These 8 players could turn things around

May 6th, 2023

Every player would love to begin the season looking like they haven’t missed a beat following a long winter. Yet, obviously, not everyone can be Ronald Acuña Jr. or Gerrit Cole, who were recently lauded for their amazing April performances

But a cold April shouldn't stand as an omen for the year ahead. There are some players whose middling surface-level stats don't tell the full story. If you look under the hood, you will see reasons why these players can get on the right track -- and soon. Maybe they have been dogged by some bad baseball luck. Regardless, it won't last.

Here are eight slow-starting players who are due for some positive regression.

All stats are updated through Thursday's games.

, Pirates
Not only have the Pirates grabbed hold of first place in the NL Central largely without Oneil Cruz, but they have done it while Hayes has posted a .632 OPS and an uncharacteristic .225 average. His plate discipline remains fantastic, headlined by a 12.2% strikeout rate. It’s nearly impossible to sneak anything by him in the strike zone; his 95.9% zone contact rate is the best in the Majors. And when he makes contact, Hayes is likely putting good wood on the ball since his hard-hit rate rests in the 77th percentile. He owns an expected batting average of .285, and although expected stats are designed to be more descriptive than predictive, it’s safe to assume that Hayes will start seeing better results soon.

, Blue Jays
You can basically cut Springer’s season into two very uneven parts: Opening Day and everything afterward. He became just the 14th player since 1901 to record five hits on Opening Day. Since then, his 42 wRC+ ranks 173rd among 175 qualified hitters. So, yes, there’s really no place for him to go but up. But even as some of his batted-ball rates are languishing, his barrel rate is a healthy 10.0%, some of his contact rates are career highs, and his 115.9 mph homer on April 14 against the Rays was his hardest-hit ball during the Statcast Era, save for one. Springer’s bat still has plenty of life in his age-33 season.

, Astros
Springer’s former teammate is currently mired in a 3-for-29 slump. A .212/.336/.347 season slash line is not what we are used to from Bregman, and barring some unknown physical ailment, it’s fair to ascribe his slow start to a heaping helping of bad luck. Bregman’s batted-ball profile is very similar to last year when he posted a  136 wRC+ However, his BABIP is a mere .214, tied for seventh lowest in the big leagues. Bregman’s expected slugging percentage is 104 points higher than his current mark, and perhaps his dinger on Thursday will spark a hot streak.

Nestor Cortes, Yankees
Nasty Nestor is coming off of arguably his worst start in three seasons with the Yankees as the Rangers tagged him for three homers and seven runs in 4 2/3 innings on April 30. That drove his ERA up to 4.91. While his 23.6% chase rate is alarming, many of Cortes’ numbers are in the ballpark of his breakout campaign last year. That includes a solid 11.0% swinging strike rate and a 28.6% sweet spot rate which sits ninth among qualified pitchers. His xBA (.194) is tied for seventh, right behind Max Fried and Shane McClanahan. Don’t get spooked by one bad outing from this 2022 All-Star.

José Berríos, Blue Jays
You may see Berríos’ 5.29 ERA this year, then remember his dreadful ‘22 campaign and quickly figure not much has changed. But that would be shortsighted. The talented right-hander has been getting a lot of swing and miss this season while reducing his hard-hit rate to a four-year low. His whiff rate has cracked 30%, and if you combine called and swinging strikes, Berríos’ 31.5% rate is the 8th best in baseball, right between Clayton Kershaw and Sonny Gray. That’s not to say those three are equals. Just don’t judge Berríos too harshly based on his ERA, which is feeling the effects of two poor early season outings and a cellar-dwelling percentage of runners left on base (56.4%).

, D-backs
A top 20 prospect prior to last season according to MLB Pipeline, Thomas has scuffled to a 67 wRC+ through more than 500 plate appearances with Arizona. But there are signs that he’s starting to come into his own. His barrel (8.7%) and hard-hit (44.9%) rates have taken big leaps this season. He is pulling the ball much more this season (49.3%), which is good for his power potential. He still hits the ball on the ground too often, but the athletic 23-year-old has shaved off 8 percentage points in that category from last year. It’s a start. With plus speed and burgeoning extra-base thump, Thomas’ .248 wOBA isn’t indicative of his abilities.

, Mariners
Gilbert's top-line numbers are in better order after he threw six innings of two-run ball against the A's on Wednesday. However, they should continue to improve as the season chugs along simply because Gilbert is doing just about everything right this year. More ground balls? Yep, up to 48.9%. Less damaging contact? Gilbert's hard-hit and barrel rates have decreased this year. More strikeouts and fewer walks? Check. His 24.4% K-BB rate ranks ninth among qualified starting pitchers. Gilbert's expected ERA (2.86) and FIP (3.16) are each far in front of his 4.01 ERA. After a strong season last year, the 26-year-old is on his way to doing bigger things in 2023.

, Tigers
Torkelson has followed up his disappointing rookie season with a quiet opening act in 2023, slashing .206/.267/.308. That 70-grade power just hasn't shown up at the highest level. Yet. There are reasons to believe in the No. 1 overall Draft pick from three years ago. His barrel rate (8.2%) remains in good position, and he's upped his hard-hit percentage a few points to 44.7% while maintaining a hefty launch angle. Meanwhile, Torkelson's strikeout and whiff rates -- 20.8% and 21.9%, respectively -- have decreased to below the league average, hinting at an improved approach. With an expected slugging percentage of .427, Torkelson should warm up as summer arrives in Detroit.