Postseason Watch: Bracket, tiebreakers and more
The 2024 postseason is approaching. As you keep an eye on the standings, here is everything you need to know about how the playoff field is shaping up, as well as info about potential tiebreakers and clinch scenarios for each contender.
IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY
Here is a look at how the postseason field is shaping up, entering Monday. (Teams listed in order of seeding).
AL playoff teams: Yankees (AL East), Guardians (AL Central), Astros (AL West), Orioles (Wild Card), Twins (Wild Card), Royals (Wild Card)
NL playoff teams: Dodgers (NL West), Phillies (NL East), Brewers (NL Central), D-backs (Wild Card), Padres (Wild Card), Braves (Wild Card)
For a look at the full bracket, see the top of this page.
Each of the best-of-three Wild Card Series are set to begin on Oct. 1, while each of the best-of-five Division Series are set to begin on Oct. 5.
CONTENDER BREAKDOWN
Clinched postseason berth: None
Almost there (90% postseason odds or better): Yankees, Orioles, Guardians, Astros, Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, D-backs, Padres, Phillies, Twins
In good shape (50-89% postseason odds): Royals, Braves
In the mix (10-49% postseason odds): Red Sox, Mariners, Mets
Still alive (1-9%): Rays, Tigers, Cubs, Cardinals
Note: Odds are rounded to the nearest percent.
TIGHTEST RACES
AL East: Yankees lead Orioles by a half game
AL Central: Guardians lead Royals and Twins by 3.5 games
NL Wild Card: Braves lead Mets by 1 game
NL West: Dodgers lead Padres and D-backs by 5 games
AL Wild Card: Twins and Royals lead Red Sox by 4.5 games
3 KEY GAMES TODAY
Guardians at Royals, 4:10 p.m. ET | Get tickets
Dodgers at D-backs, 4:10 p.m. ET | Get tickets
Red Sox at Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET | Get tickets
TIEBREAKERS
Since 2022, all playoff tiebreakers have been determined mathematically, rather than via tiebreaker games. That means ties for division titles and postseason berths, as well as for seeding, come down first to head-to-head record between those teams during the season, with other tiebreakers available if needed.
Below, MLB.com is tracking the progress of relevant tiebreaker scenarios for contenders (defined here as within five games of a playoff spot).
AL EAST
Yankees
1st in AL East, a half game ahead of BAL in division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 99.8% (58.9% to win division)
- Win tiebreaker vs: Astros, Guardians, Twins
- Lose tiebreaker vs: N/A
- Tiebreaker TBD vs: Orioles (4-6, 3 games left), Royals (3-1, 3 games left)
If the AL East is still up for grabs by then, the Yankees would need to sweep the Orioles from Sept. 24-26 in the Bronx in order to win the season series and the tiebreaker for a division title.
Orioles
2nd in AL East, a half game behind NYY in division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 99.6% (41.1% to win division)
- Win tiebreaker vs: Royals
- Lose tiebreaker vs: Astros, Guardians
- Tiebreaker TBD vs: Yankees (6-4, 3 games left), Twins (3-0, 3 games left)
If the Orioles take one of the final three games against the Yankees and the two teams end the season with the same record, Baltimore would hold the tiebreaker advantage over New York. If the Orioles were to get swept in the final series against the Twins and end the season with the same record as Minnesota, the tiebreaker would be based on intradivision record.
AL CENTRAL
Guardians
1st in AL Central, 3.5 games ahead of KCR and MIN in division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 98.7% (67.0% to win division)
- Win tiebreaker vs: Orioles, Twins
- Lose tiebreaker vs: Royals, Yankees
- Tiebreaker TBD vs: Astros (1-2, 3 games left)
The Guardians hold important tiebreakers over the Orioles and Twins, yet would lose out in scenarios with the Royals and Yankees. Cleveland currently holds a four-game lead ahead of the Astros for the second AL seed but would need to take two of three games in the final series to guarantee the tiebreaker advantage.
Twins
2nd in AL Central, 3.5 games behind Guardians for division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 91.6% (21.9% to win division)
- Win tiebreaker vs: Astros, Royals
- Lose tiebreaker vs: Guardians
- Tiebreaker TBD vs: Orioles (0-3, 3 games remaining)
The Twins have an important tiebreaker advantage over the Royals, which could come into play for either a division or Wild Card spot. Minnesota, however, lost the season series against the Guardians and therefore lost the tiebreaker advantage.
Royals
3rd in AL Central, 3.5 games behind Guardians in division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 77.0% (11.1% to win division)
- Win tiebreaker vs: Guardians
- Lose tiebreaker vs: Orioles, Twins, Astros
- Tiebreaker TBD vs: Yankees (1-3, 3 games left)
The Royals arguably clinched their most important tiebreaker by taking the season series against the Guardians. If the two clubs end the season in a tie, Kansas City would have the edge for the division.
AL WEST
Astros
1st in AL West, 6 games ahead of SEA in division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 97.2% (95.5% to win division)
- Win tiebreaker vs: Orioles, Royals
- Lose tiebreaker vs: Twins, Mariners
- Tiebreaker TBD vs: Guardians (2-1, 3 games left)
The Astros have a six-game lead over the Mariners but if Seattle makes a strong comeback and the two teams end the season in a tie, Houston would lose the tiebreaker advantage for the division.
Mariners
2nd in AL West, 6 games behind HOU for division, 5.5 games behind KCR for Wild Card
FanGraphs playoff odds: 11.5% (4.5% to win division)
- Win tiebreaker vs: Astros
- Lose tiebreaker vs: Orioles, Red Sox, Guardians, Royals, Twins
The Mariners only hold one tiebreaker advantage but it's a big one against the Astros. If Seattle makes a strong comeback and ties Houston in the division, the Mariners would hold the tiebreaker advantage.
AL WILD CARD
Red Sox
3rd in AL East, 4.5 games behind KCR for Wild Card
FanGraphs playoff odds: 15.5% (0.0% to win division)
- Win tiebreaker vs: Royals
- Lose tiebreaker vs: Orioles, Guardians, Astros
- Tiebreaker TBD vs: Twins (1-2, 3 games remaining)
The Red Sox are still within striking distance of a playoff spot but they have some ground to make up and only hold one tiebreaker advantage over the Royals.
NL EAST
Phillies
1st in NL East, 7 games ahead of ATL in division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 99.7% (92.6% to win division)
- Win tiebreaker vs: Dodgers, Padres
- Lose tiebreaker vs: D-backs, Braves
- Tiebreaker TBD vs: Brewers (3-0, 3 games remaining), Cubs (2-1, 3 games remaining), Mets (4-2, 7 remaining)
The Phillies hold a critical tiebreaker advantage over the Dodgers and will clinch it against the Brewers if they win just one of three games in their series in September.
NL CENTRAL
Brewers
1st in NL Central, 9 games ahead of CHC in division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 99.7% (99.5% to win division)
- Win tiebreaker vs: Braves, Cubs
- Lose tiebreaker vs: Dodgers, Padres
- Tiebreaker TBD vs: Phillies (0-3, 3 remaining), Mets (3-0, 3 remaining), D-backs (0-0, 7 games remaining)
The Brewers are in a firm position to win one of the top two NL spots, but they lost the tiebreaker advantage against the Dodgers and will lose it against the Phillies if they drop any of their games in this month's three-game set.
NL WEST
Dodgers
1st in NL West, 5 games ahead of ARI in division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 100.0% (91.5% to win division)
- Win tiebreaker vs: Brewers, Mets
- Lose tiebreaker vs: Phillies, Padres
- Tiebreaker TBD vs: Braves (3-0, 4 games remaining), Cubs (1-2, 3 games remaining), D-backs (6-6, 1 game remaining)
The Dodgers hold a pivotal advantage over the Brewers but don't against the Phillies, meaning Philadelphia would have the advantage if the two teams end the season with the same record.
D-backs
2nd in NL West, 5 games behind LAD in division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 90.1% (3.1% to win division)
- Win tiebreaker vs: Cubs, Phillies
- Lose tiebreaker vs: Braves, Mets
- Tiebreaker TBD vs: Padres (5-5, 3 games remaining), Brewers (0-0, 7 games remaining), Dodgers (6-6, 1 game remaining)
The biggest tiebreaker scenario for the D-backs is against the Padres, which will be determined during this month's final series between the two teams.
Padres
3rd in NL West, 5 games behind LAD in division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 94.3% (5.5% to win division)
- Win tiebreaker vs: Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Brewers
- Lose tiebreaker vs: Mets, Phillies
- Tiebreaker TBD vs: D-backs (5-5, 3 games remaining)
San Diego holds important tiebreaker advantages over four teams but their biggest one will likely come against the D-backs, given how close they are in the race.
NL WILD CARD
Braves
2nd in NL East, 7 games behind PHI in division, 1 game ahead in Wild Card
FanGraphs playoff odds: 76.7% (3.3% to win division)
- Win tiebreaker vs: D-backs, Cubs
- Lose tiebreaker vs: Brewers, Padres
- Tiebreaker TBD vs: Mets (5-5, 3 games remaining)
The biggest tiebreaker to watch is against the Mets, over whom the Braves have a one-game advantage. The two teams are tied for the season series and have one final series that will determine who wins the tiebreaker.
Mets
3rd in NL East, 1 game behind ATL in Wild Card
FanGraphs playoff odds: 28.9% (1.0% to win division)
- Win tiebreaker vs: D-backs, Cubs, Padres
- Lose tiebreaker vs: Dodgers
- Tiebreaker TBD vs: Braves (5-5, 3 games remaining), Brewers (0-3, 3 games remaining), Phillies (2-4, 7 games remaining)
The Mets are still in the thick of the playoff race and hold important tiebreaker advantages over three teams also competing for a Wild Card spot.
Cubs
2nd in NL Central, 3 games behind ATL in Wild Card
FanGraphs playoff odds: 7.2 (0.4% to win division)
- Win tiebreaker vs: None
- Lose tiebreaker vs: D-backs, Braves, Brewers, Mets, Padres
- Tiebreaker TBD vs: Dodgers (2-1, 3 games remaining), Phillies (1-2, 3 games remaining)
The Cubs are barely hanging on in playoff contention and are at a further disadvantage by not holding a tiebreaker vs. any of the playoff teams.