Mets-Brewers position-by-position breakdown
The Mets and Brewers will open their National League Wild Card Series on Tuesday night, less than 24 hours after their matchup was finally set.
Though Milwaukee cruised to a postseason spot down the stretch, it had its sights set on potentially earning a first-round bye up until the season’s final week. New York, meanwhile, was just trying to fight its way into the postseason -- which it managed to do in epic fashion on Monday afternoon in Atlanta.
The dust has barely settled on the Mets’ frantic push for a postseason spot, but it’s already time to dig into this enticing first-round showdown. It’s a balanced matchup on the surface, so let’s take a look at how these two teams compare position-by-position.
Catcher
William Contreras earned his first career All-Star starting nod earlier this summer, and then played even better in the second half. Milwaukee's catcher finished the season hitting .281 with 23 home runs, 92 RBIs, 99 runs and an .831 OPS. He followed up his All-Star nod with a blistering month of August in which he racked up nine homers, 23 RBIs and a 1.046 OPS in 28 games. Meanwhile, Francisco Alvarez has flashed plenty of pop and has played solid defense behind the plate for the Mets, but he posted just a .590 OPS in the second half this season (.844 OPS in first half).
Advantage: Brewers
First base
Rhys Hoskins is no stranger to big postseason moments -- and he's clearly no stranger to the Mets. He's also a solid hitter who hit 26 home runs in his debut season with the Brewers after missing all of last season due to a torn ACL that he sustained in Spring Training with the Phillies. That said, Pete Alonso put up a 34-homer season while playing all 162 games to help the Mets overcome a slow start. Alonso is averaging 42 homers and 110 RBIs per season over his five full big league seasons (excluding 2020).
Advantage: Mets
Second base
This was a tough call between Brice Turang and Jose Iglesias. Turang cooled off considerably after a hot start, hitting .220 with a .564 OPS in the second half after hitting .277 with a .731 OPS prior to the All-Star break. Still, he finished with 50 stolen bases and played excellent defense up the middle for Milwaukee. Iglesias, meanwhile, has been a sparkplug in New York, hitting .341 in limited playing time and providing the “OMG” mantra for the Mets. This one could go either way, but Turang’s speed and glove give him a slight edge.
Advantage: Brewers
Shortstop
Willy Adames had a big season for the Brewers, putting up 32 home runs, 112 RBIs and 21 stolen bases while playing 161 games -- but Francisco Lindor had an MVP-caliber campaign for the Mets. Lindor finished with 33 home runs (including the decisive two-run shot in Monday's wild win over Atlanta that sent the Mets to the playoffs), 29 stolen bases and 91 RBIs. And he did all that while playing elite defense, leading all shortstops with 16 Outs Above Average. Of course, it must be noted that a back issue sidelined Lindor for most of the final two weeks of the season – and it’s something he said he’ll be dealing with for however long the Mets play this year.
Advantage: Mets
Third base
Mark Vientos has enjoyed a breakout season for the Mets, clubbing 27 home runs and posting an .838 OPS over 110 games. Joey Ortiz has been solid for the Brewers, slashing .239/.329/.726 with 11 homers and 11 stolen bases, but Vientos' pop gives him the edge.
Advantage: Mets
Left field
For anyone who hasn't had a chance to watch Jackson Chourio during his breakout rookie season, make sure to check him out in the postseason. The 20-year-old turned in a 20-20 season in his debut campaign, hitting .275 with 21 homers and 22 stolen bases over 148 games. On the other side, Brandon Nimmo slugged 23 homers of his own and swiped 15 bases while racking up a career-best 90 RBIs. His veteran presence is big for the Mets, but Chourio's game-changing skill set gets the nod here.
Advantage: Brewers
Center field
It’s hard to separate any of the players who figure to get time in center field in this one – Harrison Bader and Tyrone Taylor for the Mets and Blake Perkins for the Brewers. They’re all very similar players, but the experience of Bader and Taylor (a former Brewer) tips the scales ever so slightly in New York’s favor.
Advantage: Mets
Right field
It remains to be seen if Sal Frelick will make the Wild Card Series roster for the Brewers, though he said on Monday that he's "good to go" -- a surprising development after he crashed into the wall hard on Friday against the Mets. He sustained a significant bone bruise in his left hip from the play and was on crutches until Sunday. Even if he is good to go, it's fair to question if he'll be at 100%. With that in mind, we'll go with 13-year veteran Starling Marte for this one. Though he's had a down season by his standards, he still swiped 16 bases this season and has come through in the clutch more than a few times. Plus, this will be his sixth postseason run.
Advantage: Mets
Designated hitter
J.D. Martinez is far from the 43-homer, 130-RBI hitter who helped the Red Sox win the 2018 World Series, but he still has the ability to change a game with one swing. A career .283 hitter with 331 home runs, Martinez not only helped Boston win the '18 World Series, but he's also been a part of postseason runs with the Tigers, D-backs and Dodgers. His experience alone is a huge asset for New York.
Advantage: Mets
Rotation
This was one of the harder categories to decide, and had the Mets needed to use Luis Severino in Monday’s doubleheader, the edge would have gone to the Brewers. But with New York clinching a spot by winning the first game against the Braves, that allowed the Mets to hold back Severino to start Game 1 opposite Freddy Peralta. New York can then roll out Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana (if necessary), both on full rest. Milwaukee figures to counter with Frankie Montas and Tobias Myers -- each of whom has had his struggles this season.
Advantage: Mets
Bullpen
Milwaukee has had arguably the best bullpen in the National League this season. The Brewers' relief corps leads the NL with a 3.11 ERA that trails only the Guardians (2.57) across the Majors -- and that's despite Devin Williams missing the first four months of the season. Williams has returned as good as ever, notching 14 saves and a 1.25 ERA over 22 appearances down the stretch. Couple that with Trevor Megill (2.72 ERA), Jared Koenig (2.47), Elvis Peguero (2.98), Bryan Hudson (1.73) and Joel Payamps (3.05), and Milwaukee has no shortage of high-leverage arms who can shorten a game in a hurry.
Advantage: Brewers
Prediction
There’s not an outcome in this series that would be surprising. The Brewers could sweep a Mets team that just played two games on Monday and has been fighting to keep its season alive for months, all while battling a key injury to Lindor down the stretch. But with New York finding a way to rally for an incredible win in the first game of Monday’s doubleheader, and thus save Severino to line up its rotation – that could prove to be the difference. This Mets team has essentially been playing postseason baseball for weeks, and that will ultimately play into their favor in this one.
Mets in three