Major MLB awards candidates in each division entering 2024

With the Dodgers and Padres playing the two-game Seoul Series in South Korea on March 20 and 21, the 2024 MLB regular season will be upon us before we know it. (Full Opening Day action is set for March 28). So today, we continue our weekly series of season previews, breaking down major storylines from the perspective of all six divisions.

Last week: Teams with the most excited fanbases heading into 2024
Today: The likeliest award winners

Every player – and, really, every person – wants to be remembered long after they are gone. The best way to do this is win a World Series: You’ll be welcomed back with love to your city the rest of your life if you win one of those. But the other route to immortality is to win an award. Every baseball you sign from then on can have a little “MVP” or “RoY” next to it, forever. Your place in baseball history is secured.

Thus, as we look forward to this season, it’s worth looking at the best award candidates from every division. These are the players most likely to etch their names in the baseball annals for decades to come.

We’re sticking here to the four major Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) Awards -- MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year – and picking no more than one candidate per team. Some of these players have already won an award; some are just getting started. But they’re all candidates for immortality.

AL East

MVP -- Juan Soto, Yankees: There is no shortage of candidates in this division -- or on this team -- but you don’t have to squint to see Soto emerging from the (large) shadow of Aaron Judge to win this. He’s more likely to be healthy than Judge, he’s in a contract year and if the Yankees return to the playoffs, he’ll receive a lot of the credit. He has never won an MVP; this could be the year.

Cy Young -- Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays: Gausman had been in the big leagues for nearly a decade before he truly broke through, and he has now finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting for three straight seasons, including a third-place finish last year. In a division with several solid candidates -- including last year’s winner -- he may be in line to get some overdue recognition.

Rookie of the Year -- Jackson Holliday, Orioles: Is it possible that out of all the ridiculously talented young players on this roster, Holliday is the best? He may have the highest ceiling, which is an incredible thing to consider. The Orioles can build around a lot of players, but they may just build around him.

Manager of the Year -- Alex Cora, Red Sox: FanGraphs gave the Red Sox a 25 percent chance to reach the playoffs this year (as of Tuesday), which was lower than Red Sox fans would like but still quite reasonable and achievable. That’s just slightly lower than, say, the Reds. Suffice it to say, if the Red Sox do make the postseason, Cora, in the final year of his contract, will receive quite a bit of credit. Deservedly so.

AL Central

MVP -- José Ramírez, Guardians: Ramírez has been remarkably consistent in his career and has finished in the top 10 of MVP voting six times, with one second-place finish and two third-place finishes. He’s the signature star of a franchise but has never quite gotten his due nationally. (I’ve long argued he needs a nickname. A nickname would help.) If the Guardians surprise this year and he’s his usual terrific self, you could make a strong case for him.

Cy Young -- Pablo López, Twins: He was essentially a co-ace with Sonny Gray last year, but Gray is now in St. Louis, leaving López to shoulder more of the load for a team many consider the favorite in this division. He set a career high in innings last year and may just go up from there; if he can keep his pace for a whole season, he could improve upon last year’s seventh-place Cy finish.

Rookie of the Year -- Colt Keith, Tigers: This is pretty ambitious for a guy who has only 67 games above Double-A, but the Tigers’ willingness to secure him to a long-term contract before he has ever played a game in the bigs is a sign of their confidence. It’s also a sign that Keith is likely to be in the lineup on Opening Day, giving him every opportunity to establish himself.

Manager of the Year -- Matt Quatraro, Royals: This is a team that lost a whopping 106 games last year, but when you look at this roster right now … it sure doesn’t look like a team that’s going to lose nearly that many again. There are young players filtering throughout the roster, there have been pitching improvements, there is a commitment to Bobby Witt Jr. and there’s a general sense of things trending upward here. This division is extremely winnable. The Royals certainly aren’t the favorites. But it’s not insane to think they could make a run at it. And if they do, Quatraro will be an obvious candidate for this award.

AL West

MVP -- Julio Rodríguez, Mariners: There are plenty of candidates in this division, including Yordan Alvarez, who is due, and Mike Trout, who is … Mike Trout. But we saw last year what Julio was able to do for two months -- essentially carry his entire team and send a chill down the spines of every other team in the American League -- and he is well primed to do it for a whole year. Julio is one of those players for whom winning an MVP Award seems more like a matter of “how many” rather than “if.”

Cy Young -- Framber Valdez, Astros: With Justin Verlander expected to start the year on the injured list, perhaps it’s time for another Astros pitcher to take the mantle of Cy Young winner. Framber has finished in the top 10 of the voting in each of the past two seasons, and while he wasn’t quite as good in 2023 as he was in 2022, he was close. And he just turned 30: This feels like the dead center of his prime.

Rookie of the Year -- Evan Carter, Rangers: Teammate Wyatt Langford is another possibility, but Carter certainly got a head start on him in the big leagues, what with him being a key cog in a World Series-winning team and all. Carter already feels like he has been in the Majors for years; expect a lot of “wait, he’s still a rookie?” questions by September.

Manager of the Year -- Ron Washington, Angels: The Angels just lost Shohei Ohtani after a season in which they lost 89 games. How could they possibly be better? Well, having Mike Trout healthy for a full season would help a lot, as will their better-than-you-might-think pitching staff. It’s not inconceivable they could battle for one of the last Wild Card spots. If they do, the much-beloved-in-the-sport Washington could look like a miracle worker.

NL East

MVP -- Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves: Now that the knee-injury bullet has been dodged and it looks he'll be ready for Opening Day, the reigning MVP can go about defending his crown. Maybe he piles up fewer steals this year … but could there be more homers coming?

Cy Young -- Zack Wheeler, Phillies: Fresh off a contract extension, Wheeler looks locked in for a team that has serious World Series aspirations, largely because of what it’s counting on from him. If he has a year like 2021, when he threw a ton of innings and had an ERA under 3.00, this could be Wheeler’s year.

Rookie of the Year -- Max Meyer, Marlins: This one, to be fair, is a stretch: He’s coming off an injury, his only big league action was two games two years ago and he doesn’t even have a rotation spot locked down yet. But: A) Michael Baumann made a persuasive case for him at FanGraphs this week, and B) there aren’t a lot of obvious candidates in this division.

Manager of the Year -- Carlos Mendoza, Mets: Obviously, being the manager of the Mets is a tough job. But it’s much easier when there aren’t a lot of expectations on your team. There’s still a lot of talent on this roster, and if the Mets can cobble together something resembling a pitching staff (no given, of course), they could hang around in the Wild Card race longer than many might be expecting.

NL Central

MVP -- Nolan Arenado, Cardinals: This is a wobbly pick, I will grant, particularly after Arenado had maybe his worst season in a decade last year (and lost his streak of Gold Gloves). But there really aren’t a ton of candidates in this division -- unless you think Elly De La Cruz is ready to make a big leap -- and Arenado looks sharper and more determined after a rough season for him and his team. It sure feels like a guy like Arenado should have an MVP at some point in his career, no?

Cy Young -- Hunter Greene, Reds: This is surely a little too early for Greene, but then again, he’s 24, and we’ve all been talking about him as a Cy Young candidate someday. Why not soon? Even with some injury woes and a higher ERA in 2023, his strikeout rate was up and his stuff matches up with just about anybody’s in baseball. Get those innings up, get those walks down -- normal things to expect for a potential star of this caliber -- and you can kind of see it.

Rookie of the Year -- Shota Imanaga, Cubs: Well, if you are looking to make a grand first impression, singing “Go, Cubs, Go” at your opening press conference is a great way to do it. He also has looked more than ready to go this spring, striking out five in his first appearance, and at 30, he shouldn’t be rattled by anything he sees. He is The Throwing Philosopher, after all.

Manager of the Year -- Pat Murphy, Brewers: People are generally down on the Brewers this year, partly because they lost Corbin Burnes but largely because Craig Counsell left for a division rival. But that undersells the amount of talent the Brewers have on this roster, and it undersells Murphy, a baseball lifer who knows this team and doesn’t have to play the expectations game. FanGraphs gives the Brewers about a 34% chance to make the playoffs this year. That’s very reasonable, even if the popular consensus is that they shouldn’t be that high. The Braves’ Brian Snitker won Manager of the Year in a similar position in 2017. If the Brewers surprise, it’s Murphy’s year.

NL West

MVP -- Mookie Betts Dodgers: Sure, if Shohei were pitching, he’d be the favorite here, but he isn’t. So Betts is the obvious pick, particularly because you could have made a good argument that he should have won last year. He will also gain value by playing shortstop all year (or “permanently, for now,” in the words of manager Dave Roberts. Also, you know, he’s Mookie Betts.

Cy Young -- Zac Gallen, D-backs: He looked like the favorite for this award for much of last season but fell off a bit late in the year and wound up finishing third. Gallen is still the unquestioned ace for a team coming off a surprise run to the World Series, though. If Arizona makes another push for October, Gallen figures to be in the middle of it.

Rookie of the Year -- Jung Hoo Lee, Giants: The Giants have added a lot of pieces this offseason, but Lee looks like the one who might change the franchise the most. He’s the sort of speedy, contact-oriented player who fits perfectly in that ballpark and could be the spark plug for a team that could use one. He may be your favorite player before you realize it.

Manager of the Year -- Mike Shildt, Padres: If you were looking for a recipe for winning a Manager of the Year Award, you would:

A: Take away a team’s best player;
B: Take over a team that is nevertheless still packed with talent;
C: Have the disappointing previous season be a failure because of a mixture of luck and bad vibes.

Shildt has a tough job this year, and he’s in a tough division. But if the Padres are better this year -- and there’s every reason to think they will be -- Shildt, after last year’s disappointment in San Diego, will feel like a franchise savior.

The likeliest major awards winners of 2024 are ...