When you look at this offseason’s free-agent class, there is perhaps only one player who would project as a clear, no-doubt, superstar moving forward. That would be Juan Soto, who has a consistent track record of big league excellence and just turned 26 years old. Those players simply don’t reach free agency very often.

That being said, there will be other free agents signed this winter who do produce at a superstar level, at least for a season or two. Chances are, those players will come from the tier just below Soto in this class: an ace like Corbin Burnes or Blake Snell (or, now, Roki Sasaki), a slugger like Pete Alonso or Anthony Santander or an all-around contributor like Willy Adames or Alex Bregman.

Buyers who can’t or won’t meet the prices for those sorts of players still have a chance to hit it big, however, by aiming for a free agent with bigger question marks but also a higher ceiling. These are players whose recent lack of health or consistent production figures to cut into what they can command on the open market -- but who still have the potential to deliver a season just as valuable as any non-Soto option available.

Below are five intriguing high-ceiling targets, each of whom also offers the benefit of having not received a qualifying offer, thereby freeing the team that signs him from the loss of any Draft picks.

(Because we are focusing on star-level potential here, we are omitting relief pitchers from consideration. With that said, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello recently dug into how right-hander Michael Soroka, despite an 0-10 record for the 2024 White Sox, could be a savvy investment this offseason.)

Shane Bieber, RHP

So much of free agency is timing, and if Bieber had reached that point after the 2022 season, he would have been considered an elite option. The Guardians righty had just thrown 200 innings with a 2.88 ERA, finishing seventh in AL Cy Young Award voting, two seasons after taking home that honor.

Alas, Bieber was not nearly as effective in 2023, when he missed most of the second half with right elbow inflammation. A promising beginning to his 2024 contract year (20 strikeouts over 12 scoreless innings) was halted by a torn UCL in that elbow, which necessitated Tommy John surgery. Just like that, Bieber entered free agency as a rehabbing pitcher with plenty to prove.

As such, it would make sense for Bieber -- who won’t turn 30 until May 31 -- to take a one- or two-year deal and look to reestablish himself. That presents a major opportunity for clubs to land a pitcher of that age and caliber on a short-term commitment. The downside is the increased risk: Perhaps Bieber will encounter a setback or have trouble recapturing his form. Still, the upside is enormous, especially considering the possibility that Bieber can get back to the bat-missing, K-compiling version of himself that he showed from 2019-22 and flashed again in ‘24.

Walker Buehler, RHP

Buehler’s 2024 season is an example of why some teams might be wary of assuming a pitcher will return from Tommy John surgery in more or less top form. Sometimes it happens -- and sometimes it doesn’t. For Buehler, it didn’t. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball from 2018-21 before going under the knife and missing nearly two calendar years before returning to the Dodgers this May. But obstacles remained for Buehler, who posted a 5.38 ERA over 16 erratic starts, showing a bit of improvement down the stretch, but not enough to foster much optimism.

If you were following the postseason, though, you know why Buehler is still on this list. The Dodgers, who included Buehler in their threadbare playoff rotation mostly out of desperation, were rewarded by the timely reappearance of a pitcher with plenty of October triumphs. After a tough NLDS outing against the Padres, Buehler tossed 10 scoreless innings with 13 strikeouts the rest of the way, helping the Dodgers win two games as a starter before closing out the World Series Game 5 clincher in dominant fashion.

That is an awfully small sample upon which to base a free-agent decision, to be sure. But given Buehler’s overall track record and age (30), there should be plenty of teams interested in giving him a one-year deal to prove that he can be an effective MLB starter again, or perhaps even a top-of-the-rotation arm. If Buehler’s late-October heroics were a sign that he had, belatedly, found his footing again after surgery, that deal could turn out to be lucrative for both sides.

Ha-Seong Kim, SS

Kim has two things working against his chances of landing one of the bigger contracts of this offseason. First and foremost, he sustained a torn labrum in his right shoulder in August, missed the rest of the season and underwent surgery that is expected to delay his 2025 debut past Opening Day. Second, Kim lacks the offensive firepower that traditionally drives earning potential. In four seasons with the Padres since arriving from the KBO, he has batted .242 and slugged .380.

The reason why Kim’s ceiling is so high, however, is that he is something like the polar opposite of a free agent like Alonso. Kim doesn’t mash like the Polar Bear, but he plays a premium position, provides stellar defense and runs the bases well. He is hardly inept with the bat, either, combining patience and contact ability with enough pop to launch double-digit homers.

Put that all together, and you have someone who produced like a top-20 position player in MLB across 2022-23, per Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR, not far behind Soto himself. Given the status of his shoulder, Kim could look for a short-term deal to reset his market. Even a longer-term pact likely would not approach what the power-hitting Adames lands in terms of total value, but it wouldn’t be shocking if, once healthy, Kim plays at a comparable level.

Tyler O'Neill, OF

For teams looking at O’Neill, the flaws are readily apparent. One, the injuries have been constant. O’Neill made three trips to the IL with the 2024 Red Sox after an offseason trade from St. Louis, but his 113 games still represented the second-highest total of his career. Two, there is a ton of swing and miss in his game, leading to sky-high whiff and strikeout rates. O’Neill’s style at the plate could be summed up as: Swing hard (90th percentile bat speed in 2024) and connect rarely (3rd percentile squared-up rate) but create damage when you do (98th percentile barrel rate on contact).

Inevitably, all of the factors above can lead to wild fluctuations in performance. O’Neill has been great at times (.912 OPS, 34 homers, 6.1 bWAR in 2021). Other times, he’s been barely playable (.715 OPS, nine homers, 0.3 bWAR in 72 games in 2023). Even last season, when O’Neill was productive overall, he was all over the place month to month (for example, a 1.127 OPS in March/April and a .545 OPS in May). All of that makes it hard to see a team ponying up for a huge commitment to a player who has been unable to get the job done on a consistent basis.

Still, we’ve seen O’Neill perform at an All-Star, MVP-candidate level, and there aren’t many free agents capable of topping 30 homers and a .500 SLG, as O’Neill did in 2024, even in less than 500 plate appearances. O’Neill’s next team will have to be willing to ride that roller coaster, but would it surprise anyone if that includes at least one huge season along the way?

Gleyber Torres, 2B

Soto aside, there are not many opportunities to land free agents who will be as young as 28 the following season and have a solid track record of big league success. Well, that’s Torres. At the same time, his 2024 was shaky, and he comes with enough question marks to likely limit his value significantly. Torres could take a short-term deal to try to boost his stock and still get another crack at free agency before turning 30. Or he could try to maximize his contract now, but even in that case, it’s hard to imagine him approaching what someone like Adames or Bregman would command.

Given Torres’ top-five prospect pedigree and early-career success (including a 38-homer season in 2019), it’s easy to feel disappointed that Torres' path to stardom stalled as it did. At the same time, Torres’ numbers in 2022-23 were plenty productive: .266/.330/.452 (116 OPS+) with 49 homers and 7 WAR. His 2024 started poorly, but Torres hit more or less at his typical level (.752 OPS) over his final 127 games, despite playing through a groin injury.

There are reasons to be skeptical of Torres’ ceiling at this point, considering his lack of speed and consistently subpar defense that might argue for a move to a corner spot before long. On the other hand, Torres has shown a lot of valuable skills, from plate discipline to contact to power. It hasn’t often coalesced all at once, although as recently as a year ago, Torres had an 85th-percentile expected wOBA, on par with the likes of Kyle Schwarber, Fernando Tatis Jr. and José Ramírez. Because of Torres’ relative youth, there should be teams looking to see if a few tweaks to his game could unlock some of that untapped potential.