Shelves thinning out for Mariners' offseason shopping

January 7th, 2025

This story was excerpted from Daniel Kramer’s Mariners Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

SEATTLE -- This wasn’t expected to be a winter of overhaul in Seattle, but with Spring Training just five weeks away and only two very minor additions to the 40-man roster, are the Mariners running out of time and options to upgrade their offense?

Another potential fit came off the board on Monday, when the Dodgers traded second baseman Gavin Lux to the Reds in exchange for a Competitive Balance Round A pick (around No. 37 overall) and outfield prospect Mike Sirota (Cincinnati’s No. 14 prospect in the MLB Pipeline rankings, now No. 22 in the Dodgers' system).

It’s unclear whether the Mariners made a formal offer for Lux. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander said at the MLB Winter Meetings last month that they are open to dealing from the top of their farm system, which was listed at No. 9 in MLB Pipeline’s latest rankings. But they also said that they were “less likely” to deal their Competitive Balance Round A pick after securing the No. 3 overall selection in the MLB Draft Lottery.

Lux, who just turned 27 and has two years remaining before free agency, became expendable after Los Angeles signed free agent infielder Hyeseong Kim, another Mariners target, for three years and $12.5 million on Friday. Kim’s deal contained a two-year club option for the 2028 and ’29 seasons, which could increase the value of the deal to $22 million.

For the Dodgers, Kim represents a luxury utility role player to augment a roster that just won the World Series, whereas in Seattle he would have been a more prominent piece. The industry belief is that Kim’s bat could regress with a higher competitive floor in MLB, but his contact, defense and speed -- all plus -- made him coveted by the Mariners.

For the Reds, who reportedly intend to keep Lux rather than flip him, they now have an even deeper infield that already includes Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain. Earlier this winter, Cincinnati dealt second baseman Jonathan India to the Royals. (The Mariners had been linked to India in years past.)

Had the Mariners acquired Lux, he would have become their everyday second baseman, with the ability to play third base -- precisely the profile of player that Seattle has sought.

It has been a mostly quiet offseason across baseball since the Winter Meetings -- and the Mariners are hardly alone in the quietude. The Padres, Brewers, Blue Jays, Twins and Braves, among other contenders, have lacked major moves.

With roughly only $15 million for the Mariners to work with beyond their existing commitments for 2025, options were always going to be limited. Yet with an ideal shopping list for at least two infielders -- and two more logical fits landing elsewhere since New Year's Day -- it’s becoming increasingly possible that they may have to adjust.

Aside from Lux and Kim, a large swath of first-base targets are off the table, headlined by Carlos Santana, whom the Mariners pursued aggressively before he signed a one-year, $12 million deal with the Guardians. Santana, a key clubhouse figure in the Mariners’ 2022 postseason run, turned down more guaranteed money from Seattle to return to Cleveland, according to a report by The Athletic. Santana has played 10 of his 15 career seasons in Cleveland.

Santana's new contract manifested only after the Guards traded incumbent first baseman Josh Naylor -- whom the Mariners had also explored a deal for -- to the D-backs. Other free-agent first basemen whom the Mariners had discussed -- Paul Goldschmidt (Yankees) and Christian Walker (Astros) -- signed elsewhere.

It’s not so much that time is of the essence -- the Hot Stove season pressing into Spring Training has happened with increasing regularity in recent years -- but rather that the specific fits via free agency and trade are dwindling.

A reunion with Justin Turner is still possible, as both sides have expressed interest. Seattle could also pursue bounce-back candidates Brendan Rodgers and Yoán Moncada, or veteran Donovan Solano, who just turned 37. If the Padres are making three-time batting champion Luis Arraez available -- he’s been linked to trade rumors with the Yankees, per ESPN -- his elite contact would be a strong fit in Seattle.

As of now, Luke Raley is the Mariners' primary first baseman and Dylan Moore will figure into a more regular infield role. Both are coming off promising seasons, but this roster construction is certainly not Plan A.

Wish lists and shopping lists don’t always line up, and that could become a growing reality for the Mariners and their specific needs.