Parity in the playoffs? That’s nothing new

October 26th, 2023

The 2023 MLB postseason has been characterized by stunning upsets, with a trio of Wild Card teams reaching the League Championship Series, each defeating a 100-win team to get there.

The last of MLB’s six division champions was sent packing on Monday night, when the Rangers defeated the Astros in Game 7 of the ALCS to ensure an all-Wild Card World Series matchup between Texas and Arizona. The D-backs, who tied for the fewest wins among 2023 playoff teams (84), upset the 90-win Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in NLCS Game 7 on Tuesday night.

But while this year’s postseason may seem more unpredictable than ever, this is actually how things have worked for a long time. In fact, parity has been prevalent in the postseason throughout the Wild Card Era (since 1995) and even before that, dating back to the start of the Divisional Era in 1969, when the LCS was established.

Consider some of these facts and figures:

The team with the best regular season record rarely wins it all
For the past 50-plus years, posting MLB’s best regular-season record typically has not been a harbinger of postseason success.

This season marks the 29th campaign since the start of the Wild Card Era. In that time, the team with the best regular-season record won the World Series only seven times, a 24.1% success rate. They were the 1998 Yankees, the 2007 Red Sox (tied for best record), the 2009 Yankees, the 2013 Red Sox (tied for best record), the 2016 Cubs, the 2018 Red Sox and the 2020 Dodgers (shortened season).

The success rate prior to the Wild Card Era, when there were fewer playoff teams, was only slightly better. From the beginning of the Divisional Era in 1969 through 1993, the team with the best regular-season record won the World Series seven times in 25 years, a 28% success rate.

Meanwhile, there’s a long list of memorable playoff teams that went all the way to a championship after not posting MLB’s best record that season. The list includes the 1972-74 A’s, 1977 Yankees, 1979 Pirates, 1988 Dodgers, 1992-93 Blue Jays, 1997 Marlins, 2001 D-backs, 2004 Red Sox, 2011 Cardinals, 2019 Nationals and 2021 Braves, to name a few.

World Series matchups without 100-win teams are common
All three of this year’s 100-win teams -- the Braves, Orioles and Dodgers -- went down in the Division Series, ensuring another World Series with no 100-win clubs.

Atlanta, Baltimore and Los Angeles have plenty of company in recent baseball history. There have been 43 individual club seasons of 100 wins or more in the Wild Card Era, and only 11 reached the World Series. Six won it all: the 1998 Yankees, 2009 Yankees, 2016 Cubs, 2017 Astros, 2018 Red Sox and 2022 Astros. (There were multiple 100-win clubs in four of those six seasons, which undercuts the overall success rate a bit, considering only one team can win the World Series each year.)

Excluding the shortened 2020 season, this will be the 17th World Series matchup since 1995 in which neither participant won 100 games during the regular season.

Wild Cards have excelled in postseason before
Division winners still have a distinct advantage in the Wild Card Era -- of the 56 individual World Series participants from 1995-2022, 42 won their division that year. That doesn’t mean Wild Cards have been completely shut out, though. 

The Rangers’ ALCS victory over the Astros made Texas the 15th Wild Card team to reach the World Series since 1995, and the D-backs became the 16th a day later. 

One of those clubs is guaranteed to become the eighth Wild Card team to win a World Series, joining the 1997 Marlins, 2002 Angels, 2003 Marlins, 2004 Red Sox, 2011 Cardinals, 2014 Giants and 2019 Nationals.

This won’t be the first all-Wild Card World Series matchup
On two occasions prior to 2023, the World Series featured a matchup between two Wild Card teams. Both were among the most competitive Fall Classics in recent memory.

In 2002, the 99-win Angels squared off with the 95-win Giants in a seven-game thriller -- four of the seven games were decided by one run -- that saw the Halos prevail.

The Giants also made the World Series as a Wild Card team in 2014 and matched up against the Wild Card-winning Royals, who were making their first postseason appearance since 1985. With a big boost from Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco edged Kansas City in seven games to win its third championship in five years.