Sleeper teams that could make a surprise splash this offseason
The Angels were all about those “Early Black Friday” deals this offseason.
Before we even reached Thanksgiving, they inked veteran starter Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $63 million contract, betting big on the improvements he showed with the Astros down the stretch. They also signed veteran right-handed starter Kyle Hendricks, catcher Travis d’Arnaud and infielder Kevin Newman, who will serve as their starting shortstop while Zach Neto recovers from offseason shoulder surgery. The Halos -- who have not reached the postseason since 2014 -- also acquired the power-hitting Jorge Soler, as well as infielder Scott Kingery.
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The expanded postseason format allows even teams like the Angels -- coming off the worst season in franchise history (63-99, a .389 winning percentage) and now (thanks to the Tigers’ 2024 surge) standing alone in having the longest active postseason drought in MLB -- to dream big.
So it will be interesting to see if any other clubs that finished far back in the playoff races will show similar aggression this offseason.
Here’s a look at other sub-.500 squads from 2024 that might make noise this winter.
Blue Jays (74-88)
Well, the Blue Jays don’t really qualify as a “sleeper” now that SNY’s Andy Martino and MLB Network Radio’s Jim Duquette both reported industry sentiment that Toronto could be the highest bidder for Juan Soto. But the Blue Jays DO qualify as a sub-.500 team from 2024 that is out to make a dent in this Hot Stove. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette both free agents after 2025 – and other important players, such as George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Daulton Varsho eligible after 2026 – the Blue Jays find themselves at the kind of juncture where you either retool or go all-in on the current core. Their involvement in the Soto Sweepstakes shows they remain more inclined to push than to punt. They have somewhere in the neighborhood of $40 million separating their projected payroll from the Competitive Balance Tax threshold. If they don’t land Soto, their approach to the tax would dictate how meaningfully they could pursue necessary upgrades in the rotation, lineup and bullpen. Bottom line: If the Blue Jays are going to keep Guerrero (and entice him to stay beyond 2025), they need to make some waves -- and Soto would obviously be a big one.
Nationals (71-91)
General manager Mike Rizzo has said “it’s time for us to add to the roster,” and he’s right. Though it didn’t show in the standings, the Nats’ youth movement did begin to net some positives in 2024, as core outfield prospects James Wood and Dylan Crews both reached the bigs, second baseman Luis García Jr. (a member of our All-Awardless Team!) broke out and pitchers MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz showed some blossoming signs. With Stephen Strasburg’s remaining salary and catcher Keibert Ruiz’s extension the only guaranteed deals on the books, Washington should have plenty of financial flexibility to address its offensive needs in a meaningful way. Maybe that doesn’t mean becoming the “Mystery Team” and bringing Soto back into the fold, but it could mean making a play for Pete Alonso or Alex Bregman or one of the other veteran corner infielders available.
Reds (77-85)
After falling just shy of October in 2023, the Reds made an earnest effort last offseason, only to fall on their faces with a fourth-place finish in the NL Central. But they wouldn’t have coaxed the 65-year-old Terry Francona out of retirement if they intended to retreat. They made a trade to improve their rotation by landing Brady Singer in exchange for Jonathan India, and they retained one of their best pitchers from 2024 when Nick Martinez accepted their qualifying offer. That leaves their vulnerable corner outfield situation -- and perhaps first base/DH -- as the most likely areas still to be meaningfully addressed. Not with Soto, of course, but perhaps someone like Tyler O’Neill, Michael Conforto or Max Kepler in the outfield or a veteran stabilizer like Paul Goldschmidt or Carlos Santana at first could be in play.
Rangers (78-84)
The Rangers followed up their franchise-first World Series title with a quiet 2023-24 offseason, and though their situation remains unclear they made their first significant move on Monday night by signing catcher Kyle Higashioka to a two-year deal. Bringing back the caliber of roster they possessed last year would take some heavy lifting, as starter Nathan Eovaldi and relievers Kirby Yates, José Leclerc, David Robertson and Andrew Chafin are all free agents. And should the front office be empowered to increase the payroll, we know it’s a front office capable of big swings.
Giants (80-82)
The Giants, now under new president of baseball operations Buster Posey (it’s still both strange and fun to type that) aren’t in the bidding for the big dogs, as they were in recent, well-publicized dalliances with Carlos Correa and Aaron Judge, among others. They already let Blake Snell walk to the rival Dodgers, and they will likely be careful not to go over the luxury tax threshold again. But that doesn’t mean the Giants, who extended Matt Chapman near season’s end, can’t land impact players in free agency or trades to upgrade what has been a disappointing club the last three seasons. Shortstop is a glaring need, and if Willy Adames is too rich for the Giants’ blood (especially with Draft pick compensation attached), then Ha-Seong Kim, with whom manager Bob Melvin is obviously familiar from his San Diego days, is a tantalizing possibility. The Giants also need starting help, and they would be an interesting destination for a short-term veteran such as Justin Verlander (who has already spent his entire career wearing some form of orange) or Max Scherzer.
A’s (69-93)
Playing their home games at the home park of the Triple-A Sacramento River Cats is not the best selling point for the A’s in any pitch to free agents. Indeed, there was a report earlier this offseason that Mark Kotsay told a crowd at the USC Sports Business Association Summit that free-agent starter Walker Buehler rebuffed the A’s advances because of the Sacramento situation. But the A’s do have payroll flexibility that, as evidenced by them even reaching out to Buehler, they intend to employ as they try to build off last season’s .500 showing in the second half. Pitching is their priority.
The other sub-.500 teams: Rays (80-82), Pirates (76-86), Marlins (62-100), Rockies (61-101), White Sox (41-121)
Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh both have payroll flexibility and young rotation arms to build around. The obvious challenge with the Rays is attracting players with their strange stadium and schedule setup, and the Pirates simply have not yet demonstrated a desire to significantly bump their payroll (though we’d sure love to see Paul Skenes’ squad get frisky here).