Why heaters are causing Olson's cold bat

August 23rd, 2024

This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ATLANTA -- Can end a frustration-filled season by finally catching fire just in time to help the Braves reach the postseason?

“There’s no doubt it can happen,” Atlanta hitting coach Kevin Seitzer said. “Every night, I’ve been waiting for it to just click. We’ve all seen how hot he can get when he gets hot.”

Olson constructed one of the finest seasons in club history last year, when he set Atlanta Braves records for both home runs (54) and RBIs (139). It might have been a lot to expect him to produce another season like that. But a second straight monster season might have seemed more likely than the disappointing one he has constructed thus far.

Olson entered play Friday hitting .227 with 21 homers, a .727 OPS and a 27.1 strikeout percentage. His 101 OPS+ indicates his production is one percent better than league average.

What has changed since Olson produced a .993 OPS and 164 OPS+ (64 percent better than league average) last year? Well, he has struggled against most pitches, but the fastball seems to have been the biggest problem thus far.

Four-seam fastballs account for 38.5 percent of the pitches Olson has seen this year. He hasn’t seen any other pitches more than 13.1 percent of the time. Per Statcast, he has produced a -1 run value against four-seamers. He produced a +23 run value against this same pitch last year.

“I can't tell you how much video analysis and breakdown we've done,” Seitzer said. “He has done everything in his power to try and make it happen there in the batter’s box. He does a really good job in the cage, and then once the adrenaline starts going, he’s getting too far back, his hands are getting stuck and he’s late. It’s been a grind for him all year.”

What kind of mechanical changes have been made?

“His lower half can get out of whack,” Seitzer said. “But the biggest battle he’s had has been his hand going too far and getting too wrapped and then getting barred out when he tries to fire. Last year, everything was looser and more flexed.”

Olson hit seven homers and constructed a 1.045 OPS over 14 games from July 27-Aug. 10. In his next 11 games, however, he had just one homer and a .644 OPS.

“All hitters go through stretches where they can't catch up to the fastball,” Seitzer said. “Then they start cheating, then they start chasing secondary stuff. Having to cheat to hit a fastball is a scary place to be, because you're going to swing at more balls than strikes, when that happens.”

Olson’s chase percentage has risen from 26 percent last year to 28.8 percent this year. He had a similar chase rate (28.5 percent) for the Braves in 2022, when he hit 34 homers and generated a .802 OPS.

“He’s the same guy he was last year,” Seitzer said. “It’s just getting the mechanics locked in to where they were last year. It could happen in a minute. I’m waiting for that minute.”