DFS picks: Max or deGrom? Ace or value?
Tuesday's full slate features plenty of enticing pitching options
Tuesday's pitching slate not only features the return of Jacob deGrom for the Mets, but it also includes a number of other aces in intriguing spots -- including Clayton Kershaw facing the Astros for the first time since the 2017 World Series.
Elsewhere, Max Scherzer and Corbin Burnes will be looking to continue their incredible starts, while Jack Flaherty is eyeing a ninth victory in as many trips to the mound.
But hey, if you're looking for some value plays for your fantasy lineups, there are plenty of those, too. From a trio of solid pitchers with ideal matchups to an ace looking to get back on track to a two-time Cy Young Award winner coming off throwing a no-hitter, there is no shortage of pitching options on Tuesday night.
Let's take a closer look at the 10 of the most appealing options (five aces and five value picks):
THE ACES
Max Scherzer, RHP, Nationals
The stat(s): 2.24 ERA, 35.7 K% (career high is 35.1%)
The matchup: vs. Reds
Breakdown: The key here is that this game is taking place at Nationals Park, as opposed to Cincinnati's hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. The Reds have the second-highest home OPS (.828) in the Majors, but that drops more than 150 points to .674 on the road. Scherzer has also allowed just one run while striking out 28 batters over 22 innings in his last three home starts. He's also on pace to turn in the best strikeout rate of his career, and he's been particularly dominant of late, going 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 38 strikeouts over 26 1/3 innings in four May starts.
Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets
The stat(s): 0.68 ERA, 46.1 K%
The matchup: vs. Rockies
Breakdown: It's always a bit of a risk rolling with a pitcher in his first start coming back from an injury, but if you're going to do it with anyone, deGrom is probably the guy. He hasn't allowed more than one earned run in any of his six starts and he's held the opposition to three hits or fewer in five of those games. Overall, he has a 0.68 ERA and a ridiculous 65 strikeouts in just 40 innings. With this game taking place at Citi Field -- and not the hitters' paradise that is Coors Field -- the only concern here is whether the Mets ease deGrom back into things and limit his workload in any fashion.
Corbin Burnes, RHP, Brewers
The stat(s): 1.29 xERA (best in MLB)
The matchup: vs. Padres
Breakdown: Burnes has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the big leagues this season. He's pitched between five innings and 6 1/3 innings in each of his seven starts, while allowing no more than two runs in all but one of those. He's also had at least nine strikeouts each time out. That includes a 10-strikeout effort over six scoreless innings against these Padres on April 20. San Diego's potent offense may scare some people off, especially with so many other ace-caliber options on the board, but Burnes has proven he can put up big numbers regardless of the opponent. In fact, his 1.29 xERA is the best in the bigs -- ahead of even deGrom (.163).
Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers
The stat(s): Opponents are hitting .178 with a 43% whiff rate vs. his breaking ball
The matchup: vs. Astros
Breakdown: Kershaw facing the Astros for the first time since the 2017 World Series will certainly be appointment viewing, but it may not be the best spot for fantasy purposes. Kerhsaw has a 5.50 ERA in four starts this month after posting a 2.09 ERA in six April outings, and things won't get any easier against a Houston team scoring an MLB-leading 5.3 runs per game.
Jack Flaherty, RHP, Cardinals
The stat(s): 8-0 with a 1.65 ERA in last 8 starts
The matchup: vs. White Sox
Breakdown: Anytime you can put your name alongside Bob Gibson in the record book, you're doing something right -- and that's exactly what Flaherty has done by going 8-0 in his first nine starts. They are the only two pitchers in Cardinals history to go 8-0 in their first nine starts of a season, and Flaherty has done so by reeling off eight straight victories after a rocky Opening Day performance in which he allowed six earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings. He's allowed only nine earned runs in 49 innings since, looking far more like the pitcher who finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2019 than the one who had a 4.91 ERA in '20. The White Sox, however, present by far his toughest test yet during this winning streak, as they rank in the top five in runs per game, average and on-base percentage. Flaherty's upside is also slightly limited by the fact that he's tallied more than seven strikeouts just once in nine starts this year, and he's yet to reach double-digits.
VALUE PICKS
Joe Musgrove, RHP, Padres
Matchup: vs. Brewers
Outside of a pair of rocky starts against the Giants earlier this month, Musgrove has been phenomenal on the mound this season. He enters with a 2.47 ERA (including a 1.10 ERA in seven starts against teams not from San Francisco) and has racked up 70 strikeouts over 51 innings. The right-hander is also in a great spot against a Brewers team that ranks in the bottom five in runs per game, average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Musgrove also racked up a career-high 13 strikeouts against Milwaukee when they met on April 19.
Cole Irvin, LHP, Athletics
Matchup: vs. Mariners
Irvin is coming off his worst outing of the year and has just six total strikeouts over his last three starts (a span of 17 2/3 innings). Those obviously aren't the most comforting numbers, but this play would be all about the matchup anyway. The Mariners rank last in the Majors in team average (.200) and on-base percentage (.279), while checking in at 28th in slugging percentage (.358). They also strike out at the fifth-highest rate in the big leagues.
Aaron Civale, RHP, Indians
Matchup: vs. Tigers
Again, this play would be as much about the matchup as anything else. That's not to say that Civale hasn't pitched well this season -- he's 6-1 with a 3.30 ERA and has gone at least seven innings in five of his nine starts -- but the Tigers strike out at a higher clip than any team in the Majors. They also rank 28th in runs per game and 27th in team OPS. Civale faced Detroit in each of his first two starts this season, going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 12 strikeouts over 14 2/3 innings in those outings.
Lucas Giolito, RHP, White Sox
Matchup: vs. Cardinals
Giolito hasn't had the type of season he was hoping for in many ways, but he showed exactly what he's capable of doing his last time out when he had a season-high 11 strikeouts over eight innings of one-run ball against the Twins. Giolito has allowed just one earned run in three of his past four outings, but there are a couple of concerns to be aware of in this one. Picking up the all-important win won't come easy in this one with Giolito pitching opposite Flaherty, and it's also worth noting that the Cardinals have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in the Majors.
Corey Kluber, RHP, Yankees
Matchup: vs. Blue Jays
It'd be harsh not to include a guy coming off a no-hitter, right? Kluber was brilliant against the Rangers on Wednesday, striking out nine and walking only one in his historic performance. That came just three starts after he struck out 10 over eight innings of two-hit ball against the Tigers on May 2 and Kluber has a 2.86 ERA overall in nine starts this season. Still, the Blue Jays present a bit more of a challenge for Kluber in this one, so temper your expectations if you try to piggyback off his no-hitter.