5 key storylines to watch for in season's 2nd-to-last week

September 16th, 2024

The season’s final weeks are upon us.

With just over 10 games left for each team, we’re truly in the stretch run, where every game matters for playoff hopefuls and those teams fighting for specific playoff seedings. From the individual player side of things, there are several award chases that could be decided these next couple weeks. Whether it’s the battle for the AL East division or Shohei Ohtani’s quest for history, there is no shortage of exciting storylines to follow.

With this in mind, here’s a look at the highlights from this week’s schedule.

Ohtani’s quest for 50-50
LAD at MIA (Tue-Thurs); vs. COL (Fri-Sun)

If you’re a baseball fan, you’re likely following Ohtani’s chase for the first 50-homer, 50-steal season in MLB history. In his first season with the Dodgers after signing his record-breaking contract, Ohtani has dominated despite not making any contributions on the mound -- although there’s a possibility that he pitches in the playoffs.

Through 149 team games, Ohtani has 47 home runs and 48 stolen bases. His current trajectory has him on pace for 51 home runs and 52 stolen bases, meaning Ohtani wouldn’t just reach the 50-50 mark -- he’d clear it with room to spare. Ohtani could have fierce NL MVP competition from Francisco Lindor, but there’s a good shot that he’ll take home this third MVP award in the last four seasons.

Will Aaron Judge tie or break his own HR record?
NYY at SEA (Tue-Thurs); at OAK (Fri-Sun)

After a sluggish start to the season, Judge went bonkers for the better part of the summer and reached 50 home runs on Aug. 25. With a little over a month to go in the season, it looked like Judge could approach his AL record-setting 62 home runs he hit in 2022. After his 51st home run, however, Judge went on a 16-game homerless streak, the longest stretch of no home runs of his career. Even with a pair of home runs over the weekend against the Red Sox, Judge is on track to finish short of his record with 57 home runs.

What would Judge need to do to reach 62 home runs? With 12 games left, Judge would need nine home runs to reach 62 homers and 10 to exceed that mark. As dominant of a power threat as Judge is, the Yankees slugger only has one stretch of nine homers in 12 games in his career, which he did from July 21-30 in 2022. Of course, nothing seems impossible for Judge from a power perspective, but he’ll need to go on a career-best streak to reach 62.

Paul Skenes looks to further ROY case
PIT at STL (Mon-Thurs); at CIN (Fri-Sun)

Skenes’ rise from the first overall pick in the 2023 Draft to one of baseball’s top pitchers this season has been nothing short of incredible. Since debuting on May 11, Skenes boasts the top ERA (2.11) among qualified starters and is tied for third in FanGraphs' version of Wins Above Replacement (3.6), only trailing the likely Cy Young Award winners in Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal. Skenes’ blend of power stuff (32.3 percent strikeout rate), command (6.6 percent walk rate) and ability to induce weak contact (83rd percentile barrel rate) has immediately made him one of baseball’s most impressive pitchers.

Skenes will toe the rubber on Monday in St. Louis and could be lined up to pitch over the weekend in Cincinnati. What’s better than watching Skenes pitch once? Of course, it’s watching him pitch twice in the same week. There’s a chance the Pirates decide to shut Skenes down after Monday’s start, given that he’s thrown 147 1/3 innings between the Majors and Triple-A this season. If his season does end this week, it’ll complete one of the most impressive debut seasons in MLB history.

Mets host NL East foes amid Wild Card battle with Braves; How serious is Lindor's back issue?
NYM vs. WSH (Mon-Wed); vs. PHI (Thur-Sun)

On May 29, the Mets were 22-33, had just been swept by the Dodgers and lost eight of nine games and were six games back in the Wild Card standings. Since that point, the Mets have played like one of baseball’s top teams and caught the Braves for the third Wild Card spot. After their three-game series against the Nationals this week, the Mets’ final 10 games will come against the Phillies, Braves and Brewers.

Sparking this playoff push for the Mets has been an incredible season from Lindor. The Mets shortstop is putting together one of the best seasons of his likely Hall of Fame career. Lindor’s 7.4 fWAR is tops in the National League and is the second-best mark in his career behind the 7.8 fWAR he put up in 2018. Lindor, however, was removed from two separate games over the weekend with lower back soreness and will get an MRI on Monday.

Could the Tigers grab a Wild Card spot?
DET at KC (Mon-Wed); at BAL (Fri-Sun)

After their loss on Aug. 10, the Tigers were 55-63 and a whopping 10 games back of a Wild Card spot. In stunning fashion, the Tigers have turned their fortunes around, going an MLB-best 22-10 since Aug. 11, the best record in the Majors. Detroit now stands 2 1/2 games behind the Twins for the final Wild Card spot and a 9.9 percent chance of making the playoffs according to FanGraphs.

Even if the Tigers fall short, they’ve shown a ton of promise the last month and season-long performances from players who could help Detroit reach the playoffs next season for the first time since 2014. Between Tarik Skubal, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Reese Olson and a bevy of other interesting young players, the Tigers could be in play to win the AL Central soon.