Could Roman Anthony take over as Red Sox top prospect?
It feels a bit odd to write a Pipeline Inbox without rankings looming. But the Draft is done and the new Top 100 Prospects list is complete, as are the organization Top 30s and our farm system evaluations. So let's get to your related questions...
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If Roman Anthony keeps up what he's doing at Triple-A, is there a world where he takes over as the Red Sox top prospect? -- @antman_92
Even before Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony got promoted to Triple-A, I considered flipping them in the top two spots on our Red Sox Top 30. The gap between them is closer than might be indicated by their rankings on the Top 100: Mayer is No. 5, Anthony No. 14.
Mayer's case is that he comes with a higher floor and offers more defensive value as a definite shortstop vs. a possible center fielder, but more likely corner outfielder in Anthony. Mayer makes more consistent contact and is a slightly better hitter.
But there's no doubt that Anthony comes with a higher ceiling. He has a full grade better raw power and foot speed, draws more walks and has reached the same level as Mayer despite being 17 months younger. Anthony also appears more durable with Mayer missing time in each of his three full pro seasons with wrist, back and shoulder ailments.
Mayer has yet to make his Triple-A debut because of a back injury, while Anthony has gone 12-for-36 with four extra-base hits in his first nine games with Worcester. If he maintains that performance for another month, he could pass Mayer when we update the Top 100 again in January.
How was Chandler Simpson left off the Top 100? How many plus and plus-plus tools does a guy need to make that list? He has a plus hit tool, gets on base at an elite level and leads the way with better-than-all-other speed. His OPS actually jumped from High-A to Double-A. I see Kenny Lofton here. -- @Mat_Germain_
A 2022 supplemental second-round pick by the Rays, Simpson is one of the more intriguing players in the Minors. While he was winning the NCAA Division I batting title (.434) at Georgia Tech during his Draft year, several scouts joked that he has 90-grade speed and 10-grade power on the 20-80 scouting scale. It really might be 100 speed and 0 power.
After tying for tops in the Minors with 94 steals in 109 attempts during his first full pro season in 2023, Simpson has a sizable lead with 86 swipes in 99 attempts this year. Despite blazing speed that allows him to turn some singles into doubles, he had an isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) entering play Thursday of just .047, which was the ninth worst among full-season qualifiers.
Simpson is also an elite contact hitter who ranks second in the Minors in hitting (.356) and entered Thursday tied for third in strikeout rate (8.5 percent). He has transitioned from college middle infielder to pro center fielder, where his quickness enables him to cover plenty of ground.
Lofton was a borderline Hall of Famer who hit 10-15 homers a year in his prime, and Simpson won't approach that kind of pop. I don't see Lofton so much as I see a better version of Myles Straw, with more contact but also a lower walk rate because Simpson puts the bat on the ball so easily. Straw won a batting title and stolen-base crown in the Minors and enjoyed some initial success in the Majors before his utter lack of power allowed defenses to shrink the field on him and reduce his effectiveness at the plate.
Simpson is a talented player with an extreme profile that doesn't fit the Top 100, in my opinion. But few prospects fascinate me more.
Which team's farm system do you believe has improved the most since last year? -- @StevieDAles97
Three farm systems improved by 10 spots or more from our midseason 2023 rankings to our recent midseason 2024 ratings. The Mariners moved from No. 19 to No. 9 and the Guardians jumped from No. 15 to No. 4, but both trail the Twins, who jumped from No. 17 to No. 2.
Minnesota's three best prospects a year ago were outfielder Walker Jenkins, infielder Brooks Lee and outfielder Emmanuel Rodriguez, and that remains true today. Second baseman/outfielder Luke Keaschall and right-handers Zebby Matthews and David Festa have joined them on the current Top 100, allowing the Twins to tie for first with six players on the list.
The organization's pitching looks much stronger now with the emergence of Matthews and Festa, not to mention fellow righties Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, Charlee Soto and C.J. Culpepper. Minnesota also acquired former Top 100 prospect Gabriel Gonzalez from the Mariners in January and had a strong Draft in July, led by shortstops Kaelen Culpepper and Kyle DeBarge, third baseman Billy Amick and left-hander Dasan Hill.
Even after signing a few draftees at the last minutes, the Brewers ran out of bonus pool money and still left six unsigned guys. Why would they select so many high school guys on Day 3 and waste more than one or two picks? -- Raymond K., Little Neck, N.Y.
The Brewers have been doing this since the Draft shrunk to 20 rounds in 2021. In the three Drafts before this one, they averaged three over-slot signings and 4.7 unsigned players on Day 3 (rounds 11-20). This year, they landed four over-slot guys and failed to sign five players in the second half of the Draft.
Milwaukee typically takes Day 3 fliers on several high school players and signs as many as it can. Third baseman Luke Adams, a 12th-rounder from 2022, is a borderline Top 100 prospect. Three late-rounders from 2023 are standing out: right-hander Bishop Letson (11th round) has one of the best arms in the system; second baseman Josh Adamczewski (15th) is slashing .322/.459/.486 in his first full pro season; and left-hander Justin Chambers (20th) yielded bullpen linchpin Bryan Hudson in a trade with the Dodgers.
The Brewers had more money to spend on late picks this year because they failed to sign supplemental second-rounder Chris Levonas despite offering him late first-round money. They saved $1,912,700 vs. their bonus pool with other deals and poured that cash into Michigan high school left-hander Joey Broughton (13th round, $535,000), Kentucky righty Travis Smith (15th round, $462,500), Florida prep righty Jayden Dubanewicz (16th round, $665,000) and New York high school righty Tyler Renz (18th round, $850,000).