Soto, Sasaki, trades and more! Feinsand fields questions in Reddit AMA

November 12th, 2024

Hot Stove season is in full swing, which means senior national reporter Mark Feinsand is working his sources, loading up on coffee … and answering fan questions on the latest Reddit AMA session.

Here are some of the best questions and answers from Tuesday's lively chat.

Some questions and answers have been edited for clarity.

Q: When do you see the sweepstakes ending? And which team do you think he goes to?

Feinsand: I would be surprised if Soto doesn't sign by the end of the Winter Meetings (from Dec. 9-12). He's going to start meeting with teams soon, and once he has an idea of which ones he likes most, the offers should start coming in. Unlike some of his top free agents last year (Snell, Chapman, Bellinger), agent Scott Boras isn't going to have trouble drumming up big offers for Soto. I still think this will ultimately be a two-horse race between the Yankees and Mets, and to be honest, I have no idea which one I think is the favorite. Soto liked his time with the Yankees, but if the Mets decide they won't be out-bid for Soto, it's tough to imagine Hal Steinbrenner getting into a big-time bidding war with Steve Cohen.

Q: How crazy are the Tigers willing to get after getting a taste of the postseason after a decade?

Feinsand: Given Detroit's success this year, I would expect them to be pretty aggressive this offseason. That's not to say they're signing Soto, but I wouldn't be shocked if they're in on a number of the top free agents, including , and some of the starting pitchers. But to me, getting signed to an extension should be among their top priorities.

Q: Are there any small market teams that you believe have a viable chance to sign Roki Sasaki?

Feinsand: Absolutely. The best part of Sasaki's free agency is that it won't be primarily a financial situation. Yes, teams like the Dodgers, Padres, Yankees and Mets may be seen as the favorites, but don't sleep on a team like the Rays -- who have a history of getting the most out of their players -- making an impressive pitch to Sasaki.

Q: What does the market look like for Alonso, and what are his chances of returning to the Mets?

Feinsand: Alonso's market should be solid, as he's one of the top power bats on the market. His chances to return to the Mets probably hinge on what happens with Soto; if the Mets give Soto the $500-600 million deal that is being projected, that may spell the end of Alonso's time in Queens. If he leaves the Mets, I could see the Yankees, Giants, Mariners, Astros and Blue Jays all being potential landing spots. I actually wrote about Alonso's free agency today, so check it out.

Q: Follow-up question here -- can you elaborate on the projected Soto deal? I hadn’t seen anything guessing what he’ll end up getting, so very curious what industry sentiment is right now!

Feinsand: All along, the floor has seemed to be 10 years/$500 million. But at the GM Meetings, I kept hearing that the deal will likely be in the 13- to 14-year, $625 million range. Without any deferrals, that will be the biggest contract in baseball history, as 's $700 million deal has $680 million in deferrals, making it worth roughly $460 million in present-day value.

Q: What teams do you see as suitors for ? I’m excited to see what the return looks like for a top 5 reliever two of the last three seasons.

Feinsand: Pretty much every team can use a back-end bullpen arm, so the Cardinals should generate plenty of interest if they make Helsley available, as expected. But with only one year left until free agency, I'm not sure that teams are going to pay a huge price for what amounts to a rental reliever. The same goes for Milwaukee's , who is also one year away from free agency and could be traded this winter.

Q: Who do you think is the best player to be traded this offseason that isn’t really being talked about? Most of us are pretty confident guys like or will be on the move, but is there anybody big we haven’t been hearing about?

Feinsand: We've started to hear some whispers about being traded, and given the state of the Cardinals, that could gain some steam as the winter progresses. Ditto for , who at the moment does not appear to be available, but if the Blue Jays try to extend him and become convinced they won't be able to keep him, they could have a change of heart.

Q: Some of the last remaining Astros stalwarts who have been with the team for all or nearly all of this dynasty, Bregman and , are headed for free agency. Do you think that they remain with the team, or (as more and more Astros fans are starting to predict) do they move on and find a new home?

Feinsand: I'd say it's 50/50 that Bregman remains with the Astros, who will have another big free-agent decision next year when hits the open market. It's difficult for me to see Houston signing both of them to long-term deals, so if the Astros bring back Bregman, it could be a sign that they don't think they will be able to do the same with Tucker. Verlander could also come back, though I won't be shocked if A.J. Hinch tries to bring him to Detroit; Hinch was Verlander's manager in Houston, and Verlander started his career with the Tigers, so going back to Detroit would be a nice full-circle way for the future Hall of Famer to finish his career.

Q: Is Soto going to be the first big signing or will the teams who drop out early look to pivot quickly and try to take advantage of other teams being tied up with Soto?

Feinsand: I think we'll see a few free agents sign before Soto -- Teoscar Hernández is a name that came up as one of those possibilities during the GM Meetings -- but most of the top free agents will wait. Whichever teams don't wind up with Soto will find themselves with some money to spend, so it makes sense for those players -- especially the ones also repped by Boras -- to see how the Soto situation plays out before making any decisions. Some of the small- and mid-market teams that aren't in on Soto may try to jump the market, but they're probably looking at free agents that won't be heavily impacted by Soto's decision.

Q: Why aren’t the Orioles expected to re-sign , especially with a new billionaire owner?

Feinsand: Simply put, Burnes is the top free-agent pitcher out there, and there is going to be a lot of competition for him. I don't think it's impossible for the Orioles to retain him, but he's a California native, so if a West Coast team -- Dodgers, Giants, Padres -- makes a big push for him, it's entirely possible he will head back home with a huge new contract. The Orioles are expected to spend money this winter, but if they don't bring back Burnes, there are plenty of other top starting pitching options on the market to choose from.

Q: There’s a lot of talk about the Red Sox being spenders again. Have you heard similarly, and do you think they can realistically get a Soto/?

Feinsand: I have heard that Boston plans to spend, and while they plan to meet with Soto, I'm not sure I give them much of a chance of signing him. If the Red Sox were prepared to give a player that type of money, wouldn't still be in Boston? That said, I think Burnes, Fried, and some of the other top guys out there could be interesting options for the Red Sox. They have a nice group of prospects making their way toward the Majors, but I'd expect them to be a player in free agency this year.

Q: Everyone talks about the expected big spenders, so … Any teams this offseason that you think people may be surprised by how aggressive they are in FA? Thinking sort of like how the Royals were last year, and it seemed to pay dividends.

Feinsand: I loved what the Royals did last year, and it could be a blueprint for other mid-market teams to copy. No, the Royals didn't sign Ohtani or , but were there two more impactful moves than the and signings? I picked KC to get to the postseason and was mocked for it. I could see teams like the Reds, Pirates or Nationals taking that approach this winter. It might allow them to push for the playoffs in 2025 without making enormous long-term commitments financially.