Inbox: Most impressive players in the AFL?

November 10th, 2021

I'm recently returned from two weeks at the Arizona Fall League, which I missed terribly when it went on hiatus in 2020 and thoroughly enjoyed this year. There are still 10 days remaining in the season, highlighted by the Fall Stars Game on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET. That contest will feature 52 of the developmental circuit's top talents and performers, and it will be broadcast live on MLB Network and simulcast on MLB.com and in the MLB app.

Name the 3 most impressive players and 3 players who didn't have the Arizona League season they were hoping for -- @ronb01

In my two weeks in Arizona, the best prospect I saw was Blue Jays catcher Gabriel Moreno, who hits for average and power and gets the job done behind the plate. The best hitting performance I witnessed came from Cubs outfielder Nelson Velazquez, who's threatening to lead the league in almost every hitting category and homered in four straight games I attended (more on him in a moment). The best pitcher was Pirates right-hander Roansy Contreras, who sat at 95-96 mph and missed bats with both his curveball and slider while recording five whiffs and four groundouts in three perfect innings.

On the other hand...

Dodgers third baseman Kody Hoese had a chance to rebound from a disappointing regular season, but he's hitting .171 with one extra-base hit (a double) in 12 games. Ballyhooed White Sox outfielder Yoelqui Cespedes has the second-worst OPS among official batting qualifiers at .499 (.186/.262/.237) with 19 strikeouts versus two walks. I saw Mariners right-hander Juan Then hitting 98 mph with his fastball and 90 mph with his slider while also getting a ton of horizontal action on his changeup, but he got rocked that day and has a 12.46 ERA with 29 baserunners allowed in 13 innings.

Nelson Velazquez is going to be 23 and still strikes out too much, but he's chewing up everybody in the AFL this year. How much has this improved his outlook? -- @sourbob

I don't put too much stock in AFL performance alone because it's a small sample size and the hitting talent always outshines the pitching talent by a wide margin. But Velazquez has made noticeable improvements in 2021, when he batted .270/.333/.496 with 20 homers and 17 steals in 103 games between High-A and Double-A before dominating in Arizona.

Velazquez has displayed impressive raw pop since Chicago took him in 2017's fifth round out of a Puerto Rico high school, and he started tapping into it more consistently after spending 2020 addressing his troubles with breaking balls. He's an aggressive runner with a strong arm who fits the profile in right field. He's arguably the best power prospect in the Cubs system and should get a chance to win a starting job at some point in 2022 or 2023.

Royals prospect Seuly Matias thought to have big time power. Does he have enough additional tools to make Royals 40 man roster? -- @APhiLionel

Matias does have big-time power. I still remember wandering the back fields in Surprise, Ariz., during Spring Training in 2016 and hearing an unusually loud crack of the bat during batting practice. I went to investigate and stumbled upon Matias hitting bomb after bomb -- at age 17 in his first spring in the United States after signing for $2.25 million out of the Dominican Republic. 

Matias has as much raw power and hits the ball as hard as anyone in the Fall League, where he ranks third in the league with six homers in 15 games. He also has a strong arm built for right field and average speed. 

But it will all come down to Matias' bat because he's a career .217 hitter with a 36 percent strikeout rate in the Minors. I'd guess that the Royals won't reserve him on their 40-man roster because it’s hard to imagine a team believing he's ready to hit Major League pitching. They didn't protect him in 2019 or 2020 and didn't lose him in the Rule 5 Draft either time.

How much has Logan O’Hoppe’s stock improved as a result of his performance in the AFL? -- @ThomasStickel57

O'Hoppe has helped his cause in the AFL, where he has looked like the third-best all-around catcher behind Moreno and Patrick Bailey (Giants). He's one of the better defensive catchers in the league and definitely will stay behind the plate, and he has the best OPS among backstops at .989 (.310/.455/.534). I saw a lot of Peoria Javelinas games during my time in Arizona, and it seemed like O'Hoppe reached base two or three times in each of them.

A 23rd-round pick from a New York high school in 2018, O'Hoppe turned down the chance to attend East Carolina to sign for an over-slot $215,000. He's a quality receiver with solid arm strength and he continues to improve at the plate, where he's a power-over-hit guy but improving his ability to make contact. The Phillies rave about his makeup as well.