If the postseason began today, these would be the matchups
As we enter the final month of the season, many of the divisional and playoff races have become clearer. There are, however, divisional battles in the AL East and Central that have razor-thin margins and could go in several directions in the next month. With this all in mind, here’s what the playoff matchups would look like if the season ended today.
All stats are through Friday’s games.
American League
Byes: Yankees (1) and Guardians (2)
Wild Card Series matchups
Twins (6) at Astros (3)
Royals (5) at Orioles (4)
The Yankees and Orioles have been neck and neck for the entire season, which is still very much the case. With the Yankees only holding a 1 1/2-game lead, the AL East could go either way by the end of the year. For now, the Yankees continue to ride the incredible seasons from Aaron Judge and Juan Soto as an unstoppable force in the middle of their order.
Cleveland has stumbled of late after beginning the season 52-30. Since July 1, the Guardians are 25-28 and an even worse 12-16 in August. Making matters even more difficult is that the Royals and Twins have played incredible baseball, making this a three-team race for the AL Central after it looked like a foregone conclusion that the Guardians would finish on top. The Royals are just 2 1/2 games back in the division, while the Twins are 3 1/2 games behind.
After beginning the season 7-19, the Astros have proven once again that they’re still the class of the AL West by going 66-43 since then and taking over first place. If Houston holds onto the division, it will mark the fifth straight year the Astros have won the AL West and the eighth time in the last nine years.
While the seeding of the AL playoff picture could very well change, there’s a good shot this group of six teams will remain the same. With the Red Sox stumbling lately, no team outside of the playoff picture is within three games of a Wild Card spot.
Division Series matchups
Royals (5) or Orioles (4) at Yankees (1)
Twins (6) or Astros (3) at Guardians (2)
There’s a solid chance that the top two teams in the American League could change by the end of the year. The Orioles and Yankees have been within a few games of each other most of the season and there’s no indication that it’ll change. The most notable change to this year’s playoff field -- as of right now -- is the inclusion of the Royals. After their peak years in 2014-15, the Royals finished at .500 in 2016 and below that figure every year until this season. Making the Royals’ season even more remarkable is the fact that they finished 56-106 last season and went 65-97 in 2022.
National League
Byes: Dodgers (1) and Phillies (2)
Wild Card Series matchups
Braves (6) at Brewers (3)
Padres (5) at D-backs (4)
Just missed: Mets (3 games out of WC spot)
The Dodgers and Phillies have been battling it out for the top spot most of the season. Despite facing plenty of injuries, the Dodgers have maintained an excellent pace that could put them on track for their fourth straight 100-win season. By welcoming back injured players like Mookie Betts and Max Muncy recently -- with Yoshinobu Yamamoto set to join them soon -- the Dodgers are getting healthy at the right time.
The Phillies were baseball’s clear-cut best team for a large chunk of the season but they’ve scuffled recently, going 24-27 since July 1. This is still one of baseball’s top teams, however, with talent on both sides of the ball and experience with deep playoff runs in recent years.
Milwaukee might have something to say about finishing with the best record in the NL. While the Brewers have come with less fanfare than the Dodgers and Phillies, the Brew Crew have consistently played great baseball this year. The Brewers and Phillies both have a 79-56 record but Philadelphia holds the tiebreaker advantage right now after sweeping Milwaukee earlier this year. If the Phillies take just one of three games in next month's series, they'll win the season series and have the advantage if both teams finish with the same record.
Two NL West teams find themselves with the top Wild Card spots in the D-backs and Padres. After starting the season 25-32, the D-backs have gone 51-27 since then and are 4 1/2 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. The Padres, too, have recovered from a tough 2023 season and are firmly in a playoff position. With Fernando Tatis Jr. set to return soon, San Diego will get a significant boost for the stretch run.
It’s been a drastic decline in performance for the Braves yet they find themselves comfortably in a Wild Card spot and on track for their seventh straight playoff appearance. Assuming they make it to October, the Braves could still be a force with a rotation headed by Chris Sale, Max Fried and Reynaldo López.
Division Series matchups
Padres (5) or D-backs (4) at Dodgers (1)
Braves (6) or Brewers (3) at Phillies (2)
It’s a three-team race for the top two spots in the National League, with the Phillies, Dodgers and Brewers only separated by two games. If the Phillies and Dodgers end the season with the same record, Philadelphia will hold the tiebreaker advantage after going 5-1 in the season series.
The NL Wild Card picture has stabilized and become clearer after a plethora of teams were bunched together during our last playoff update. The D-backs and Padres have started to separate themselves from the Braves, who are currently three games back of Arizona for the top spot.
Who’s out from last year?
Blue Jays, Marlins, Rangers, Rays
Eight of 12 teams from last year’s postseason are once again in position to play October baseball. The defending World Series-champion Rangers are the most notable team out of the playoff picture and have never truly gotten it going this season.
Who’s new this year?
Guardians, Padres, Royals, Yankees
The Yankees and Guardians both missed out on the postseason last year, but each won their respective divisions in 2022. The Royals might very well be the most surprising team in baseball and are not only looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 2015 but are also just 2 1/2 games behind the Guardians in the AL Central.