Soto headlines loaded fantasy outfield rankings

March 26th, 2022

Let’s make one thing clear -- with the depth of the position, you can build a competitive fantasy outfield without spending big on elite options. But passing on the talent at the top isn’t an easy call.

Outfielders make up 11 of the first 29 players (including seven of the first 19) in MLB.com’s Top 800 fantasy rankings for 2022. These are some of the biggest names in the sport, and it’s going to be tempting to grab one or more of them in the early stages of your drafts.

Whether you opt to go that route or decide to wait to fill out your outfield corps, this tier-by-tier breakdown can help.

Tier 1: Juan Soto, Ronald Acuña Jr., Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Kyle Tucker, Luis Robert

With Acuña recovering from a torn ACL and Trout coming off a season in which he played just 36 games, Soto leads our outfield rankings. The Nationals superstar is on a Hall of Fame trajectory -- his career 160 OPS+ is the fourth highest any modern-era (since 1900) player has recorded through his age-22 season (min. 1,500 plate appearances), behind Ted Williams, Trout and Ty Cobb -- and he continues to get better. After the 2021 All-Star break, he hit .348 with 18 homers and a 1.164 OPS, including a Barry Bonds-esque .525 on-base percentage.

Although Acuña is not expected back until early May, his fantasy upside keeps him in the first-round conversation. The 24-year-old is followed by Harper, Betts and Trout, who have combined for six MVP Awards. Harper is the reigning National League MVP, winning the award after hitting .309/.429/.615 with 35 homers and 13 steals in 141 games.

Betts played through a nagging right hip injury last season, but he reported to spring camp saying the hip feels "great." Even with the injury, Betts finished with 23 homers, 10 steals, 93 runs scored and an .854 OPS in 122 games. His second-base eligibility (he started five games there in 2021) is a bonus.

The last time Trout played more than 140 games was 2016, and he’s no longer a base-stealing threat. But the 30-year-old looked as strong as ever at the plate before he hurt his calf last May, slashing .333/.466/.624 with eight homers in 146 plate appearances.

Closing out the first tier is a pair of ascending stars in Tucker and Robert, both of whom made major strides last season. The 25-year-old Tucker finished with 30 homers and 14 steals over 140 games, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected batting average and the 98th percentile in expected slugging percentage. Robert, 24, missed more than three months after tearing his right hip flexor, but he put up a .338 average with 13 homers and six steals in 68 games, while cutting his strikeout rate from 32.2% as a rookie to 20.6%.

Tier 2: Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, Starling Marte, Teoscar Hernández, Cedric Mullins, Tyler O'Neill, George Springer, Nick Castellanos, Eloy Jiménez

Limited to two games before undergoing season-ending surgery on both knees in 2020, Alvarez returned to produce 33 homers and 104 RBIs, score 92 runs and post an .877 OPS last year. He’s locked in as an early-round pick.

Judge has dealt with his share of injuries in the past, but he played 148 games last year and socked 39 dingers while posting a personal best in batting average (.287) and striking out at a career-low 25% clip.

Fantasy managers looking to load up on speed early in drafts would be wise to consider Marte, who now shares a city with Judge after signing with the Mets in December. The 33-year-old led MLB with 47 steals in 2021, reaching the 40-mark for the third time in his career.

Mullins and O’Neill will enter 2022 looking to validate their out-of-nowhere breakouts, much like Hernández did last season after taking a huge step forward during the shortened 2020 campaign. Mullins was the only player in the Majors last year to put up a 30/30 season, while O’Neill hit 34 homers, stole 15 bases and posted a .912 OPS, albeit with a 31.3% strikeout rate.

Springer could easily outperform this ranking if he avoids the injured list; he had 22 homers, 50 RBIs, 59 runs and a .907 OPS over 78 games in 2021, his first with the Blue Jays after signing a six-year, $150 million deal.

Castellanos’ decision to opt out of his contract with the Reds had the potential to negatively impact his fantasy value after he produced 23 homers, 72 RBIs and a 1.109 OPS in 69 games at Great American Ball Park last season. However, he ended up signing with the Phillies, another team with a hitter-friendly home park.

The combination of a delayed callup in 2019, the shortened campaign in 2020 and a ruptured left pectoral tendon in 2021 has limited Jiménez to 232 career games over three seasons, but he remains a potential 40-homer bat.

Tier 3: Randy Arozarena, Byron Buxton, J.D. Martinez, Kris Bryant, Giancarlo Stanton, Ketel Marte, Christian Yelich, Bryan Reynolds, Cody Bellinger, Mitch Haniger, Kyle Schwarber, Franmil Reyes, Jesse Winker, Seiya Suzuki

Arozarena leads off Tier 3 after following up his history-making performance in the 2020 postseason with an AL Rookie of the Year Award-winning season. The 27-year-old was one of 10 players to join the 20/20 club last year.

This tier also includes a handful of high-risk, high-reward players, arguably none more tantalizing than Buxton. The Twins outfielder has missed more than half of Minnesota’s games since the beginning of 2018, but he continues to entice fantasy managers with his skill set.

Over 61 games in 2021, he hit .306 with 19 homers, swiped nine bags and posted a 1.005 OPS.

Like Buxton, Stanton has a long history of injuries, but the Yankees slugger can carry fantasy lineups for weeks when he’s hot. He reached the 35-homer mark for the fifth time in his career last season, with 19 of them coming after the start of August.

No player in this tier hit more homers last season than Haniger, who returned from a lengthy absence to record 39 dingers, 100 RBIs and 110 runs scored. Only seven other big leaguers had at least 30 homers, 100 RBIs and 100 runs scored in 2021.

Then there are Yelich and Bellinger, the NL MVP Award winners in 2018 and 2019, respectively. It’s been a rough go for both players in the past two years, but it wasn’t long ago that each was going in the first round of fantasy drafts.

Tier 4: Austin Meadows, Trent Grisham, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Joey Gallo, Hunter Renfroe, Avisaíl García, Chris Taylor, Alex Verdugo, Daulton Varsho, Michael Conforto, Michael Brantley, Jarred Kelenic, Adolis García, Jorge Soler, Dylan Carlson, Marcell Ozuna, Ian Happ, Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall, Robbie Grossman

If you come out of the first eight to 10 rounds without filling out your starting outfield, you can bolster your group with one or more of the players in this tier.

Nine players in Tier 4 have at least one 30-homer season in the Majors -- Meadows (2019), Gallo (2017-18, 2021), Renfroe (2019, 2021), Conforto (2019), Adolis García (2021), Soler (2019), Ozuna (2017), Rosario (2019) and Duvall (2016-17, 2021).

There are also some useful multi-position players in this group, including Taylor (2B, 3B, SS, OF) and Varsho (C, OF). Varsho played more games in the outfield than any other position last season, but he’s most valuable to fantasy managers at catcher, where he could be a top 10 or even top five option. The 25-year-old will likely start regularly for the rebuilding D-backs in 2022, and he could deliver 15-plus homers and 10-plus steals.

The ultimate wild card in this tier is Kelenic, who slashed .151/.236/.272 in his first 259 plate appearances a year ago after coming to the Majors amid considerable hype. The 22-year-old found his groove in the season’s final month (.854 OPS), however, and he could be poised for a breakout in his sophomore campaign.