2-10, begins at 1 p.m. ET on Monday. The Draft will conclude with rounds 11-20 on Tuesday, starting at 12 p.m. ET. MLB.com will simulcast MLB Network’s broadcast and provide live coverage on all three days.
Here’s a look at how the Mets will tackle the 2021 Draft:
Where do the Mets pick?
New York’s first pick is at No. 10 overall -- the organization’s highest since it selected Jarred Kelenic at No. 6 overall back in 2018. The last time the Mets held the 10th overall pick, they used it to take Michael Conforto in 2014.
Of note, the team does not have any supplementary picks in this year’s Draft. Its second selection will be No. 46, followed by No. 81, then No. 111, No. 142 and every 30th pick thereafter.
What will their strategy look like?
Under ex-GM Brodie Van Wagenen, the Mets employed one of the league’s most unique and aggressive Draft strategies, promising rich bonuses for blue-chippers who fell out of the first round by selecting mostly low-cost college seniors later in the Draft. In that fashion, the Mets managed to add first-round talents Matt Allan and J.T. Ginn to a 2019-20 haul that also included Brett Baty, Josh Wolf and Pete Crow-Armstrong.
It remains to be seen if the Mets will try the same type of thing again. Although Van Wagenen is gone, Tanous and Tramuta remain, so there won’t be any lack of continuity.
This year, the Mets have a bonus pool of $9,026,300 to spend on their first 10 picks, including $4,739,900 allotted for their first-rounder. Their total pool is nearly $2 million more than what they had to spend last year, when they allocated most of their available money to first- and second-rounders Crow-Armstrong and Ginn.
What does the system need?
Although most scouting directors are adamant about taking the best player available with every pick, the reality is that ties often go toward places of need. In the Mets’ case, starting pitching is a clear such area, especially considering Allan recently underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss more than a year of action. Last year’s second-rounder, Ginn, is now fully recovered from that same operation, but the Mets lack other high-ceiling starters on the farm. Adding pitching can only help the front office as it seeks to build a sustainable winner.
The Mets could also use long-term outfield help. They’ve been trying out fourth- and eighth-ranked prospects Baty and Mark Vientos in left field recently, but the organization is not as well-heeled in the outfield -- particularly at the upper levels of the Minors -- as it is on the infield dirt.
Whom might they pick?
Jonathan Mayo’s most recent MLB.com Mock Draft had the Mets targeting Boston College outfielder Sal Frelick -- a speedy, athletic type who profiles as a future leadoff hitter. It was just five years ago that the Mets took another Boston College product, Justin Dunn, in the first round of the Draft.
Mayo also listed UCLA shortstop Matt McLain and Sam Houston State outfielder Colton Cowser as possibilities. But it’s important to remember that, as always, the Draft is likely to be full of surprises.