Winter Meetings are over. But trade & free agency buzz is just beginning
DALLAS – This week’s Winter Meetings started off with a historic free-agent contract and ended with a trade the baseball world had been anticipating for months.
And there’s still plenty of action to come.
Juan Soto set the tone for this week’s happenings at the Hilton Anatole, signing a 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets – the largest contract in baseball history – that was officially announced on Wednesday.
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Max Fried scored the richest contract ever for a left-handed pitcher ($218 million), while Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Conforto, Blake Treinen and Alex Cobb also agreed to free-agent deals during the Meetings, taking some more notable names off the board.
There were a few interesting trades as well, none bigger than Wednesday’s deal that saw Garrett Crochet change his Sox from White to Red, as Boston sent four prospects to Chicago for the left-hander.
As the baseball world departs Dallas to return home in advance of the holiday season, there are still a number of free agents and trade candidates whose futures remain undecided, along with a host of teams that have work left to do before pitchers and catchers report to camps in two months.
Here’s a look at how this week’s developments could impact the market moving forward:
Mr. Burnes
Corbin Burnes was the top arm on the free-agent market when the offseason began, and while we’ve seen the likes of Fried, Eovaldi, Blake Snell, Yusei Kikuchi and Luis Severino sign contracts with new clubs, the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner remains available.
But for how long?
The Blue Jays and Giants remain the favorites to sign Burnes, who should ink a deal worth more than Fried’s $218 million. Multiple industry sources predicted that Burnes would sign for at least $245 million, matching or exceeding the guaranteed total Stephen Strasburg received at the Winter Meetings five years ago – a contract that remains the third-largest deal in history for a starting pitcher.
The Red Sox and Orioles remain in the mix for Burnes, as well, though the belief among rival executives is that those two clubs might not be as aggressive as Toronto and/or San Francisco.
Texas two-step
This week’s Meetings were held only 15 miles from Globe Life Field, where the Rangers will once again feature Eovaldi atop their starting rotation.
But it’s the team 225 miles to the south that could be making big news in the coming days.
The Astros have been fielding interest from multiple teams on All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker, who is one year away from free agency. Sources say it’s more likely than not that Tucker will be traded this winter, with some projecting a deal could come together rather quickly.
The Cubs are believed to be the favorites, with players including Isaac Paredes and Seiya Suzuki among the potential chips that could head back to Houston. The Astros are also interested in infield prospects Matt Shaw (Cubs No. 1) and Cam Smith (Cubs No. 7), giving Chicago a number of avenues to take in an attempt to land Tucker, an All-Star in each of the past three seasons.
The Yankees have also been in the mix, with players including reigning American League Rookie of the Year Luis Gil potentially headlining a package. But given the Yankees’ experience of trading for Juan Soto and losing him to free agency after one season, rival executives believe New York will explore other options to improve its lineup rather than risk such a scenario taking place again.
One of those options could be third baseman Alex Bregman, who has spent all nine seasons of his Major League career with the Astros. Sources said Wednesday that Bregman could be the next big name to come off the free-agent board, with the Phillies, Red Sox, Tigers and Yankees among the teams considered to be the biggest threats to pry him out of Houston.
MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reported earlier this week that the Astros made Bregman an offer of six years and about $156 million, though the two-time All-Star should land a deal bigger than the seven-year, $182 million contract Willy Adames signed with the Giants last week.
Tucker and Bregman have spent their entire careers with the Astros after being Top-5 selections in the Draft, but the pair may very well find themselves wearing new uniforms in the coming days.
Pinstriped plans
In the aftermath of Soto’s deal with the Mets, the Yankees addressed their rotation with the Fried deal, giving them seven starting pitchers under contract. The two youngest arms – and thus, cheapest and most controllable – are Gil and Clarke Schmidt, giving the Yankees an opportunity to include one in a trade.
The two trade candidates who make the most sense for the Yankees are Cody Bellinger of the Cubs and Nolan Arenado of the Cardinals, each of whom would fill an important pinstriped void.
Arenado could take over third base, allowing Jazz Chisholm Jr. to move back to second, where free agent Gleyber Torres has played for several years. Bellinger could play first base or left field, though sources say the Yankees view Bellinger as a better fit in left, where he would join Jasson Domínguez and Aaron Judge in the outfield.
Arenado has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and while the Yankees were not mentioned by MLB.com’s John Denton in his report about the six teams on Arenado’s wish list (Dodgers, Padres, Angels, Phillies, Mets and Red Sox), a source said the eight-time All-Star would likely approve a deal to the Yankees if such a trade were agreed upon.
The Yankees are also in the market for a first baseman, with Christian Walker among the top free-agent candidates. The bullpen will also be a focus, and a source tabbed Tanner Scott as New York’s top target.
Feeling free
Roughly a half-dozen names dominated the Meetings as mentioned above, with much of the lobby chatter dedicated to Soto, Burnes, Fried, Bregman, Tucker and Crochet since Sunday evening.
But a number of significant free agents remain on the market, and while they didn’t generate much buzz in Dallas, they all figure to see their markets begin to move soon enough.
Anthony Santander, Pete Alonso and Jack Flaherty – who, along with Burnes and Bregman, were all listed among the offseason’s Top 10 free agents by MLB.com – remain unsigned. Roki Sasaki, listed as the No. 3 free agent on that list, was also posted this week, officially opening his 45-day window to sign with a big league club.
That means six of the Top 10 free agents are still up for grabs, as are Tanner Scott, Teoscar Hernández, Walker, Jurickson Profar, Ha-Seong Kim, Carlos Estévez, Torres, Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
Swap shop
The Crochet deal marked the end of a saga that began last summer, but a number of other pitchers remain in play on the trade market.
According to sources, Luis Castillo (Mariners), Dylan Cease (Padres), Jesús Luzardo (Marlins) and Sonny Gray (Cardinals) are among the pitchers available for trade, while the Yankees could also look to move a starter as mentioned above.
Castillo is signed for $68.25 million over the next three years, with a vesting option for 2028 if he throws 180 innings during the 2027 season. The Mariners are loaded with starting pitching and need a bat, so moving Castillo and his salary could allow Seattle to pursue an impact hitter.
Cease is arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter before becoming a free agent next offseason. Luzardo is arbitration-eligible for two more years before becoming a free agent, though injuries have been an issue for him during his career.
Gray is set to make $25 million in 2025 and $35 million in 2026, with a $30 million club option for 2027, though he has a full no-trade clause, adding a wrinkle into any potential deal.