With the 2023 season behind us and the Hot Stove already burning, we're taking a close look at some of the most prominent players on the free-agent market.

Name: Matt Chapman
Position: 3B
Team: Toronto Blue Jays
Age (as of Opening Day 2024): 30
2023 stats: .240/.330/.424, 17 HR, 54 RBIs, 66 R, 108 OPS+

One month into the 2023 season, Chapman looked like he was headed for the best season of his career. With a pair of top-7 finishes in American League Most Valuable Player voting in each of his first two full seasons, Chapman was so hot in the opening weeks -- he had a 1.152 OPS with five homers and 21 RBIs in his first 27 games -- that some were speculating he might put himself in position to win that honor.

Chapman’s offense dipped after his red-hot April, though he finished the first half with 28 doubles, 12 home runs, 39 RBIs and an .807 OPS in 88 games. Those numbers fell further in the second half, as Chapman hit five homers with 15 RBIs and a .663 OPS in his final 52 games after the All-Star break.

The final offensive numbers weren’t impressive, but Chapman won his fourth Gold Glove as he hit the free-agent market as the best third baseman available this offseason. A deeper dive into Chapman’s numbers show that his lack of offensive success as the season went on had nothing to do with the contact he made, as he ranked in the 100th percentile in hard-hit percentage and the 98th in both barrel percentage and average exit velocity.

POTENTIAL SUITORS (listed alphabetically)

BLUE JAYS
Chapman reportedly turned down an extension offer from Toronto earlier this year, but the Blue Jays are hoping to bring him back on a new deal this winter. Whether Chapman’s market winds up exceeding a number Toronto is comfortable with could decide how aggressively the club tries to re-sign him. The Jays have plenty of infield depth in the organization, though none that jump out as a Chapman replacement. If Chapman’s price tag proves to be too high, Toronto could look at other free agents such as Jeimer Candelario or Gio Urshela.

CUBS
The Cubs addressed their third-base need at last summer’s Trade Deadline with the acquisition of Candelario, but he is now a free agent. Chicago has some internal options at the position (Nick Madrigal, Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom), but Chapman would represent an upgrade over their choices.

GIANTS
The Giants' brass is quite familiar with Chapman, as Farhan Zaidi was part of the Athletics’ front office that selected Chapman in the first round of the 2014 Draft while manager Bob Melvin was his skipper in Oakland for the first five seasons of the third baseman’s career. San Francisco currently has J.D. Davis atop its depth chart at third base, and while he was solid defensively, Chapman would represent an upgrade at the hot corner.

MARINERS
The Mariners suddenly find themselves with a potential vacancy at third base after trading Eugenio Suárez to the D-backs, leaving Luis Urías atop the depth chart. As good as Suárez was defensively, Chapman is even better, an important factor with Seattle’s young pitching staff. The fact that he hits from the right side makes him a strong fit for the Mariners’ lineup -- one of the reasons Seattle tried to trade for Chapman two offseasons ago.

METS
Third base was a black hole for the Mets in 2023, as eight players combined for a .590 OPS (last in the NL) and -9 outs above average (next-to-last). Youngsters Brett Baty and Mark Vientos could get another shot (as could Ronny Mauricio, the team’s No. 4 prospect), but the Mets could also turn to the free-agent market and give Chapman -- whose 3.5 fWAR was miles ahead of the Mets’ cumulative -2.6 fWAR at third base last season -- a look.

TIGERS
Detroit’s third basemen combined for a .624 OPS in 2023, the second-worst mark in the AL; the two players with the most plate appearances at the position were Nick Maton (.558 OPS in 158 PA) and Zach McKinstry (.589 OPS in 130 PA). Even worse, the Tigers’ -18 outs above average ranked last in the Majors, making the fit for the Gold Glove-winning Chapman an obvious one.

YANKEES
DJ LeMahieu is currently penciled in as the Yankees’ third baseman, though the veteran may be better-suited in a super-utility role. Second-year infielder Oswald Peraza could also see time at the hot corner, though the Yankees could view Chapman as a significant upgrade after their third basemen combined for a .655 OPS, the fourth-worst mark in the AL.

SCOUT’S TAKE
“Chapman is an All-Star caliber player at a position that is not easy to profile given the defensive and offensive demands. Once regarded as a potential superstar, he was slowed a bit by the injury bug in past seasons. At the dish, he brings the combination of elite exit velocity, all-field power, as well as strike zone discipline. Very few guys hit the ball harder than he does, but the overall production is dampened by a lack of consistent contact. When he is finding the barrel, he can carry an offense.

“The question is whether he can lessen those long stretches of swing-and-miss. With the glove, he has everything you want at the hot corner: excellent hands, arm strength, and range. He has extremely quick glove-to-hand transfers and an uncanny ability to throw accurately on the move. Also, he’s an underappreciated baserunner; he runs well and can take the extra base. Going into his age-31 season, he is the type of player you just plug and play.”

BUYER BEWARE
Chapman displays great control of the strike zone, ranking in the 94th percentile in the league when it came to chase percentage in 2023. But that didn’t help him with regard to striking out, as he ranked in the 18th percentile in whiff percentage and the 16th percentile in strikeout percentage. Chapman’s 165 strikeouts marked the third straight season he has punched out at least that many times, totaling 537 K's since the start of 2021, striking out in 29.4% of his at-bats during that three-year stretch.

FOR COMP'S SAKE
The five biggest contracts ever signed by a third baseman -- Manny Machado (twice), Rafael Devers, Nolan Arenado and Anthony Rendon -- were worth between $245 million and $350 million, a level Chapman won’t come close to this winter. The comp that feels right here is Josh Donaldson, who had a .275/.367/.507 slash line with 182 home runs and 551 RBIs through his first 883 games (2010-18) compared to a .240/.329/.461 slash line, 155 home runs and 426 RBIs for Chapman through 868 career games.

Donaldson signed a one-year, $23 million deal with the Braves after battling injuries in 2017-18. He posted a strong year with Atlanta in 2019, then inked a four-year, $92 million deal with the Twins prior to the 2020 campaign. Donaldson had an MVP award and three All-Star appearances on his résumé, while Chapman has one All-Star selection and four Gold Glove awards.