We’re three months into the regular season and essentially at the halfway point. Given that half a season’s worth of games have been played, there’s a big enough sample to determine which teams might be legitimate contenders and how the playoff race could shake up. In the coming weeks will be the All-Star Game in Arlington, Texas, and -- shortly after that -- a Trade deadline that will impact the rest of the season. With this all in mind, here’s what the playoff matchups would look like if the season ended today.

All stats are through Thursday’s games.

American League

Byes: Guardians (1) and Orioles (2)

Wild Card Series matchups

Royals (6) at Mariners (3)

Twins (5) at Yankees (4)

Just missed: Red Sox (1/2 game out of WC spot), Astros (3 1/2 games)

The Guardians haven’t missed a beat since our last update when they held the top spot in the American League. Sparking Cleveland’s turnaround from a 76-win season last year has been an offense that has transformed from an offense with the fourth-fewest runs scored in 2023 to a unit that’s been one of the best this season. After having just one player finish with 20 home runs last year (José Ramírez, 24), they already have two this season in Ramírez and Josh Naylor. The Guardians’ top hitter, though, has been Steven Kwan, who is flirting with .400 and hitting for more power.

A brutal stretch of injuries to Orioles pitchers has dampened their short-term outlook a bit, as they’ve seen season-ending injuries to Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells since the last postseason update. Still, the Orioles have more than weathered the storm and lead the Majors with 428 runs scored and rank third with a 3.37 ERA, thanks to the excellence of players like Gunnar Henderson, Corbin Burnes, Adley Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez. By winning percentage, the Orioles (.630) have a narrow edge over the Yankees (.627) and have played two fewer games, thus giving them the edge in the AL East for now.

The Mariners have established themselves as the top team in the AL West and widened the gap between them from the Astros and Rangers. It’s been a similar recipe for success in Seattle for a Mariners team riding an elite pitching staff to compensate for a lackluster offense.

The Yankees have maintained their pace for 100-plus wins and a real shot at finishing with the best record in the league despite scuffling a bit recently -- they've lost four games in a row and nine of their last 11. This is still a team with the two-headed monster of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto and just welcomed Gerrit Cole back to the rotation, albeit with the right-hander just having one of the worst outings of his career against the Mets. Of note: based on how the current playoff matchups are, the Yankees would face a Twins team that they've thoroughly dominated in recent postseason history.

Winning the AL Central is increasingly unlikely but Minnesota is firmly in the mix for a Wild Card spot. The Twins offense has gotten hot in June, in part due to Royce Lewis' return from the injured list on June 4. The talented Twins hitter has a 1.045 OPS and nine home runs in 20 games since returning. The Twins also appeared to have avoided a major scare, when Carlos Correa only suffered a wrist contusion after getting hit by a pitch in Thursday's game.

The final Wild Card spot is currently a battle between the Red Sox and Royals, two teams on different trajectories of late. The Red Sox have won eight of their last 10 games and firmly put themselves in the mix after a decent start to the season. The Royals, meanwhile, have fallen off of late but thanks to their superb start, they should stay in the Wild Card discussion for most of the year.

Division Series matchups

Twins (5) or Yankees (4) at Guardians (1)

Royals (6) or Mariners (3) at Orioles (2)

The Guardians’ current .646 winning percentage would be the third-best single-season mark in franchise history and bodes well given how prior Cleveland teams have done with records this good. Of the five Cleveland teams with at least a .615 winning percentage, two have won the World Series (1920 and ‘48), two have lost in the Fall Classic (‘54 and ‘95) and the other lost in five games in the ALDS (‘17). While a different playoff format has made it more difficult for even the best teams to reach the World Series, history is on Cleveland’s side here.

The Yankees held first place in the AL East from May 14 to June 26, but the Orioles narrowly edge them for first place right now. Given the sheer talent of the Yankees and Orioles squads, it will likely be one of the closest divisional races for the remainder of the season.

National League

Byes: Phillies (1) and Dodgers (2)

Wild Card Series matchups

Cardinals (6) at Brewers (3)

Padres (5) at Braves (4)

Just missed: Mets (1 game out of WC spot), Pirates (2 games), D-backs (2 1/2 games)

The Phillies have nearly won twice as many games as they’ve lost and own the best record in the Majors, much like they did for the first two iterations of this exercise. A stellar pitching staff (first in ERA and WAR) and a top-five offense by runs scored have created an absolute nightmare for opposing teams. There could be some issues for the Phillies in the short term, however. Kyle Schwarber left Thursday's game with left groin tightness, while Bryce Harper appeared to hurt his left hamstring running out a game-ending groundout.

Even with a brutal stretch of injuries that saw stars Mookie Betts and Yoshinobu Yamamoto hit the injured list -- likely for an extended period for both players -- the Dodgers are still one of baseball’s top teams. The Dodgers lead the Majors with a +120 run differential, have the second-lowest ERA and are tied for fourth in runs.

With the rest of the NL Central sorting itself out for much of the year, the Brewers have been remarkably consistent and have grown their division lead to 6 1/2 games since our last update. It’s a top-10 team by both ERA and runs scored and a team that looks like a safe bet to secure the division for a second straight year.

Considering that the Braves lost their top hitter (Ronald Acuña Jr.) and pitcher (Spencer Strider) to season-ending injuries and have dealt with significant underperformance from several hitters, it’s a testament to Atlanta that it comfortably finds itself as the top NL Wild Card team. Winning the division seems like a stretch, but the Braves should find themselves playing playoff baseball for the seventh straight year.

The final two spots belong to the Padres and Cardinals, but there are half a dozen teams within striking distance of a Wild Card spot. The Rockies and Marlins are the only two NL teams that aren't within five games, meaning the Senior Circuit's Wild Card race could be one of the most fascinating in years.

Division Series matchups

Padres (5) or Braves (4) at Phillies (1)

Cardinals (6) or Brewers (3) at Dodgers (2)

The Phillies have held the best record in the Majors for most of the season, although the Guardians and Yankees have narrowed that gap. It’s been thirteen years since the Phillies led the National League in wins when the 2011 squad won a franchise-best 102 games. With a 2 1/2-game lead over the Dodgers for the top spot, the Phillies are in a good position to potentially have the NL's best record.

Winning the division and reaching the postseason hasn’t been an issue for the Dodgers, who have made the playoffs in 11 straight years and won the NL West in 10 of those seasons. With one of the biggest divisional leads in the Majors, the Dodgers are likely more concerned about what happens come playoff time and getting players like Betts, Yamamoto and Clayton Kershaw healthy.

Who’s out from last year?

Astros, Blue Jays, D-backs, Marlins, Rangers, Rays

The Astros are the one team to monitor after they've roared back from a 7-19 start to put themselves back in the playoff picture. Houston just reached the .500 mark for the first time on Wednesday and has a legitimate shot at both the AL West division and a Wild Card spot.

Who’s new this year?

Cardinals, Guardians, Mariners, Padres, Royals, Yankees

The Yankees, Guardians and Cardinals have been some of the most consistent playoff contenders over the last decade-plus and find themselves back in a playoff position after missing out last year. While the Cardinals find themselves in the crazy NL Wild Card mix and could miss out, the Yankees and Guardians look like locks to make the postseason.