The most improved players of 2024 will be ...

The most improved players of 2024 will be ...

February 5th, 2024

Every season, we can point to a large number of players who made meaningful strides from the previous year.

Which players are expected to improve the most from 2023 to ‘24? To find out, we took every player who had at least 400 plate appearances or 85 innings last season and compared their 2023 WAR to their projected WAR for the upcoming campaign. (Projected WAR totals are courtesy of FanGraphs Depth Charts, which are a combination of the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems, with expected playing time allocated by FanGraphs staff.)

Here are the players projected to make the biggest WAR gains this year.

1. , 1B, Blue Jays: +2.7 WAR
2023 WAR: 1 | Projected 2024 WAR: 3.7

Guerrero is still chasing the heights of his epic 2021 breakout season, which saw the slugger produce 48 homers, a 1.002 OPS, a 166 wRC+ and 6.3 WAR as a 22-year-old. After regressing in 2022, Guerrero took another step backward last year, recording 26 homers, a .788 OPS and a 118 wRC+ over 156 games. However, he could have a big season in store for 2024 -- FanGraphs Depth Charts projects him to rank among MLB’s 10 best hitters.

2. , SS, Twins: +2.5 WAR
2023 WAR: 1.1 | Projected 2024 WAR: 3.6

Battling plantar fasciitis in his left foot for much of the season, Correa posted a .230/.312/.399 slash with a 96 wRC+ over 135 games in 2023, the first year of a six-year, $200 million deal with the Twins. Still in his prime at 29 years old, it’s not hard to picture the shortstop finding better results if he experiences improved health in 2024. He was a 4.4-WAR player with a 140 wRC+ as recently as 2022.

3. , SP, Mets: +2.2 WAR
2023 WAR: -0.6 | Projected 2024 WAR: 1.6

After making only seven appearances combined due to injuries across 2019-21, Severino seemed close to getting his once promising career back on track when he tossed 102 innings with a 3.18 ERA and 112 strikeouts over 19 starts for the Yankees in ‘22. However, any positivity went out the window last year, as he dealt with two serious injuries (a right lat strain and a left oblique strain) and recorded a 6.65 ERA over 19 appearances. Severino’s days as a frontline starter are likely in the past, but the Mets signed him to a one-year, $13 million deal in free agency with the hope that he’ll be able to boost their rotation in 2024. The projections think he'll be a positive presence for his new club.

4. , SP, D-backs: +1.8 WAR
2023 WAR: 0.3 | Projected 2024 WAR: 2.1

An MLB Pipeline Top 100 prospect entering 2023, Pfaadt struggled in his first taste of the big leagues but turned things around after making some tweaks to his repertoire and moving his spot on the rubber. After registering a 4.22 ERA over his final 13 appearances in the regular season, Pfaadt gave Arizona a huge lift in the playoffs, serving as the team's No. 3 starter during its shocking run to the World Series. The 25-year-old recorded a 3.27 ERA with 26 K’s and five walks over 22 innings in the postseason, raising expectations for what he might be capable of in 2024.

5-T. , SP, Cardinals: +1.7 WAR
2023 WAR: 0.5 | Projected 2024 WAR: 2.2

Lynn’s ERA ballooned to a career-high 5.73 over 183 2/3 innings for the White Sox and Dodgers in 2023, as he surrendered an MLB-high 44 home runs (2.16 HR/9). However, the projections like the veteran’s chances of curtailing that issue in 2024. FanGraphs Depth Charts projects him to allow 26 homers over 175 innings (1.35 HR/9) with a 4.40 ERA for the Cardinals, who signed him to a one-year, $11 million deal in November. Lynn, who spent the first six seasons of his big league tenure with St. Louis, owns a 3.38 ERA in a Cards uniform and a 2.85 ERA with only 31 homers allowed over 484 career innings at Busch Stadium.

5-T. , SP, White Sox: +1.7 WAR
2023 WAR: -0.9 | Projected 2024 WAR: 0.8

Kopech is a former highly touted prospect, but he has yet to prove he has what it takes to excel as a big league starter. The right-hander is at a crossroads after finishing 2023 with a 5.43 ERA and the worst FIP (6.46) among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings. Although Kopech is at least expected to be on the positive side of the WAR ledger in 2024, the projections aren't overly optimistic -- FanGraphs Depth Charts forecasts a 5.02 ERA and a 5.19 FIP for the 27-year-old.

7-T. , DH, White Sox: +1.6 WAR
2023 WAR: 0.4 | Projected 2024 WAR: 2

Another former top prospect who hasn’t yet panned out for the White Sox, Jiménez could be nearing the end of his tenure on the South Side of Chicago. Dealing with a spate of injuries over the past three years, the right-handed slugger hasn’t reached the 20-homer plateau since he went deep 31 times as a rookie in 2019. He also ended 2023 with a mediocre 105 wRC+, which obviously isn’t what the White Sox need from a player who is essentially a full-time DH. Jiménez, though, may still have some untapped potential at the age of 27, with FanGraphs Depth Charts projecting him for 28 homers and a 120 wRC+ in 2024 -- the final guaranteed year on the six-year, $43 million contract he signed with the White Sox before his MLB debut.

7-T. , SP, Red Sox: +1.6 WAR
2023 WAR: 1 | Projected 2024 WAR: 2.6

Giolito’s performance cratered after he was traded from the White Sox to the Angels last July, spoiling what was shaping up to be a solid rebound season for the right-hander following a 4.90 ERA in 2022. Giolito, who spent only a month with the Halos before being claimed off waivers by the Guardians, pitched to a 6.96 ERA over his final 12 starts and finished the season with a 4.88 ERA, a 5.27 FIP and an AL-leading 41 homers allowed. After signing a free-agent deal with the Red Sox that gives him the ability to test free agency again if he declines his 2025 player option, Giolito will try to recapture the ace form he showed from '19-21 as he looks to improve his value.

7-T. , 1B, Mariners: +1.6 WAR
2023 WAR: 0.5 | Projected 2024 WAR: 2.1

France was an integral member of the Mariners’ lineup across 2021-22, hitting .283 with a 127 wRC+ and producing 5.4 WAR. He didn’t have the same level of success with the bat in 2023, however, posting a .250 batting average and a 104 wRC+. The first baseman is expected to provide more value in 2024, with FanGraphs Depth Charts forecasting a .267 average, 18 homers and a 114 wRC+.

7-T. , OF, D-backs: +1.6 WAR
2023 WAR: 0.5 | Projected 2024 WAR: 2.1

Thomas’ bat has been decidedly below average (72 wRC+) over his first two years in the Majors, but the speedy outfielder could be ready to make a leap in 2024. FanGraphs Depth Charts projects the 23-year-old for a 95 wRC+, which could be enough to make him at least a 2-WAR player when his value as a defender and baserunner are factored in.

7-T. , SP, Athletics: +1.6 WAR
2023 WAR: -0.3 | Projected 2024 WAR: 1.3

Stripling was hit hard in the first season of a two-year, $25 million deal with the Giants, posting a 5.36 ERA and a 5.21 FIP, which was a far cry from what he did with the Blue Jays (3.01 ERA, 3.11 FIP) one year prior. The right-hander didn’t exercise the opt-out clause in his contract earlier this offseason, but he won’t be back for another year with San Francisco after the club shipped him across the Bay in a trade with the A’s. He’s projected to rank second on Oakland in innings (142) with a 4.43 ERA and a 4.43 FIP in 2024, though his improvements could be even more profound if his new slider -- nicknamed the "Deathball" -- has the intended effect.