1.2% win odds to 100%: How Mariners did it

Seattle pulls off improbable comeback by rallying in 9th, winning in 10th at Texas

June 6th, 2022

ARLINGTON -- Things were as bleak for the Mariners as they’d been most of the season for a bulk of Sunday afternoon -- until, all of a sudden, they weren’t. And with a little dose of chaos ball, the formula they thrived with throughout last season, Seattle pulled out its most improbable, unlikely and impressive come-from-behind win of the year, a 6-5, 10-inning victory over Texas that secured a third straight series win.

How remote were the Mariners’ chances of pulling this one out when they were trailing by three runs in the ninth inning? According to FanGraphs’ win-probability metric, Seattle had just a 1.2 percent chance of winning after Jesse Winker led off the frame with a groundout. With only two outs to work with, the Mariners reached a tie, then took their first lead of the day in the 10th.

As Baseball Savant shows, via FanGraphs' metrics, the Mariners were all but out of Sunday's game.

Here’s how they strung it together:

France’s solo homer
Ty France was headed toward his fourth straight hitless game, a drought he’d experienced only once before with the Mariners, before he broke through with a solo home run in the ninth. With a 94.2 mph exit velocity (per Statcast), it had only an 11 percent hit probability and would’ve cleared the fence in only five ballparks. But thankfully for the Mariners, Globe Life Field was one of them.

Even with France’s homer, Seattle was still down by two and had been 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position to that point, leaving the club with a 3.2 percent chance to win. But it was a starting point for a spark.

“We just kept the line moving there and got some big hits,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said. “That's what it takes to win these games on the road.”

Suárez’s game-tying double
After France's homer, Julio Rodríguez and J.P. Crawford each singled to put Eugenio Suárez in position to strike with runners on the corners. The slugging third baseman had already homered in the fourth -- the first of the year off Rangers left-hander Martín Pérez, an early favorite for the American League Cy Young Award -- and had an RBI single in the fifth to extend his hit streak to eight games.

Against flamethrowing reliever Matt Bush, Suárez connected on a middle-low cutter and punched it deep into the right-field corner, likely the only spot on the field that would have allowed Crawford to score from first. And Seattle’s shortstop was flying, with a sprint speed of 28.8 feet per second, per Statcast -- well above his season average of 27.1 -- while losing his helmet in the process and surging past third-base coach Manny Acta, who was flamboyantly giving him the green light.

“Off the bat, I was like, ‘Yeah, I’m scoring,’” said Crawford, adding that he would have blown through a stop sign, if it was given. “I was going too fast to stop anyways, so yeah, I was going.”

In one fell swoop, the Mariners’ odds had increased from 16 percent to 56.

“Like I always tell the boys,” Suárez said, “‘Hey, no matter what situation we are in, we’ve got to keep the good vibes only.’ This game is so hard, and we need to make it simple and enjoy the game. It’s a long season. We’ve got a really good team, and we’ve got to trust in what we can do. This series, we did it.”

Castillo’s shutdown inning
Suárez put Seattle in business, but the game was still tied entering the bottom of the ninth. On came Diego Castillo, who in this same building blew two leads in the ninth or later last season, both via homers to Jonah Heim. This time, Castillo worked around a one-out single to Nathaniel Lowe and a stolen base by pinch-runner Eli White by striking out the other three batters he faced -- Adolis García, Ezequiel Duran and Steele Walker -- all via his slider.

“I think that's his third or fourth really quality outing, and we've needed him,” Servais said. “Again, it’s one of those nights where we come from behind and everybody chips in. We needed it to happen today, and it did not look so great. But again, I give our guys a ton of credit. They did not quit.”

Seattle’s win probability had dropped to 50 percent, given Texas would still get another chance to bat.

Moore, Toro, Sewald complete the win
Abraham Toro scored the game-winning run in the top of the 10th on a wild pitch by Brock Burke, and he was in position to do so after beginning the inning as the automatic runner and moving to third on a groundout by Dylan Moore, who reached base four times earlier. The odds were up to 64 percent, with Marcus Semien and the top of the Rangers' order looming.

Yet, Paul Sewald induced a quick flyout against Semien, intentionally walked Corey Seager to pair with the automatic runner Walker for the force opportunity and then induced two popouts from Mitch Garver and Kole Calhoun, effectively navigating the meat of Texas' order to cap Seattle’s epic comeback.

In the roughly 45 minutes between France’s homer and Sewald’s save, the Mariners’ odds of winning swung 98.8 percent, resulting in a much-needed victory.