Here is what's at stake in September

Here is what's at stake in September

September 1st, 2024

As the calendar flips to September, the end of the regular season is rapidly drawing closer.

The last few weeks of the 2024 campaign are sure to bring plenty of excitement, with much left to be decided across MLB.

Here’s a breakdown of everything to watch for in the final calendar month, from postseason battles to award races to stat chases and more.

Playoff picture

While all three first-place clubs in the National League -- the Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers -- have leads of six games or more, there are some closer races brewing in the American League.

The Yankees are just 1 1/2 games ahead of the Orioles in the AL East. The two clubs have three games remaining against each other, from Sept. 24-26 in the Bronx.

The AL Central is shaping up to be a three-team race for first place as the Guardians try to hold off the Royals (2 1/2 games out) and the Twins (3 1/2 games out). The last time Cleveland didn’t have at least a share of first place at day's end was April 13.

After losing three of four to the Royals from Aug. 26-28, the Guardians will play Kansas City again in a three-game series that starts Monday, marking the final time the two teams are scheduled to meet this year. Cleveland and Minnesota have four more games against each other (Sept. 16-19).

The Mariners, who once led the AL West by 10 games, now sit five games behind the Astros, with three games left to play against them (Sept. 23-25). Houston is looking to notch its seventh division title and eighth postseason berth in the past eight years.

Baltimore, Kansas City and Minnesota currently hold the three AL Wild Card spots, with the Red Sox (3 1/2 out) and the Mariners (4 1/2 out) trying to make up ground.

In the NL, the Padres, D-backs and Braves are the three current Wild Card teams, though Atlanta is just two games ahead of the Mets in the race for the third NL Wild Card berth, with the Cubs four out.

MLB’s best (and worst) record

Parity has ruled this season. The Dodgers have MLB’s best record at 82-54, but the Phillies (80), Brewers (80), Yankees (79) and Orioles (78) all have at least 78 wins.

Barring a dominant final month from one of those clubs, this is poised to be the first season with no 100-win teams since 2014, when the Angels led the Majors with 98 wins.

On the other end of the spectrum, the White Sox are 14 losses away from 120, which would tie them with the 1962 expansion Mets for the most losses in a single season during the Modern Era (since 1900). Chicago needs to go 12-13 in its final 25 games to avoid that distinction.

Major award races

The Yankees’ and the Dodgers’ are the clear MVP frontrunners entering the final calendar month. This would be Judge’s second win and Ohtani’s third. Ohtani would also become the second player in history to win an MVP Award in both leagues, joining .

At this point, Royals shortstop appears to be the one player with any chance to leapfrog Judge, who is hitting .330 and leads MLB in homers (51), RBIs (123), walks (111) and OPS (1.184). The two are neck-and-neck in the race for MLB’s WAR lead, with Judge at 9.8 and Witt at 9.3 entering Saturday, per FanGraphs.

Ohtani has already become the fastest player in MLB history to join the 40/40 club and could be on his way toward the first-ever 50/50 season. He has an NL-leading .999 OPS to boot.

Mets shortstop actually had more fWAR than Ohtani prior to Saturday, 6.7 to 6.5, though he will likely need to lead the Mets to the postseason to have any shot at toppling Ohtani in the NL MVP voting.

Tigers left-hander could have his first career AL Cy Young Award in the bag. Skubal is pacing MLB in K’s (201), and his 2.51 ERA is 0.58 runs lower than the next-closest AL qualifier, Mariners right-hander (3.09 ERA).

There’s much more intrigue in the NL Cy Young Award race, which could come down to the wire between veterans and . Neither pitcher has won one, though both have come close. Sale finished third in the AL voting in 2014 and second in 2017, part of a streak of seven consecutive top-six finishes. Wheeler placed second in the NL race in 2021 and was sixth last year.

Sale could win the pitching Triple Crown in the NL, as he’s tied with the Padres’ for the league lead in strikeouts (197) while also leading in wins (15) and ERA (2.58). Wheeler, meanwhile, ranks second in the NL in ERA (2.63), wins (13) and opponents’ batting average (.196) and third in K’s (183).

If Sale can seal the deal, he'd be the Braves' first Cy Young winner since , and notched six Cy wins for Atlanta in a span of eight years from 1991-98.

The NL Rookie of the Year Award race is even closer, with Pirates phenom and the Padres’ dynamic center fielder engaged in an epic battle for first place.

Skenes, who started the All-Star Game for the NL, has recorded a 2.23 ERA with 136 strikeouts, 26 walks and just 78 hits allowed over 109 innings. Merrill has come up big all season long for the Padres and is hitting .290 with 20 homers, 16 steals and an .810 OPS.

There are several other NL challengers who would have had a strong case for the top spot in a typical season, including Cubs left-hander , Brewers outfielder , Cardinals shortstop and Giants shortstop . But with Skenes and Merrill in the picture, none of those players is likely to finish higher than third this year.

It’s a different story in the AL, where Orioles outfielder appears to be running away with the award. Cowser has produced 20 homers and a .770 OPS this season while providing excellent outfield defense.

Triple Crown watch

MLB hasn’t seen a batting Triple Crown winner since in 2012, but that could change in 2024.

Judge has a real possibility to win the AL Triple Crown, as he currently holds comfortable leads in homers and RBIs and sits 11 points behind Witt in the race for the AL batting title.

The NL has not one but two contenders in Ohtani and Braves designated hitter , each of whom is aiming to become the Senior Circuit’s first Triple Crown winner since in 1937.

Ohtani is seven homers ahead of Ozuna for the league lead and tied with the Braves slugger for first with 98 RBIs. Ozuna (second at .307) and Ohtani (fifth at .293) are both behind the Padres' (.309) in batting average.

Stat chases

As noted above, Judge has a number of categories well in hand, as he’s leading MLB in homers, RBIs and OPS by substantial margins, though he’s trailing Witt in the AL batting title race, .341 to .330.

Witt, who also leads MLB in runs (116) and hits (186), would be the first Royals player to win a batting title since in 1990.

Ohtani leads the NL in homers and OPS and is tied with Ozuna for first in RBIs.

Arraez has more hits (168) than any other NL player and a two-point lead over Ozuna in batting average as he pursues his third straight batting title and the first by a San Diego hitter since in 1997.

No one in either league is close to in stolen bases. The Reds shortstop has 61 steals, 18 more than the next-closest player, Ohtani. Five players in the AL have between 32 and 37 stolen bases, led by the Rays’ .

Milestones and historic feats

In addition to the Triple Crown, Judge has a shot at 63 homers, which would break his own AL record set in 2022. It's going to be tough, though, given he needs to hit 12 homers in the Yankees' final 26 games. If he gets to 60 again, he'd join (three times) and (twice) as the only players all time with more than one 60-homer season.

Ohtani, meanwhile, is six homers and seven steals away from MLB's first 50/50 season.

Dodgers southpaw would have had a chance at becoming the 20th member of the 3,000-strikeout club at some point in September, but he'll likely have to wait until next season after going on the 15-day IL on Saturday with a bone spur in his left big toe.

Kershaw, who is 32 K's away from the hallowed mark, would be the fifth pitcher to log 3,000 or more strikeouts with one franchise, joining (Senators), (Cardinals), (Phillies) and Smoltz (Braves).