Who's rising, who's falling in postseason race?

Who's rising, who's falling in postseason race?

August 20th, 2024

It’s been about a month since the All-Star break, and MLB’s postseason picture has undergone some noticeable changes in that time.

A number of pre-break contenders have faltered since the second half got underway, while other clubs have soared up the standings and put themselves in a solid position entering the stretch run.

Using FanGraphs’ playoff odds, here are the 10 teams -- the five biggest risers and the five biggest fallers -- whose postseason chances have changed the most since the All-Star break. (All stats below, including odds, are through Sunday.)

Biggest risers

1. Padres: +54.5 (39.4% to 93.9%)
The Padres entered the All-Star break with a 50-49 record, putting them among the long list of National League teams hovering around the .500 mark. San Diego, though, has found a different gear over the past month, posting MLB’s highest winning percentage (.769) with a 20-6 record since the break. The Friars are now the top NL Wild Card team and sit three games behind the first-place Dodgers in the NL West. San Diego’s bullpen has been especially impressive of late, bolstered by the trade acquisitions of and . Since the Trade Deadline on July 30, the club’s relief corps has recorded a 2.37 ERA (best in the NL) and a 31.9% strikeout rate (best in MLB).

2. D-backs: +47.7 (39.4% to 87.1%)
Much like the NL West-rival Padres, the D-backs went into the All-Star break only one game above .500 but have surged over the past month. Arizona’s red-hot offense (MLB-best 6.21 runs per game, .852 OPS) has carried the club to a 20-8 record in the second half, second only to San Diego in winning percentage (.714). Perhaps the most encouraging development for the club has been the resurgence of 2023 NL Rookie of the Year , who had three homers and a .613 OPS over his first 92 games this season but has gone deep 10 times with a 1.010 OPS over his past 29 games. The D-backs are going to need Carroll to keep it up after All-Star second baseman (11 homers, 1.173 OPS in the second half) went on the IL with a sprained left ankle on Monday.

3. Royals: +38.0 (34.1% to 72.1%)
Buoyed by superstar shortstop ’s remarkable performance (.449/.508/.832 slash line), Kansas City has gone 17-10 since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, a number of other American League playoff hopefuls -- including the Red Sox (.429), Mariners (.444) and Rangers (.379) -- have played sub-.500 ball in that span, contributing to the Royals’ substantial playoff-odds increase. The club entered Monday with a 3 1/2-game lead in the race for the third AL Wild Card spot.

4. Astros: +29.5 (56.9% to 86.4%)
The Astros at one point this season trailed the Mariners by 10 games in the AL West, but they cut their deficit down to one game by the All-Star break and have started to put some separation between themselves and Seattle as they pursue their eighth straight playoff appearance and seventh division title since 2017. FanGraphs gave Houston a 44.6% chance of reaching the playoffs after the club’s loss on Aug. 5, but the Astros have won 10 of their past 11 games and entered Monday with a four-game lead over the Mariners.

5. Brewers: +17.0 (82.1% to 99.0%)
The loss of to season-ending back surgery could prove problematic for the Brewers when the postseason rolls around, but they appear to have the NL Central title well in hand. Milwaukee has gone 17-10 since the All-Star break, increasing its division lead from 4 1/2 games to 11 games.

Biggest fallers

1. Cardinals: -36.4 (40.3% to 3.9%)
The Cards came out of the All-Star break in possession of an NL Wild Card spot with a 50-46 record, but their -38 run differential and 44-52 expected record cast some doubt on their ability to stick around in the playoff race. Despite swinging some big Trade Deadline deals, St. Louis has started to fade, going 8-15 in its past 23 games and tumbling to 61-63 overall with the fourth-worst run differential (-62) in the NL behind the Rockies, Marlins and Nationals.

2. Mariners: -33.4 (56.0% to 22.6%)
The Mariners had a 10-game lead in the AL West entering play on June 19, but they’ve posted the third-worst record (20-30) in baseball since that date and now sit four games behind the Astros and 5 1/2 games out in the race for the third AL Wild Card spot. Seattle augmented its listless lineup with the additions of and last month, but the club’s offense is still struggling, slashing .205/.313/.350 over 17 games since the Trade Deadline.

3. Mets: -21.7 (44.0% to 22.3%)
The Mets haven’t played poorly since the All-Star break (15-14, +16 run differential), but with the Padres and D-backs flying past them in the NL Wild Card standings, New York has a narrower path to a playoff berth than it did in mid-July. The Mets are only two games behind the Braves in the battle for the third NL Wild Card spot, but FanGraphs gives Atlanta a much better chance (80.8% playoff odds) of reaching the postseason.

4. Red Sox: -20.5 (53.0% to 32.5%)
Boston had a two-game lead over Kansas City for the third AL Wild Card spot at the All-Star break, but the club has gone 12-16 since that point and now sits 3 1/2 games out. Despite posting the game’s third-highest offensive scoring average (6.0 runs per game) during the second half, the Red Sox have been outscored by 19 runs in that span, as their pitching staff has surrendered an MLB-worst 6.68 runs per game.

5. Giants: -17.9 (26.0% to 8.1%)
With free-agent additions and starting to perform up to expectations and rookie giving the team a big boost, the Giants have played better since the All-Star break (16-13, +15 run differential) than they did before it (47-50, -27). However, San Francisco entered Monday with a four-game deficit in the NL Wild Card standings, which is actually one game worse than where the club stood at the end of the first half.