First base boasts last season’s National League MVP and the American League’s batting champion, not to mention two other former MVPs and one of baseball’s best prospects. And that’s just scratching the surface. Suffice it to say, if you’re looking for an offensive cornerstone for your fantasy lineup – and who isn’t? – first base is a great place to look. 

Here’s a deep dive into your options at first.

Tier 1: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman

Choosing between Guerrero and Freeman is going to come down to your personal philosophy – and what kind of league you’re in.

Here’s the bad news on Guerrero – the league knows him now. In 2022, he saw fewer fastballs and chased more pitches out of the zone, putting a dent in his barrel rate and on-base percentage. The good news is that he had a long way to fall after his truly absurd 2021 season, and as sophomore slumps go, his 2022 campaign was extremely productive (.274/.339/.480, 32 HR, 97 RBI, 132 OPS+). So even if that was a better reflection of his future production, you won’t be disappointed with him.

But you may prioritize greater predictability, and for that you could turn to Freeman. He led baseball in hits and doubles and led the NL in on-base percentage in 2022. None of that came as much of a surprise – he's been one of baseball's best hitters for 12 years. That said, his approach probably won't serve you if you’re looking for power. He had the second-highest expected batting average among qualifying hitters but just a 9.9% barrel rate. He's hit a combined .313/.400/.507 over the last two seasons, but in 318 games has hit 52 home runs, against the 80 Guerrero has combined for over the same period.

Tier 2: Pete Alonso, Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Olson

There's no mystery with Alonso. He's going to give you a ton of power. In fact, since 2019, no one has hit more home runs (146), and he’s averaged 43 homers per season, discounting the abbreviated 2020 campaign. That he led baseball with 131 RBIs last year is almost a footnote.

Goldschmidt, the reigning NL MVP, had a monster 2022 season in which he hit 35 home runs, had 115 RBIs, and led the league in slugging (.578), OPS (.981) and OPS+ (180). But 2023 will also be his age-35 season, which makes a repeat extremely unlikely. That being said, if you get anything in the ballpark of the hitter he was from 2019-21 – .280/.364/.491, combined OPS+ of 130 – you’ll be perfectly happy with having spent a pick on him.

Olson is as durable as they come – for the second time in his career, he played in all 162 games in 2022 – and while the steady progress he’d made in reducing his strikeouts was undone (he struck out a career-high 170 times), you have reason to be optimistic. His batted ball metrics, particularly his 92.9 mph avg. exit velocity (97th percentile) and 13.6% barrel rate (93rd), were as dazzling as ever.

Tier 3: Nathaniel Lowe, Vinnie Pasquantino, José Abreu, Rhys Hoskins, C.J. Cron, Christian Walker

Lowe is proof that first base is loaded – the AL’s reigning Silver Slugger at first base is all the way down in Tier 3. He tapped into something outstanding in 2022, hitting .302 with 27 home runs and an OPS+ of 141, making him an excellent and somewhat under-the-radar option.

Pasquantino achieved something special in his rookie season, abbreviated though it was – he walked (35 BB) more than he struck out (34 K). Add to that a cool .295 batting average and 10 home runs over 72 games and you’ve got a hitter with something to offer most fantasy GMs.

Though Abreu’s power dipped – he hit just 15 home runs in 157 games – his average recovered to a robust .304, better than his career average, and many of his underlying metrics indicate he has plenty more in the tank, most notably his 51.8% hard-hit rate.

Hoskins is an interesting case. His OBP dipped considerably in 2021 – that shift was accompanied by a rise in ground ball rate in 2022, which had a knock-on effect on his slugging percentage. Here’s the good news – even with all of those complications, he was still a definitively above-average hitter (122 OPS+) with 30 home runs.

With Cron, your mileage may vary – every year, a slightly different hitter shows up. In 2022, he struck out a good deal more (a career-high 164 times) and his OPS fell by 122 points. But never discount the Coors Field bonus, which Cron will benefit from for at least another season – despite the strikeouts, he still hit 29 home runs and topped 100 RBIs.

Walker nearly doubled his barrel rate from 2021-22, resulting in a career-high 36 home runs and a .484 expected SLG, which ranked in the 92nd percentile among Major Leaguers. As a bonus, his club is developing rapidly around him, so there’s upside for his RBI totals, if you’re more interested in traditional stats.

Tier 4: Anthony Rizzo, Ryan Mountcastle, Jose Miranda, Rowdy Tellez, Ty France, Josh Bell, Luis Arraez, Josh Naylor, Joey Meneses, Seth Brown, Triston Casas

A batting average in the ballpark of .230 appears to be Rizzo’s new normal, and we saw a moderate spike in strikeouts from him in 2022. But he also hit 32 HR in 130 games in 2022 and he’ll be spending 2023 in the best ballpark for a left-handed power hitter, so don’t sleep on his home run potential.

Mountcastle will chase, and he will strike out. But you may find that forgivable given the quality of the contact he does make – in 2022, he ranked in the 96th percentile in expected SLG and tied for the 6th-highest barrel rate among qualifying hitters.

The Twins’ long-term plans for Miranda may include a move back to third base, which would certainly boost his versatility in your fantasy lineup, and across 125 games in his rookie campaign, he posted a 116 OPS+ with 15 home runs and 66 RBIs.

Tellez, who is good for a lot of solid contact, hit 35 homers in 2022 despite suffering some bad luck along the way (his .461 SLG undershot his .479 xSLG.) 

France is great at getting his bat on the ball and has hit a combined .283 over the last two seasons, but while he hit 20 home runs in 2022, his low hard-hit rate and propensity for hitting ground balls is likely to limit his power potential.

In 2022, Bell set a great pace before his mid-season trade to the Padres, at which point he hit an extended skid, but the upshot was still a solid season in which he hit .266/.362/.422 with 17 homers and 71 RBIs.

Arraez, the AL’s reigning batting champ (.316), doesn’t make great contact but also consistently posts the league’s lowest whiff rates. If you’re looking for average at first but don’t want to spend an earlier pick on Freeman, Arraez makes for a great fallback option.

Naylor is likely to see more time in the outfield with the Guardians’ acquisition of Josh Bell, adding a bit of utility to his roster spot, and he slugged .452 in 2022 with 28 doubles and 20 homers.

It’s difficult to anticipate what the Nationals will get out of Meneses in his age-31 season. He significantly outperformed his expected stats in his first 56 big league games (most notably, he slugged .563 against an xSLG of .457), but he was also well above average in hard-hit rate (47.1%, compared to MLB’s 38.3%), suggesting he could still be an interesting sleeper pick, should you prioritize other positions early in your draft.

Brown, who also has outfield eligibility, hit 25 homers in 2022, but also racked up 146 strikeouts. While he whiffs a ton, his big swings can also yield great results – his 13% barrel rate last season ranked in the 90th percentile among Major Leaguers. 

Casas, having played just 27 games in the Majors, is the least-known entity on this list, but MLB’s No. 23 prospect (as ranked by MLB Pipeline) has outrageous power potential, a great eye, and command over first base in Boston.